Raffin

Weekly report

National cases were at 2,756 last week. Up 73% on the week before. About three times the increase a week ago.on the previous week.

NCR cases up 78% with 1,346. A week ago they rose 30% on the previous week.

For its largest cities:

Caloocan an outlier with only an increased 33 cases for the week.

Otherwise:

QC x 1.7 303 cases.
Manila +64% 171
Pasig x 3.0 141
Paranaque x 1.8 115
Taguig +52% 76

These cities with 77% more cases than last week. So little different from the other 11 cities.

Latest OCTA NCR report with more detail (a slightly different "week" to mine).


Region CL had 46% more cases. Bulacan 63 cases, adding 20 over the previous week.
But region 4A x 2.6. Both Cavite and Rizal provinces x 2.4 cases.

Visayas cases doubled. WV x2.2, CV x1.8.
IloIlo City x3.2 with 82 cases.
Cebu City with 45 cases.

In contrast Mindanao cases rose only by 3%.
None of its regions with more than 50 cases.
Iligan City only 3 cases. CDO 16, Zamboanga 27, GenSan 20, Davao 34 cases.

So NCR cases increasing at a faster rate. The adjoining 4A region having a large case increase after a fall last week. Region CL increased its cases moderately.

Dr J Campbell talking about the likely soon to be dominant worldwide Omicron BA 4 and 5 variants as the cause of a recent UK infection uptick:


ONS more accurate survey data showing small uptick 2 weeks ago in UK infections.


Purple line BA.2 variant. Variant BA,1 can now be discounted so the blue line now is all BA 4 and 5.

BA.4 and 5 more transmissible through higher immune escape. So likely to become quickly dominant.
Seemingly prior vaccination and Omicron infection not providing much protection against re-infection.
Greatly weakening the case for boosters.
He also mentions that the ONS report a small recent UK increase in the generally more serious Delta variant infection number in the UK.

Last, another ONS chart showing covid much worse than influenza, now and in the past.

Raffin

Yesterday 27 more cases reported than on Friday to 612. While testing fell by 1k on Saturday to 17.5k.
Active 4,529, up 353

Location detail

The NCR up to 293 and a higher 48% of all cases. Its 6 biggest cities total up to 193. QC 71, Paranaque 33, Manila 31.

Region CL down to 37, 4A also down to 78. Cavite 26, Rizal 21.

The Visayas regions with a big increase over Friday to 123 cases. WV 69, CV 35. IloIlo City 30.
Mindanao lower at 39.

The DOH will publish their weekly report later today when we will see weekly hospital data. Daily data not published for some time.

Raffin

Yesterday 529 cases from a much lower Sunday testing at 13.2k.
Active 4,270, up 211

Location detail

NCR 279 and 53% of all cases. Top 6 cities 162 cases, QC 59, Manila 36, Paranaque 31.

Regions CL and 4A both up slightly to 43 and 83 cases.
Cavite 23, Rizal 20 cases.
These 3 regions at 77% of all cases.

Visayas 59, Mindanao 38 cases.

DOH weekly report.
Not yet on their site. Details from GMA.

New cases 3,051 (1,682) up 81%.
Deaths 6 None in the week. Latest Jan 2022.
Severe+Critical 554 (498)
New patients 15 (8)
ICU 14.6% (16.6%)

Raffin

Yesterday 120 less at 409 cases. Tests on the 20th up to 16.8k.
Active 4,860, up 120

Location detail

NCR lower by 61 to 218 cases and a lower 43% of all cases. But its 6 biggest cities with only 10 less at 152. QC 66, Manila 26. Paranaque 22.

Regions CL and 4A both down to 31 and 58 cases. Bulacan 16, Cavite 24, Rizal 14 cases.
These 3 regions with 75% of all cases.

Visayas down to 48, Mindanao also down to 34 cases.

Bealinehx

The latest Dr John video on natural immunity very interesting. A few interesting comments towards the end of this presentation!
https://youtu.be/eGUJJIdjVSQhttps

Raffin

"There are non trivial effects from vaccination" says Dr John towards the end of the video.

Suoer Sally has posted about Cebu. Partly about the low levels of covid there even though the Governor is being pressured to reverse her EO on mask wearing but also about the spike in covid deaths there on October 2021, which she has written about before:




The deaths in that spike generally had positive tests many days before their death.




A mass vaccination drive started on October 18, 2021.

Cebu update on cases and deaths. Newsletter June 21.

https://supersally.substack.com/

Raffin

Yesterday up 184 to 593 cases. Tests up to 20k Tuesday.
Active 5,113, up 273

Location detail

The NCR up 86 to 304 and 51% of all cases.The six largest cities 198. QC 64, Manila 44, Paranaque 30.

CL up 14 to 45. Bulacan 17. 4A up 36 to 94. Cavite 31 cases.
These 3 regions again with 75% of all cases.

Visayas well up to 86. IloIlo City 25.
Mindanao cases up a little to 44

Raffin

Cases yesterday up nationally by 123 to 716. Tests down slightly to 19.4k.
Deaths 11
Active 5,523, up 410

Location detail

The NCR 322 and 45% of all cases.Its 6 largest cities with 215 cases. QC 62, Manila 47, Pasig 42.

Positivity:

The NCR recently 5.7%. Nationally 4.7%
QC, its largest city, 4%.

Region CL down 10 to 35.
But 4A up 63 to 157.
For those unfamiliar with region 4A large parts of Cavite, Laguna, Rizal and even futher away Batangas provinces are closely related to the NCR, many commuting daily from there to the NCR, and some the other way.
Cavite 47, Rizal 33, Laguna 27, Batangas surprisingly 47 cases yesterday. Although many commute from Batangas it may be generating its own uptick.
These 3 regions at 72% of all cases.

The Visayas also saw more cases, 20 more to 106.
WV put on 12 to 64. IloIlo City 28.
CV 27. Cebu City 14.

Mindanao up 7 to 51 but small numbers in its cities.

Elsewhere Baguio City had 14 out of the CARs 15 cases.

Raffin

Yesterday an increase to 770 cases. ABS-CBN say highest since March 6, Testing the day before about the same at 19.6k.
Deaths 12
Active 6,068, up 85.

Location detail

The NCR up 51 to 373 and a higher 48% of all cases. Cases in its top 6 cities added 25 to 240. QC 77, Manila 52, Pasig 35,,Paranaque and Taguig 34. Caloocan maintaining low numbers with 8.

Region CL up slightly to 46..
4A down 20 to a still high 137 cases. Laguna 42, Cavite 36, Rizal 33 cases.

These 3 regions at 72% of all cases.

The Visayas up 18 to 124 cases.
Both WV and CV regions with increased cases..

Mindanao up 5 to 56. Highest so far this week.
Its city reports in single digits.

SE Asian new cases comparison:
(Worldometers).


Indonesia


Malaysia



Thailand



Philippines

The Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia showing the first signs of an increase in cases.
While the Philippines has stopped publishing national Genome test reports Indonesia produced one on June 9, 145 Omicron BA.4 and 5 variant cases. These variants the subject of a very recent Dr John video, which is worth watching.

https://en.antaranews.com/news/23601...cases-ministry

Raffin

Yesterday 7 more to 777 cases and a 1k increase in testing the day before.
Active: 6,425, up 357.

Location detail

The NCR down 20 to 353 and 45% of national cases. Its 6 largest cities with 218 cases. QC 74, Manila 52, Pasig 31, Taguig 30 cases.

CL up 1 to 47. Bulacan 15 cases.
4A up 28 to 165. Highest this week. Cavite 62, also a high for the week. Batangas 37, Rizal 32, Laguna 25 cases.

These 3 regions with 73% of all cases.

Visayas 109 cases. IloIlo City 26 cases. Cebu City 23 cases.
Mindanao 49 cases.

Weekly report later.

Raffin

Weekly report

Last week a 60% increase in national cases over the previous week. Less than the 73% increase the previous week over the week before.

The NCR had a 59% increase, compared to a 78% one the week before. But the NCRs 6 largest cities not in line with a 77% increase over the week before.
QC 473, Manila 288, Paranaque 196, Pasig 193, Taguig 149 and Caloocan 61 cases.

The CL region had the same 46% weekly increase as last week.
Region 4A had a higher 69% increase. But last week it was x2.6 over the week before. Cavite numbers increased by 47% but last week its figures more than doubled.
Cavite 252, Rizal 169 cases.

It was the same picture in the Visayas.
WV increased by 55%, CV by 45%. But increases much less than last week.
Bacolod 22, Cebu City 92, IloIlo City 142......a 73% increase.
Tacloban City 1!

Mindanao was an exception. A small increase last week but a 51% one this week. But all of its regions with less than 100 cases for the week.
Davao City with the greatest number of cases at 55.
Iligan City 1 case!

So case increases have slowed dramatically over last week. Too early to say if this means that again the Philippines will have a much milder Omicron variant surge than many other countries.

NCR cities to Alert Level 2?

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/25/...risk-for-covid

The DOH talking about 4 cities going to their "moderate risk" level given case increases and some hospital utilization increases.
But so far not saying much about a move to Alert Level 2, with its business capacity and travel restrictions. That's partly because they are probably going to continue the policy of treating the NCR as a whole, not differentiating by city.

Here is the IATFs definition of Alert Levels 1 and 2:



Not entirely clear to me for AL2! The first condition seems to me to have left out intensive care Otherwise the same as AL1.
But it seems to me we are now in the second possibility to declare AL2..".....or case counts low but increasing". Let me know if you read it differently!

That it has not been declared is to me a good sign that the IATF will sensibly not slavishly follow these levels. Especially in the NCR where hospital capacity nearby cities which are under pressure can be utilized.

Raffin

Over 70 more cases announced yesterday at 848. Latest test number down to 18.5k.
Deaths 11
Active 6,761, up 336

OCTA said positivity June 19-25 was at 4.9%, up from 3.1% the previous week.

Location detail:

The NCR up 44 to 353 cases and 47% of all cases. Its 6 largest cities having 221 cases, only 3 more.
QC 60, Manila 46 cases.

CL up a few at 56. Bulacan 33.
4A down a few at 148. Rizal 51, Cavite 46.
These 3 regions at 71% of all cases.

The Visayas up 40 to 149. IloIlo City 37. Cebu City 21.
On a rising trend.

Mindanao up slightly to 53. Davao City 12.
Also rising but at a much slower rate.

Raffin

Yesterday most results came from Sunday testing, low at 13.5k. Despite that cases went up to 867.
Deaths 51
Active 7,087, up 326

Location detail

NCR up 37 to 434 and half of all cases. Its 6 largest cities 259 cases. QC 103, Manila 55, Paranaque 41.

Region CL at 59, 4A at 158. Both slightly up.
Bulacan 23, Cavite 51, Laguna 44..

Visayas down to 118 cases. IloIlo City 31.
Mindanao also down to 48 cases.
Very low numbers from its main cities.

DOH weekly report

New cases 4,634 (3,051), up 52%.
Deaths 51...only 6 from 2022.
Severe and Critical:
Admissions 591 (554)
New patients 14 (15)
ICU 14.9% (14.6%)

The hospital system not under strain. Just that if the past experience with covid here is a guide a large percentage of patients ill with covid don't get admitted to DOH primary hospitals.

Positivity data from OCTA:
Creeping up.

National at week to June 26: 5.7%
NCR 5.9% on 25th...but on June 26 it was up to 7.5%.

Some provinces nationwide:

Raffin

Yesterday 576 new cases.Sunday testing. Tests 19.4k on the 27th.
Deaths 13
Active 7,192, up 105

Location detail

NCR down at 282 and a slightly smaller share of all cases at 49%.
Its 6 largest cities 169 cases. QC 47, Manila 39.

CL down 19 to 40, 4A down 62 to 94. Cavite 34, Rizal 26.
These 3 regions at 72% of all cases.

Visayas 19, Mindanao 47.
Davao City again 18 cases.


Latest DR J video:


UK by March 2022. Won't be as high here but a review of vaccinations for schoolkids seems necessary.

Raffin

Yesterday an increase of over 200 to 781 cases. Tests Monday up to 23.6k.
Deaths 11
Active 7,202, up 10.

Location detail

NCR 367 and down slightly in its national share to 47%. Its 6 biggest cities 201. QC 78, Manila 46.

CL up 36 to 76.. Bulacan 24.
4A up 32 to 128. Cavite 45, Laguna 32, Rizal 22

Elsewhere in N Luzon the CAR with a notable increase at 32. Baguio City 26.

The Visayas up 24 to 114. IloIlo City at 31. Cebu city 12.
Mindanao down to 39. Continuing its remarkably low figures.

NCR cities:

The five that went to moderate risk now reclassified to low risk by the DOH:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...metrics/story/

As you can read they removed the two week case growth metric. So unless cases increase greatly we should avoid going back up to Alert Level 2 and all its restrictions in the NCR and around. Especially as hospitals can still cope with the increase in less severely ill patients. While the Alert Levels are not linked to the DOH risk classification this shows the authorities are willing to make relaxations to keep the economy growing in the current new covid wave, just starting now.

Cebu City to resume full capacity face to face schooling:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/29/...o-face-classes

In a High School I am familiar with in Upper Cavite pupils in year 11 were all offered 3 months ago to resume school attendance 4 days a week, 5 hours daily. In lieu of the modular arrangements. Take up only about 50%. Rather than fear of catching covid one presumes many households made new domestic arrangements which they were unwilling to change. This would be mandatory.