Raffin

About 700 less cases yesterday at 5,204 but 8 labs were late to submit. Positivity was down to 10.8% from 45.4k tests. Backlog only 297. Tests on the way much lower at 28.5k.

Recoveries 5.8k

Deaths 100 with 62 RDs.

75 recoveries went to active.

Active cases 49,128

Severe 1,228, up 35 and Critical 737, down 9

NCR ICU 42%, up 2% Nationally 57%, up 1%

Regional data:

4A 841
NCR 584
W Visayas 579
Ilocos 532
C Luzon 441
Davao 390
C Visayas 389
SOCCSK 305

1 200s
5 100s

Ten regions significantly down.
Ilocos was noteworthy with a rise of 180 casesover the day before.
N Mindanao had 86 more to 223.
SOCCSKSARGEN rose by 35 to 305.


Ilocos


Zamboanga Peninsula....big improvement.

In the NCR 7 cities were down, by just a few mostly. Four were up, including Valenzuala, which added 20 to have 31.

QC 110, Manila 73, Pasig 56, Taguig 46, Caloocan 37, Paranaque 33

Provincially:

Most provinces reported less cases, except Laguna with 64 more and Quezon with 41 more.

Bataan 53
Batangas 120
Bulacan 99
Cavite 247
La Union 94
Laguna 283
Pampanga 73
Pangasinan 102
Quezon 78
Rizal 80

Selected cities:

Bacolod 31
Baguio 49
CDO 88, up 26
Cebu 99
Davao 225
Gen San 58
IloIlo 29

Bohol 55

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...-than-2/story/

A strange announcement from the DOH. Their own statistics show only 0 to 4 years not 0 to 2 years, but they show those babies and very young kids have caught 27.4k infections, that's less than 2% of all covid infections. Looking at the population In 2019 there were1.6M live births, in 2020 1.4M.
Are they trying to scare people from taking young children out?
I would think nearly all caught their covid at home.

Raffin

Reported cases about 1,600 less yesterday, 8 labs late but the fall in cases is mostly due to the usual low Sunday testing. Backlog included up a little to 490. The 3,604 cases was the lowest total since May 23. Positivity was down a little to 10.6% from 29.4k tests. About the same number in preparation.

Recoveries 5.8k

Deaths 77 with 47 RDs.

72 recoveries went to Active.

Active 46,934

Severe 1,220, down 8 and Critical 751, up 14

NCR ICU at 43%, up 1%. Nationally 56%, down 1%

Regional data:

C Visayas 506
4A 411
NCR 410
Davao 337
W Visayas 335
Ilocos 319
C Luzon 307

1 region in the 200s
3 100s

C Visayas reported 117 more cases over the day before to head a table where most regions had substantially less cases. It had 14% of all cases. Three regions had very small increases.

Top 6: 64.3%, down only 0.4%

In the NCR 11 cities had less cases. Only Manila had more.

Top 3: Manila 83, QC 68, Paranaque 34

All provinces around the NCR had less cases:

Bataan 37
Batangas 46
Bulacan 87
Cavite 147
La Union 59
Laguna 131
Pampanga 67
Pangasinan 70
Quezon 39
Rizal 39

Selected cities:

Bacolod 60, up 29
Baguio 47
CDO 33, down
Cebu 112, up 19
Davao 186, down 39
IloIlo 28
Gen San 60, up

Bohol 114, up 59


Concerning areas for the DOH:

In the NCR an increasing trend over the last 2 weeks seen in:

Manila, Makati, Las Pinas, Muntinlupa, Mandaluyong, Malabon, Navotas and San Juan.

So 8 cities out of the 16,with about a third of the population are now areas of concern!



The above came in a tweet alongside a table, which was difficult to show here.

It says the DOH are very worried about recent infection increases in the Davao region, W Visayas and the CAR.
Then hospitals. HCUR is an overall hospital measure which includes non covid ICU bed occupancy, ICUR measures covid ICU bed occupancy.

Davao is bad all round in its hospitals. In the W Visayas covid ICU is at critical risk level

Hospitals in the CAR, Zamboanga Pen and Bicol are all at high covid ICU risk levels.

Raffin

Yesterday a slightly higher 3,806 cases, 5 labs late. Positivity 11% from 32k tests. A small backlog included. Tests coming along 46.9k.

Recoveries 6.3k

Deaths 140 with 105 RDs.

Case fatality rate at 1.77%

Active cases at 44,408, the lowest since March 11

Severe 1,243, up 23, Critical 755, up 4
Severe numbers rising lately.

NCR ICU 43%, unchanged. Nationally 57%, up 1%

Regional data:

W Visayas 628
NCR 535
4A 453
Davao 446
C Luzon 267
C Visayas 242
SOCCSK 206

5 regions in the 100s

W Visayas added nearly 300 more cases and has 16.5% of all cases.
The NCR added 125.
Davao put on more than 100 over the day before.

Top 6: 67.8% , up 3.5%

In the NCR 11 cities up, 1 down substantially.

QC 93, Makati 84, Manila 76, Paranaque 49, Taguig 44

Provinces around Manila:

Moderate changes 5 up, 5 down

Bataan 78, up
Batangas 80, up
Bulacan 78
Cavite 164, up
La Union 25
Laguna 150, up
Pampanga 33
Pangasinan 54
Quezon 9
Rizal 48, up

Selected cities:

Bacolod 79, up
Baguio 96, up
CDO 34
Cebu 32
Davao 239, up 53
Gen San 63, up
IloIlo 156, up 128

Bohol 105

Philippine vaccination roll out:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/07/14/...rate-at-375059

At 375k above what the UK is doing now in the later stages of its roll out, but well below the daily UK vaccination rate 3 - 4 months ago.

Raffin

Yesterday about 16k more test results and a positivity rate lower at 10.2% to give 5,221 positives. Backlog 318. Tests on the way at 50.4k.
Recoveries at 4.1k.

Deaths 82 with 46 RDs.

52 recoveries returned to active.

Severe 1,274, up 31 and Critical 773, up 22
Over 2,000 patients now in these two conditions in primary hospitals.

NCR ICU at 42%, down 1% Nationally 56%, down 1%

Regional data:

W Visayas 689
NCR 636
4A 599
C Luzon 562
Davao 341
C Visayas 328
N Mindanao 327
Cagayan 321

1 region in the 200s
5 100s

W Visayas top again with 13.2% of all cases.
C Luzon added nearly 300 more.
E Visayas 250 more.
Cagayan nearly 200 more.
4A 150 more.
N Mindanao 139 more.
Ilocos 124 more.
Zamboanga nearly 90 more.

Top 6 regions at 60.4%, down 7%b on the day before.

The CR added 100 more cases.. Nine cities with substantially more, 4 had less. Moderate changes.

QC 124, Manila 83, Makati 61, Las Pinas 47

In the provinces around the NCR Bataan, Bulacan, Laguna and Pampanga all reported substantially more cases over the day before.

Bataan 118
Batangas 69
Bulacan 148
Cavite 158
La Union 55
Laguna 219
Pampanga 121
Pangasinan 70
Quezon 42
Rizal 95

Selected cities:

Bacolod 95,up
Baguio 45, down
CDO 35
Cebu 105, up 73
Davao 167
Gen San 60, down
IloIlo 93, down

Bohol 77, down

The President has confirmed all existing GCQ and MECQ areas until the end of July.
The only change, not highlighted, is that Cavite is now off "heightened restrictions". But Laguna stays.
Maybe our Mayor will now allow alcohol sales.

Contact tracing;

Basically in disarray. Budgetary reasons according to this:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...get-woes-dilg-
exec/story/

Raffin

About 450 more cases yesterday, 3 labs late .Very small backlog. Positivity 11% from 51.4k tests. Coming along 50,4k tests.

Recoveries 2.7k

Deaths 162, 116 RDs

28 recoveries became active

Active cases up at 48,480

Severe 1,261, down 13 and Critical 776, up 3

NCR ICU at 41%, down 1%. National 56%, unchanged.

Regional data:

4A 848
NCR 844
C Luzon 581
C Visayas 525
W Visayas 509
Davao 464
Cagayan 313

2 200s
7 100s

Region 4A added about 250 more to be top with 15% of all cases.
The NCR added more than 200 to come second.
C Visayas added 200 to come 4th.
Davao with more than 100 added took 6th place.

The top 6 regions had 66.4% of all cases, up 6%.

Ignoring the trend line and looking at the bars only cases in the inner and outer areas of the first epicentre are flattening.
Cavite plus Laguna only used as they are more connected to the NCR than the other 4A provinces.


NCR flattening..



Cavite plus Laguna flattened briefly and starting to rise,,

In the NCR 11 cities up, 1 down.
Paranaque's cases doubled. Taguig's increased by 39.
Pasig's increased by 30.

QC 145, Manila 101, Pasig 88, Makati 78, Taguig 70, Paranaque 64

In the provinces Laguna reported over 100 more yesterday. Cavite's rose by 84.
Otherwise no big changes.

Bataan 113
Batangas 127
Bulacan 132
Cavite 242
La Union 50
Laguna 323
Pampanga 115
Pangasinan 86
Quezon 39
Rizal 105

Selected cities:

Bacolod 67
Baguio 45
CDO 72, up 37
Cebu 114, up
Davao 223, up 56
Gen San 66
IloIlo 98, up

Bohol 85, up

Delta variant:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...-transmissions

Local transmission confirmed. They are just now finding cases from June. N Mindanao and Central Luzon. Only a matter of time before it spreads much more widely in a largely unvaccinated population with little existing immunity.

Raffin

Yesterday saw an additional 364 cases added, 3 labs late to produce a total of 6,040. Backlog included was 471. Positivity 10.7% from 52k cases. On the way 50.3k tests.

Recoveries 7.2k

Active cases down to 47,257

Severe 1,276, up 15 and Critical 756, down 10

Deaths 122 with 74 RDs.

NCR ICU 42%, up 1%. National 56%

Regional data:

W Visayas 900
4A 830
NCR 777
Davao 646
C Luzon 582
Ilocos 426
C Visayas 318

2 in 200s
5 in 100s

W Visayas added nearly 400 more cases at 14.9% of all cases.
Davao added 182, Ilocos 143. Cagayan 138 to report 195 cases.

Top 6: 68.9%, up 2.5%

In the NCR all cities no significant change or just small changes.

QC 149, Manila 110, Pasig 74, Makati 69, Las Pinas 53, Paranaque 53

Provinces around the NCR likewise:

Bataan 116
Batangas 107
Bulacan 159
Cavite 265
La Union 43
Laguna 266
Pampanga 88
Pangasinan 128
Quezon 53
Rizal 113

Selected Cities:

Bacolod 191, up 124
Baguio 39
CDO 75
Cebu 98
Davao 314, up 91
Gen San 55
IloIlo 120

IloIlo (rest of) 206
Aklan 141
Neg Occ 117

Bohol 23

Delta variant threat:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...story/?just_in

A return to more restrictions in the NCR and around a real possibility.

Raffin

A fall of about 600 cases yesterday. Four labs late. Results up to date from 52k tests. In preparation 46.6k tests..

Recoveries 5.4k

Deaths 117 with 82 RDs

Severe 1,274, down 2 and Critical 755, down 1

NR ICU 42%, unchanged. Nationally 55%, down 1%

Regional data:

4A 813
NCR 706
C Luzon 529
W Visayas 502
C Visayas 491
Davao 487
Ilocos 355

2 in the 200s
6 100s

4A top with 15% of all cases. The E Visayas the biggest gainer region adding over 170 cases to 229.
The CAR, Bicol and SOCCSKSARGEN all gained between 50 and 80 cases..

The top 6 regions with 65.2% of all cases, down 3.7%

Only 2 NCR cities with more cases. Caloocan added 30.
Eight had significantly less.

QC 128, Manila 95, Makati 67, Caloocan 59, Pasig 52, Taguig 50

Provincially changes were moderate. Except Bataan had 83 less and Bulacan had 46 more.

Bataan 33
Batangas 102
Bulacan 205
Cavite 254
La Union 49
Laguna 274
Pampanga 124
Pangasinan 89
Quezon 68
Rizal 84

Selected cities and areas:

Bacolod 22, down
Baguio 74, up 35
CDO 79
Cebu 88, down
Davao 214, down 100
Gen San 55
IloIlo 79
Lapu Lapu 38

Aklan 127, down
IloIlo 119, down
Neg Occ 72, down

Latest Vaccination figures from ABS-CBN:

By July 14 4.05M 2 vaccs 7% of revised 57M target in 4 months.

Raffin

Yesterday a modest increase of 241 cases. Positivity at 11.0% from 50.4k tests including a backlog of only 109 results. A much lower test number in preparation at 32.5k.

Recoveries 5.3k.

Deaths 72 with 39 RDs

Severe 1,284, up 10 and Critical 761, up 6

NCR ICU 43%, up 1%. Nationally 54%, down 1%

Regional data:

NCR 941
4A 808
W Visayas 771
C Visayas 653
C Luzon 427
Davao 326
Ilocos 324

200s 2 regions
100s 4 regions

NCR regained top position with 235 more and 16.7% of all cases.
W Visayas in 3rd place added 269 more.
C Visayas in 4th added 162 more.
N Mindanao added 90 to 277 cases.

Top 6 regions 69.5%, up 4%.

In the NCR 7 cities had substantially more cases. Only 2 had less.

Adding the most cases Manila, QC, Taguig and Valenzuala...all around 40 to 50 more.

QC 169, Manila 147, Taguig 94, Makati 73, Valenzuala 66, Las Pinas 55, Caloocan, Pasig 52

Provinces:

Bataan had 78 more added yesterday.
Rizal 29 more
La Union had 200 less.

Bataan 111
Batangas 114
Bulacan 157
Cavite 292
La Union 43
Laguna 231
Pampanga 76
Pangasinan 48
Quezon 49
Rizal 113



Selected cities and areas:

Bacolod 154, up 132
Baguio 66
CDO 154, up 75
Cebu 197, up 109
Davao 194
Gen San 76
IloIlo 88
LapuLapu 80, up 42

Aklan 150
IloIlo 203, up 84
Neg Occ 96, up

Bohol 87

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...variant/story/

The President also warning of more restrictions. But how far are they willing to go if cases are going up everywhere, including the NCR. Which they could because vaccinations there are low. Close down business again? How will they keep people from starving?

"You must get the vaccine or you die" Really? Anyway, where are the vaccines for the general population?

By July 18 4.7M 2 doses given.
Deliveries 27.8M

Raffin

About 150 less cases announced yesterday. But 10 labs late and testing always down at the weekend, which it was by about 16k. So not much of a reduction. Positivity 10.9% from 34.6k tests and a similar number in preparation. I don't expect test numbers to be high this week due to the rains. Which will also aid virus spread.

Recoveries 5.2k

30 recoveries went active.

Deaths 58. No info on RDs.

Severe 1,264, down 20 and Critical 749, down 12

NCR ICU 42%, down 1%. National 54%, unchanged

Regional data:

NCR 693
C Visayas 606
4A 496
C Luzon 394
Davao 382
Ilocos 382
W Visayas 381
SOCCSK 332

No 200s
5 100s

Only 2 regions with increases, Davao added 56 more, SOCCSKSARGEN added 87 more.
The NCR maintained top position with 15.3% of all cases.

Top 6 regions at 65.4% of all cases, down 4%.

All NCR cities had less cases except Paranaque with 10 more added and QC with 34 more than the day before.

QC 203, Manila 127, Taguig 63, Makati 54, Las Pinas 40, Pasig 36, Paranaque 35

Provincially around the NCR all had less cases, except Pangasinan which had 42 more:

Bataan 37
Batangas 60
Bulacan 104
Cavite 248
La Union 46
Laguna 79
Pampanga 91
Pangasinan 90
Quezon 12
Rizal 90

Selected cities and areas:

Bacolod 26
Baguio 53
CDO 37
Cebu 105
Davao 186
Gen San 82, up
IloIlo 38
LapuLapu 52

Aklan 129
IloIlo 87
N Occ 55

Bohol 230, up 143


https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...to-1-06/story/

NCR R number now estimated by OCTA to exceed 1.0.

Vaccination progress:

Paranaque is one of the more well organized cities. Claiming 35% of the "target population" vaccinated.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...mayor-olivarez

Taguig Mayor points out a major omission in the restrictions:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=1

But he's wrong to suggest it was always a rule under GCQ. At the most advisory. Maybe it was considered and thought to be inappropriate to the Philippines, but certainly more could have been done with advisories.

Raffin

Yesterday there were about 2k more cases than on Tuesday but they included a large backlog of well over 2,000. I would guess test processing was affected by the Eid holiday. Four labs were late. Positivity at a higher 12.1%. Tests in preparation 47.9k. Expect testing will fall and delays will worsen as a result of the atrocious monsoon rains affecting C and N Luzon areas.

Recoveries 5.4k

Deaths 32 with 30 RDs

Severe 1,247, down 17. Critical 768, up 19.

NCR ICU 42%, unchanged. Nationally 55%, up 1%

Regional data:

NCR 1027
4A 880
C Visayas 816
W Visayas 805
C Luzon 735
N Mindanao 389
Cagayan 373

3 in 200s
4 in 100s

NCR back to more than a thousand with 334 more than the day before. Had 15.7% of all cases.
C Luzon and 4A both added a similar number of cases.
Cagayan added over 200 more.

In the Visayas W Visayas added more than 400, C Visayas more than 200.

N Mindanao's cases tripled.
Zamboanga's doubled.

The top 6 regions had a higher 70.9% of all cases.

In the NCR 9 cities up, just 2 down moderately, QC and Taguig.

QC 158, Manila 164, Makati 84, Caloocan 56, Las Pinas 53, Paranaque 51


NCR cases levelling..

Provincially:

Cavite cases were about the same but Bulacan's and Laguna's rose substantially.
Cases in Bataan, Batangas and Pampanga increased by 70, 90 and 93.

Bataan 107
Batangas 150
Bulacan 242
Cavite 251
La Union 31
Laguna 310
Pampanga 184
Pangasinan 78
Quezon 52
Rizal 92

Selected cities and areas:

Bacolod 65, up
Baguio 60, up
CDO 73, up 36
Cebu 287, up 182
Davao 190
Gen San 60
IloIlo 146, up 108
Lapu Lapu 89, up

Aklan 151, up
IloIlo 223, up 136
Neg Occ 95, up

Bohol 73


Cebu City

There doesn't seem to be one major reason for the new wave highlighted in reports.


Davao City's last wave started in late April. Recent falls in new cases have ceased.

So looking at the NCR, Cebu and Davao over recent months we see that when control in major cities at last seems to be working the virus is soon able to resume increases. Relaxations in restrictions, public observance of protocols and maybe new variants when positivity data shows the WHO level of 5% is never achieved over 2 weeks. Testing has tended to fall off with the fall in cases so perhaps one lesson is to show caution and maintain testing levels:


Good to see testing lately has not fallen so much with falls in positivity. But is it high enough in the first place?

Raffin

Yesterday new cases were more than 700 less at 5,828. Five labs late in submitting. But up to date results with 12.0% positivity from 47.9k tested individuals. The DOH said their COVIDkaya system had had some "technical issues". Not clear what that affected in their results.

Recoveries low at 3.3k

Deaths 17 with 15 RDs
For two days in a row deaths have been nearly all RDs.

Active cases up at 50,562

Severe 1,264, up 17 and Critical 758, down 10

NCR ICU 44%, up 2%. Nationally 54%, down 1%

Regional data:

Not yet forthcoming. Will update later.

NCR R number estimated by OCTA at above 1.0, after 3 months below 1.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...to-1-06/story/

The OCTA suspect the NCR is in the early stages of a new surge, possibly due to the Delta variant. Manila and Makati leading but a few other cities are of concern.

The latest ABS-CBN figure for NCR 2 doses vaccinations was 1.2M by July 4. Since then the DOH are now claiming 150,000 a day average vaccinations in the NCR. If we say the most 2nd doses cannot be more than 100,000 a day that gives another 2M in the 20 days since. Its probably much less. So by now no more than 3.2M people in the NCR have had 2 doses. In line with Paranaque City recently saying they have doubly vaccinated 35% of their target population.

OCTA also produced this chart of the situation in cities around the country over the previous week:



Mariveles, Bataan is something of a special case. It has a population of well over 100,000 but the majority of its nearly 600 active covid cases are linked to barracks of sub contractors in its economic zone. Many of them constructing a power station.

Raffin

July 22 DOH covid report update:

Tests coming along down to 43.1k

Regional data:

NCR 979
4A 775
C Visayas 656
W Visayas 651
C Luzon 563
Ilocos 442
N Mindanao 373

200s 1 region
100s 6

NCR down just 48 cases to be top with 16.8% of all cases.

Only 4 regions increased their cases. The rest had less.
Ilocos cases increased by 153, Caraga's by nearly 100, the CAR's by nearly 50.

The top 6 regions: 69.8%, down 1%

Similarly in the NCR. All but two cities had less cases. They were Pasig with 21 more and Taguig with 30 more.

Manila 138, QC 110, Makati 82, Taguig 75, Pasig 55, Paranaque 54, Caloocan 50

Provincially around the NCR small changes, mostly down:

Bataan 67
Batangas 74
Bulacan 195
Cavite 275
Las Union 34
Laguna 226
Pampanga 121
Pangasinan 74
Quezon 62
Rizal 104

Selected cities:

Bacolod 55
Baguio 44
CDO 155, up 82
Cebu 174
Davao 100
Gen San 57
IloIlo 122
LapuLapu 144, up 55

Aklan 175
IloIlo 129
Negros Occ 98

Bohol 70

https://www.rappler.com/nation/depar...nt-philippines

The Delta variant now officially locally spreading here. Only a matter of time before they have to use the term "community". A variant with a much higher viral load, so it is much more spreadable. Making the Philippines revised vaccination target of 58M even less protective of the population.

abner

Raffin, with respect to OCTA's table, are you able to supply their definitions for each column? I can guess at most, but more precision would be appreciated, if available.

Bealinehx

Raffin maybe offline for a while because of the earthquake at 04.50 this morning the epicentre is not that far from where I believe he resides. Secondly he may be experienced problems resulting from the heavy rains that we are currently having.

Raffin

Yes B, correct on the power, it just came back after the lindol. The strongest for some time here. Yes, the source off Calatagan not too far from where we are to the west of Tagaytay. Otherwise the rains and wind withstood by the electrical system around here, to their credit Meralco have done some good work improving the system recently.