NCR llockdown

Old May 22nd 2021, 11:24 pm
  #871  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

An increase of 573 cases to add 6,831 to the total. Four labs did not report. Included a backlog of 484 cases. National positivity stable at 13% and 40.4k tests on individuals are in preparation.
Recoveries 8k.

Deaths again high at 183, 131 of them RDs. These latter deaths seem to be from patients not in primary hospitals and from the last month and not further back in time. But the DOH never say anything and nor do the media. Death and regional case data are the two covid stats the DOH do not seem to want widely known.

Active cases 54,326.
Severe 1,032, up 32...Critical down 16 at 761.
NCR ICU at 61%, up 5%!

Regional data (200 cases and over)

NCR 1,408
4A 1,247
C Luzon 1,064
W Visayas 442
Zamboanga Pen 371
C Visayas 304
N Mindanao 299
SOCCSK 293
CARAGA 218
MIM 204

Only one region, BARMM, in two digits.
NCR at 20.6% of national cases, down.
C Luzon up by about 250 cases, Zamboanga up by 201..
SOCCSK up by nearly 200.
Cagayan down by about 100,

Top 6 regions at 71.5%, up a little
NCR bubble 38.3%, down 1.6%.

In the NCR Makati added about 50 more, Taguig 30 more and Caloocan 25 more than the day before.
QC added 39 less, Pasay 22 less.
Otherwise case numbers fairly stable.

QC 313, Pasig 140, Manila 134, Caloocan 129. Makati 107.

Provincially bubble provinces Cavite, Laguna and Rizal added more cases but Bulacan had 248, the same as the day before.
Batangas added 36 less.
Pampanga added 81 more to record 217 cases.
Pangasinan added 33 to report 101 cases.

For selected cities:

Bacolod 45, down
Baguio 53
CDO 122..again high
Cebu 44
Davao 119, up
IloIlo 55, down
Puerto Princesa 28
Zamboanga 192, up 142!

On vaccine roll out here:

https://www.rappler.com/nation/filip...urvey-may-2021

Obviously a lot of work to be done to change public attitudes so in some ways the late arrival of vaccines here not such a bad thing.

International comparisons:


By case numbers..



By new cases May 20..

Philippines at 15th, but we rose to 10th position on May 21.

Also, two days ago Philippine deaths per million was at 178, the same as Indonesia. Yesterday the Philippines rose to 180. Indonesia at 178.





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Old May 23rd 2021, 10:40 pm
  #872  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

The DOH announced only 3,083 cases yesterday. Held over 3,160. A large number of cases which could not be added due to problems with their data repository system. They don't say anything about those cases. In addition 3 labs were late and on that they helpfully tell you that in the past those labs contributed about 2.5% of positive cases. So we are probably missing about 80 cases. Positivity was once again 13% from 42.9k tests.

Recoveries 6.8k.

Deaths 38 with 25 of hem RDs.
Also 1,478 cases have been deactivated as duplicates!

Active cases 50,635.
Severe 1,013, down 19. Critical 760, down 1.
NCR ICU 60%, down 1%.

Location data:

As more than half the positive results have been held back I will just give a summary and concentrate on locations with an increase. No national share statistics.

Regions:

The top 3 regions all fell by around 800 cases:

NCR 613
4A 456
C Luzon 260

Regions showing an increase:

CAR up 13 to 156
E Visayas up 55 to 169
Davao Region up 24 to 217

All others down.

For the NCR all cities down.
Top 3: QC 172, Manila 59, Las Pinas 57 (!)

All provinces surrounding the NCR were down except for Quezon province, 12 up.

Change in Quarantine for NCR plus and other areas announced for rest pf May though announced late:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ictions/story/

Fairly meaningless with all the "heightened restrictions".

Stop press: IloIlo City put up to MECQ.
Daily average cases up by 3 times in May so far over April.
Lots of workers in City Hall infected.

Two of the Philippine's neighbours:

Malaysia announces a daily record 6,976 cases. Though it has had less than half the cases of the Philippines. Interestingly it now has more active cases, 57k, though that may be due to definition differences.


Malaysia with higher second wave..



Indonesia's cases falling, though a little erratically..

Still only 3.6% of the population fully vaccinated. (Philippines less than 1%.)





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Old May 25th 2021, 12:00 am
  #873  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday was getting back to normal. although cases are likely lower two days after the weekend. I say "getting back" as 937 cases were held over. Positivity 12.8% and a low 31.6k tests in preparation. Also 6 labs not submitting. The DOH continuing to help us estimate the effect of that, after a year when sometimes as many as 20 labs were not reporting. Better late than never though. They say the 6 late yesterday have contributed 1.3% of positive cases recently. So maybe would add 60 or 70 more.
Recoveries 6.7k.

Deaths 39 with 18 RDs.
Active 48,917.
Severe 1,027, up 14 and Critical 783, up 23.

NCR ICU 61%, up 1%

:Location data: (200 and over)

4A 1,041
NCR 1,034
C Luzon 477
W Visayas 389
N Mindanao 267
Cagayan 225
Bicol Region 212

Only ahead by 7 cases but for once Calabarzon leading the NCR to take top position.
NCR at 20.8% of cases.
Notable is the rise of Bicol to 7th position.

Top 6 regions with 69% of national cases.

Most NCR cities with more cases after the DOH data repository issues fixed.

QC 209, Manila 114, Pasig 99, Las Pinas 82, Makati 75, Caloocan 68
Las Pinas joining the group of more populous cities that usually lead with cases.

All provinces surrounding the NCR with many more cases so the NCR bubble at 39.5%, up 1.2% on the previous figure.
Laguna had 230 more cases than on the previous day to lead at 335.

For selected cities:

Bacolod 72
Baguio 15, down
CDO 103, nearly doubled
Cebu 36, up
Davao 80, down but still higher than earlier in May
IloIlo 66, up
Puerto Princesa 66, up
Zamboanga 109, up

Bohol 67, up

Angeles 18
Tarlac 20

Vaccination roll out:

The Philippines vaccination roll out needs to take into account the recent increases outside the NCR and surrounding provinces:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ovid-19/story/

Aid and economic stimulus:

The Bayanihan 3 Bill being considered in the House of Representatives.. A few thousand pesos more ayuda included. Confusingly some back pension pay for the military also included. And a proposal to give P10k to each positive case!!
But the main problem is the source of the money.
Looks like it will not be implemented until much later this year.

https://www.rappler.com/nation/house...em-may-24-2021

An example of what can happen in some provinces:

Negros Oriental:


Rapid recent rise in cases...

Its main city is Dumagete, pop about 150k, though for some reason the DOH do not include it in their daily data report.

This Rappler report mentions 184 active cases and details the pressure health care facilities are under in the province:

https://www.rappler.com/nation/negro...aming-may-2021









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Old May 25th 2021, 11:51 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Daily reports continue to look lower but test positivity is high and has only fallen a little recently. So yesterday 13.1% from 32.1k tests. Additionally 10 labs did not report on time. Inconsistent messaging from the DOH in that no estimate of what that means for extra cases missing from these 10 labs was given out. Also 235 cases were held over for some reason. Testing numbers can be expected to be down from the weekend effect and so tests coming along are only at 33.2k.


The steep fall in positivity is at least paused, yet tests continue to fall...

Recoveries 4.7k

Deaths 36 with 10 RDs.
Cumulative official total now over 20,000.

Active cases 48,201
Severe 1.012, up 1 and Critical 771, up 11.
NCR ICU 58%, down 3%.

Regional data:

4A 569
NCR 525
C Luzon 471
N Mindanao 337
Zamboanga Pen 273
W Visayas 240
Cagayan 225

For the second day 4A had more cases than the NCR, although both had less than the day before. The NCR with only 13.2% of national cases.
Notable falls in the three Visayan regions. W Visayas fell by 149, Central by 80 and Eastern by 124 cases.
But N Mindanao reported 70 more and Zamboanga 132 more cases.
The CAR had 111 more than the previous day, at 162 cases.

The top 6 regions with a lower 60.8% of national cases.

In the NCR the top 6 cities were:

QC 170
Taguig 57
Manila 51
Pasig 40
Paranaque 33
Caloocan 31

For provinces around the NCR all except Pangasinan, with only 31 cases, reported less cases.
Laguna stood out with 111 cases, 224 less than the day before.

The NCR bubble was at 27.5% of national cases, much lower than for the previous day.

Selected cities:

Bacolod 47, down
Baguio 42, up
CDO 72, down
Cebu 30
Davao 96, up
Gen Santos 41
IloIlo 42
Puerto Princesa 96
Zamboanga 164, up 55

Bohol 12, down

Angeles 12, down
Tarlac 69, up 49


General Santos City









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Old May 26th 2021, 11:43 pm
  #875  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday a higher 5,310 new cases announced with 4 labs late submitting. Backlog of 405 included. Positivity back up a little to 13.5%. from 36.6k tests. Tests coming along at a higher 46.2k.
Recoveries at 8k.

Deaths at a higher 150, 86 of them RDs.
Severe at 1013, up 1, Critical at 783, up 12

NCR ICU 57%, down 1%

Regional data (200 and over)

4A 1,025
NCR 988
C Luzon 657
N Mindanao 401
Zamboanga Pen 287
C Visayas 266
W Visayas 255
CARAGA 233
CAR 230

NCR at only 18.6% of national cases and again second to Region 4A.
Both regions added around 450 more cases.
The other leading regions all added more cases.
SOCCSK added over100 less.

The top 6 regions had 68.2% of national cases, nearly 8% more than the day before.

For the NCR QC added more than 100 on the day before. Manila's cases more than doubled. Pasig had 89 more. Caloocan had 60 more, as did much smaller Muntinlupa.
QC 276, Pasig 129, Manila 108, Caloocan 91

Looking at the charts for all NCR cities one feature lately is that the daily DOH announcements are often weeks after dates of infection. This can be seen from the divergence of the trendlines (by date of announcement) from the bars (by estimated date of infection}


QC


Manila


Marikina clearly showing much delayed reporting recently.

One hopes the decision makers take account of this when deciding on their next moves on Quarantine levels.

Provincially all NCR bubble provinces had more cases.
Cavite 126 more, Laguna nearly 140 more, Rizal 69 more and Bulacan 26 more.
Batangas had 58 more but Pampanga had 55 less.

Cavite 346, Laguna 250, Rizal 175 and Bulacan 155.

The NCR bubble had 36.1%, up nearly 9% on the day before.

Selected Cities:

Bacolod 54
Baguio 105, up 63
CDO 78
Cebu 38
Davao 89, still higher
Gen Santos 42
IloIlo 45
Puerto Princesa 51, down
Zamboanga 70, down 94

Bohol 51, up

Angeles 74, up 62
Tarlac 70, up 1

Herd Immunity

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/05/26/...ion-protection

The infection and vaccine reality here moving the Philippines to the more nebulous goal of "population protection".
I've also heard this called " covid containment".

So in many countries, certainly here, probably years before covid 19 gets down to being like influenza. Keep your mask!

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Old May 27th 2021, 11:45 pm
  #876  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Over 1k more cases yesterday at 6,483, 6 labs late in submission. Including a backlog of 499 cases. Positivity down a little to 12,5% from 47.9k individuals tested. Tests on the way down a little at 45.7k.
Recoveries lower at 4.3k.

Deaths the highest since April 10, when there were 225.
RDs at an amazing 139

I will look at deaths regionally tomorrow.

Active cases 48,109
Severe at 1,010, down 3 and Critical 770, down 13
NCR ICU unchanged at 57%.
But Central Luzon ICU at 69%. and Region 4A ICU at 68%.

Regional location data (200 and over)

NCR 1,327
C Luzon 824
4 A 764
Cagayan 627
W Visayas 594
Davao 290
SOCCSK 267
Bicol 241
Zamboanga 236
C Visayas 220
CARAGA 218
N Mindanao 208

The NCR returns to the lead with 339 more cases than the day before, 20.5% of the national total.
Region 4A was down by 260 cases but C Luzon had 167 more.
Cagayan was up by close to 400 cases.
W Visayas added well over 300 more.
SOCCSK added close to 200 more.
Bicol put on over 100 more.

N Mindanao fell by nearly 200 on the day before.

Top 6 regions 63.6%, down.

For the NCR seven cities had substantial increases. Three fell significantly.
Makati added 76 more, Las Pinas 50 and Pasay 52 more.

Cities with 100 and over: QC 302, Pasig 121, Makati 115 and Manila 111

Provincially in the NCR bubble only Bulacan had more cases, nearly 40, than the day before, Cavite, Laguna and Rizal all reported less.
Laguna led with 226 cases,
NCR bubble was at 31.6% of national cases, down.

Pampanga added 91 more to report 191.

Selected cities:

Bacolod 98, up
Baguio 43, down
CDO 110, up 32
Cebu 29
Davao 178, up 89
Gen San 115, up by over 70
IloIlo 100, up 55
Puerto Princesa 23, down
Zamboanga 125, up 55

Bohol 37, down

Angeles 51, down
Tarlac 59, down

A bad hospital situation in a far away island:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/05/27/...urge-hospitals

The latest OCTA report:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...23-octa/story/

A good summary but I would not agree that positivity at 10% in the NCR is "slightly higher" than the WHO target of 5%. It's double. While they estimate R at a much lower 0.52 testing has fallen and more opening up is being considered. Add to that the imminent change to wetter weather and new variants, so the prospects for the NCR are probably at the upper level of "moderate risk".
For C Luzon particularly and 4A the risk looks a little greater, though still just about moderate.
But yes, recent case rises in cities and municipalities in the Visayas and Mindanao should be given more attention as there testing is more difficult and hospital facilities are very inadequate.
Vaccination a long way away from helping with only 1M, fully vaccinated and 3.5M having had the first dose. (according to Johns Hopkins).

Noteworthy that despite the recent fall in national cases the levels are still at or higher than at the peak of the August 2020 surge for the three main centers of the pandemic here:



The same can be seen for the NCR plus "bubble area":


NCR plus bubble



Strong evidence from Italy presented by Dr John recently on You tube on the level of infection transmission protection provided by vaccine.







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Old May 28th 2021, 3:21 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Originally Posted by Raffin
Over 1k more cases yesterday at 6,483, 6 labs late in submission. Including a backlog of 499 cases. Positivity down a little to 12,5% from 47.9k individuals tested. Tests on the way down a little at 45.7k.
Recoveries lower at 4.3k.

Deaths the highest since April 10, when there were 225.
RDs at an amazing 139

I will look at deaths regionally tomorrow.

Active cases 48,109
Severe at 1,010, down 3 and Critical 770, down 13
NCR ICU unchanged at 57%.
But Central Luzon ICU at 69%. and Region 4A ICU at 68%.

Regional location data (200 and over)

NCR 1,327
C Luzon 824
4 A 764
Cagayan 627
W Visayas 594
Davao 290
SOCCSK 267
Bicol 241
Zamboanga 236
C Visayas 220
CARAGA 218
N Mindanao 208

The NCR returns to the lead with 339 more cases than the day before, 20.5% of the national total.
Region 4A was down by 260 cases but C Luzon had 167 more.
Cagayan was up by close to 400 cases.
W Visayas added well over 300 more.
SOCCSK added close to 200 more.
Bicol put on over 100 more.

N Mindanao fell by nearly 200 on the day before.

Top 6 regions 63.6%, down.

For the NCR seven cities had substantial increases. Three fell significantly.
Makati added 76 more, Las Pinas 50 and Pasay 52 more.

Cities with 100 and over: QC 302, Pasig 121, Makati 115 and Manila 111

Provincially in the NCR bubble only Bulacan had more cases, nearly 40, than the day before, Cavite, Laguna and Rizal all reported less.
Laguna led with 226 cases,
NCR bubble was at 31.6% of national cases, down.

Pampanga added 91 more to report 191.

Selected cities:

Bacolod 98, up
Baguio 43, down
CDO 110, up 32
Cebu 29
Davao 178, up 89
Gen San 115, up by over 70
IloIlo 100, up 55
Puerto Princesa 23, down
Zamboanga 125, up 55

Bohol 37, down

Angeles 51, down
Tarlac 59, down

A bad hospital situation in a far away island:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/05/27/...urge-hospitals

The latest OCTA report:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...23-octa/story/

A good summary but I would not agree that positivity at 10% in the NCR is "slightly higher" than the WHO target of 5%. It's double. While they estimate R at a much lower 0.52 testing has fallen and more opening up is being considered. Add to that the imminent change to wetter weather and new variants, so the prospects for the NCR are probably at the upper level of "moderate risk".
For C Luzon particularly and 4A the risk looks a little greater, though still just about moderate.
But yes, recent case rises in cities and municipalities in the Visayas and Mindanao should be given more attention as there testing is more difficult and hospital facilities are very inadequate.
Vaccination a long way away from helping with only 1M, fully vaccinated and 3.5M having had the first dose. (according to Johns Hopkins).

Noteworthy that despite the recent fall in national cases the levels are still at or higher than at the peak of the August 2020 surge for the three main centers of the pandemic here:



The same can be seen for the NCR plus "bubble area":


NCR plus bubble



Strong evidence from Italy presented by Dr John recently on You tube on the level of infection transmission protection provided by vaccine.
Good work as per usual Raffin. Thanks.

However one thing that is not clear in my mind is that Dr John states that 97% of the health workers vaccinated cannot pass on the virus. I understood that those vaccinated can still contract and pass on the virus. But the vaccination greatly reduces the symptoms of the vaccinated person. It appears that I and many others have got ii wrong.

Regards
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Old May 28th 2021, 4:26 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

P11,
As I understand it. Once fully vaccinated full efficacy applies (depends on the vaccine given). However, some have made the unfortunate error in thinking once they have had the first dose all is Hunky Dory. Not true. Partial efficacy kicks in after about 21 days after the first dose.
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Old May 28th 2021, 6:23 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Originally Posted by Bealinehx
P11,
As I understand it. Once fully vaccinated full efficacy applies (depends on the vaccine given). However, some have made the unfortunate error in thinking once they have had the first dose all is Hunky Dory. Not true. Partial efficacy kicks in after about 21 days after the first dose.
Thanks B. Makes sense.

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Old May 29th 2021, 2:26 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

A much higher total yesterday of 8,748, which was boosted by a nearly 2,500 backlog of past results. Pointing to problems in the testing system, which have been evident for some time. The latest tests amounted to just over 49k. Tests coming along 43.8k. Positivity slightly up at 12.8%.
Recoveries at a low 3k.

Deaths 187, 122 of them RDs.
Active cases 53,770.
Severe 968, down 42...Critical 753, down 17.
NCR ICU 57%, unchanged.

Regional data (300 and over)

NVR 1,630
C Luzon 1,415
4A 1,322
Cagayan 886
W Visayas 544
Zanboanga 363
Davao Region 357
C Visayas 301

No region below 100. Just 3 regions had less.
NCR led and reported over 300 more than the day before, 18.6% of all cases. Both C Luzon and 4A had a little less than 600 more cases.
Cagayan had nearly 260 more.
Zamboanga 127 more.

Top 6 regions with 70.4% of all cases, up nearly 7%.

NCR cities: only three substantially down, nearly all the rest up.
Both Caloocan and QC had about 120 more.
Marikina reported 45 more yesterday than the previous day.

QC 424, Caloocan 192, Pasig 148, Manila 128 and Makati 113 were the cities with 100 and over.

NCR bubble at 33.9%, up

Provincially all around Manila had more cases.
In the NCR bubble Cavite 473, Bulacan 316, Laguna 308, Rizal 235
Pampanga had more than 100 more at 309 cases.

Selected cities:

Bacolod 128, up
Baguio 45
CDO 132, up
Cebu 45, up 16
Davao 163, down 15, but high
Gen San 79, down
IloIlo 131, up 31
Puerto Princesa 28, up 5
Zamboanga 121, down 4

Bohol 41

Angeles 61, up 10
Tarlac 177, up 118!

Deaths: a large number again reported yesterday. The Philippines case fatality rate at 1.7%, about halfway down the international league table. World average about 2.2%. and a few months ago in 2020 it was close to that here. But we must bear in mind Philippine testing is not at a level commensurate with a national test positivity of well over 10% . So lately its case reporting is probably a few thousand lower than it should be.
Below the latest DOH charts which show deaths by date of occurrence.
Ignore trendlines as they are calculated from date of announcement, often weeks later.


NCR


Calabarzon


C Luzon




C Visayas


W Visayas


Cagayan


Davao Region

Two regions, C Luzon and Cagayan Valley, have seen their recent peak in deaths to be much higher than their 2020 peak.
Region 4A also had a somewhat higher 2021 peak.
The NCR and the two Visayan regions had lower peaks.
Too early to talk about a new peak for Davao as its cases have only recently started to rise again.

Reporting delays of about one month most evident in the NCR, 4A and W Visayas.
Delays in C Luzon and C Visayas were much less.
I'm sure the mysterious RDs, which now must amount to at least 5k of the more than 20k official deaths from covid here, are a major reason for these delays.

Cagayan death reporting particularly erratic lately so the trend difficult to see.
That may be common in the more remote regions. I will look at more of them another time.

Vaccination incentives:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...he-same/story/
https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=2

Good move here, they love lotteries.
CNN US interviewed a 21 year old graduate yesterday from Ohio who has just won 1M dollars in a a vaccination lottery there.





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Old May 30th 2021, 1:26 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

About 1,300 fewer cases announced yesterday. Included a sizeable backlog of 1,638 cases .Two labs late. Slightly lower positivity at 12.5%. Tests coming along 42.1k.
Recoveries 7.5k.
Deaths again high at 156 with 91 RDs.
More on deaths in the regions below.

Active cases 53,614
Severe 965, down 3 and Critical 751, down 2
NCR ICU 58%, up 1%

Regional data:

4A 1,171
NCR 1,154
C Luzon 787
W Visayas 685
Cagayan 591
N Mindanao 489
Zamboanga Pen 346
Ilocos 284

All regions had 100 or over cases.
The top 3 regions all had hundreds less cases, C Luzon with more than 600 less than the day before.
The NCR with only 15.5% of national cases.
N Mindanao put on 272 more cases, W Visayas added 140 more.

The top 6 regions gave 65.5% of all cases, down 5% on the day before.

In the NCR 8 cities had substantially less cases. QC had 218 less.
Paranaque added 33 more, Taguig 23 more.

For the NCR bubble provinces Bulacan, Cavite and Rizal all had less cases. Laguna had 46 more to lead with 354.
Batangas added 18 more, Pangasinan added 37 more at 101.
The NCR bubble share was at 30,7%, down 3%.

Selected cities:

Bacolod 82, down 46
Baguio 68, up 23
CDO 34, down 98
Cebu 34
Davao 153, down 10
IloIlo 184, up 53
Gensan 63, down 16
Puerto Princesa 24
Tarlac 73, down 104
Zamboanga 85, down 36

Cases rising outside the NCR plus bubble says the DOH U Sec:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/05/29/...ases-may282021

Yes, we know that!
She also says they are monitoring it closely to inform the public. So, for a start, how about simply returning to what you did originally which is to announce regional numbers daily?

Some more Luzon death charts from the DOH:


CAR


Ilocos



Bicol Region

The CAR has had the most infections, 35k. Ilocos 22k and Bicol only 14k.
Deaths in the CAR have fallen, though somewhat erratically, recently, while for Ilocos and Bicol they are probably on a rising trend. Bicol especially seems to be badly affected by reporting delays, judging by its record back to 2020.






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Old May 30th 2021, 9:45 pm
  #882  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

A slight reduction in total cases to 7,058 yesterday as tests started at the end of last week have been processed. Four labs late to report. Tests still not keeping up as there was a 1,127 backlog included in the 44.9k results. Positivity up 0,7% at 13.2%. Tests on the way at a similar 42k.

Recoveries 6.9k

Deaths high again at 139 of which 80 were initially classified as recoveries.
The Philippines case fatality rate up to 1.7%.
Severe in a primary hospital 968, up 3. Critical 753, up 2.
NCR ICU down 4% to 54%. the National ICU higher at 58%.

Regional data:

4A 1,242
NCR 1.189
C Luzon 813
Cagayan 570
W Visayas 477
N Mindanao 348
Davao Region 311
Bicol 287
Zamboanga Pen 286

Calabarzon kept the lead over the NCR by adding 71 more cases over the day before. The NCR at 16.9% of all cases.
SOCCSK added 76 more, Davao 47 more, Bicol 52 more and BARMM 30 more.
All 3 Visayan regions had less cases.
Less cases were also added in the CAR, Ilocos and Cagayan regions.

The top 6 regions with 65.7% of all cases. Unchanged.

In the NCR 6 cities had more cases and 6 had less.
QC stood out with 118 more cases,
Valenzuala added 31 more and Muntinlupa 17 more.

The top cities were: QC 334, Taguig 112, Manila 89, Caloocan 88, Pasig 80

Provincially Cavite featured with 140 more cases to report 430 cases.
Bulacan and Laguna were about the same.
Rizal had more than 100 less.
Pampanga added 53 more to 154

The NCR bubble at 32.9%, up more than 2%..

Selected cities:

Bacolod 79
Baguio 58
CDO 127, up 93
Cebu 44
Davao 181, up 28
IloIlo 99, down
Gensan 63
P Princesa 17
Zamboanga 96, up 11

Bohol 37

Angeles 26
Tarlac 36

Vaccination roll out details from ABS CBN Data Analytics:


Davao has only used 35% of vaccines supplied. CAR and E Visayas 64%.

In the NCR:


QC and Manila unsurprisingly the NCR cities which have vaccinated the most. Caloocan with a population about half a million less than Manila lagging.
Note that Pasig,Taguig, Makati and Las Pinas seem to have concentrated on first doses.


More analysis of regional covid deaths:


E Visayan deaths rising recently.


N Mindanao showing reporting delays but clearly covid deaths on the rise recently.


CARAGA also with a steep recent rise in covid deaths.


SOCCSKSARGEN with steep recent rise in deaths


Zamboanga Pen with a record of reporting delays. Recent steep rise.


BARMM...Oh dear!

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=1

OCTA worried and rightly so about a covid surge in the Visayas and Mindanao making the point that it could re-infect the NCR, where the R estimate has increased from 0.5 back up to 0.68 recently. Positivity there just under 10%. With only 4.5M doses administered to the nation so far this is a distinct possibility.







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Old May 31st 2021, 10:41 pm
  #883  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday cases down somewhat at the start of the weekend depressing effect on testing. So 6,684 cases, 3 labs late. Positivity up 0.5% to 13.7% out of 44.3k tests. Results included a backlog of 618. Tests in preparation from the weekend much lower at 30.6k.
Recoveries at 6.1k.

Deaths 107 and 57 of them RDs.
Active cases 54,290 and 977 patients in a Severe condition, up 9, 760 Critical, up 7.

NCR ICU 53%, down 1% (57% nationally).

Reginal data (300 cases and over)

NCR 972
4A 934
C Luzon 753
W Visayas 684
N Mindanao 419
C Visayas 388
SOCCSK 370
Davao 333

Only 3 regions in the 100s, none below 100.
The NCR had 200 plus less cases and was at a low 14.5% of cases. Region 4A fell more, by 300 plus cases.
The W and C Visayas regions both put on more than 200 new cases. E Visayas added 44 more.
SOCCSK added over 90 more and N Mindanao added 71 more.
CARAGA had 42 more than the previous day.

The top 6 regions had 62.1% of all cases, a fall of 3.6%

In the NCR Pasig had 53 more cases.
QC's cases fell by 99.

QC 235, Pasig 133, Manila 97, Caloocan 86, Makati 75

Provincially Bulacan, Cavite and Laguna all reported less cases, Rizal had 11 more.
The share of the NCR bubble went down nearly 6% to 27.1% of total cases.
Laguna had by far the most cases at 307.
Also noteworthy was that Batangas reported 84 more cases at 302.

For selected cxities:

Bacolod 137, up 58
Baguio 43
CDO 220, up 93
Cebu 36
Cotabato 45
Davao 171
IloIlo 129, up 30
GenSan up 12
P Princesa 27
Zamboanga 82, down 14

Bohol 105, up 68

Angeles 37
Tarlac 86, up 50

Quarantine areas:

A presentational cock up on the duration but NCR plus stays under "GCQ plus heightened restrictions" until mid June.
This gives the national situation:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/05/31/...-2021-mecq-gcq

On vaccination hesitancy:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/05/31/...-hesitancy-doh

The DOH do need to educate the public, but also to tell the truth about the lower and more doubtful general efficacy of Chines vaccines. Explain that they will mainly give good protection against severe illness and death. They probably won't admit that.
I think another factor here is that people have been generally keeping away from doctors and hospitals for over a year now. Some with chronic conditions may be wondering, with some justification, if having the vaccine will lead to a bad side effect.








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Old May 31st 2021, 10:55 pm
  #884  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Agree totally on the need for the authorities to place greater emphasise on public education. Reinforcing the message regarding preventing infection, and accurate information regarding the efficacy of all available vaccines.
I sense that there is suspicion regarding Sinovax(60% efficacy?) among the population. The South China Sea problem perhaps reinforces that.
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Old Jun 1st 2021, 12:39 am
  #885  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

The Sinovac shot seems to be more accepted in other countries, so yes , I agree special factors like the S China Sea, China's role in illegal drugs, their flouting of labour laws, dominance in business etc apply here.
This Bloomberg article suggests the real world performance of the vaccine is better than the trial data;

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...al-world-study

The main argument should be there isn't much choice here now and won't be for some time. I think the leader here would also like to say that we need to use their vaccine to keep close and get the benefits of more infrastructure, keep the US offering more assistance, playing one super power off against the other. But he may be realising that is now believed by many fewer people here than a few years ago.
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