mikemike

we are now entering the coolest 3 months in a la nina episode...........what affect, if any?

Raffin

Seems that less humidity makes it more difficult for our noses to clear viruses so maybe it will aid transmission, but studies are difficult to do, as this interesting review of research done so far explains:

https://www.bing.com/search?q=effect...16&FORM=CHROMN

Raffin

Yesterday 1,387 new cases, 1,038 from 26.9k tests. That's 75% recent. Labs not reporting 13. Tests on the way a higher 32.6k.

Top 5 locations:


Batangas was on a consistent downturn but is persistently finding many new cases. Davao del Norte first time in top 5.


Davao del Norte new cases.

More detail tomorrow.

Deaths at 7, critical at 1,380 down 13.

More detail on December 8 cases:



Cases in NCR down to about 220 recent; for 4A down to about 160.

For the NCR:




Some concern about Makati, it's now regularly near the top of Manila cities, its attack rate is now the third highest amongst the cities at 2.26%. behind San Juan and Pasay.



Quezon not showing again, seems there the outbreak has started a downturn.

The Island of Masbate new entrant.


Masbate on a second wave.


Mankayan is one of the smaller municipalities in Benguet, pop about 40k.
NCR, 10 out of its 17 cities featuring.

Raffin

Announced December 10 were a consistent 1,383 new cases with 9 labs not reporting. Just over 20k individual tests conducted and 1,151 postives.....a higher rate of 5.7%.
Tests coming along at a higher 32.6k. Cases a higher 83% recent.
Top 5 places:

Top was QC, followed by Laguna and City of Manila.

More detail tomorrow.

Deaths at 24 with 11 RDs.
Critical 1,389, unchanged.

Locations of December 9 cases:


Other Mindanao 55, 17 E Visayas, Bicol and Ilocos both 13.
NCR more like 280 recent, Region 4A 190 recent.


Paranaque 14, Las Pinas 10.
QC, as often, top.
Note the Makati number.



All Region 4A provinces except Cavite in the top 10.
Note Isabela from Ulysses struck Cagayan.
Davao del Norte new entrant (see yesterday's report for chart).


Top 3 are NCR cities. The NCR contributed more than 26% of national cases.
Batangas City at 5th place.

A look at Calabarzon:
Ignore the trend line as it is calculated from all cases, not just the recent ones.

Its provinces:


Laguna flattening.


Cavite also.


Rizal unclear probably flattening but maybe rising.

Batangas has levelled for some weeks.


Quezon an exception...downward for now.

Last, an interesting BBC article on covid in South Dakota, USA.
One county went against the anti mask Governor:


Read more at https://www.bbc.com/news/55216518

Raffin

The DOH announced 1,504 new cases yesterday, but a higher 12 labs not reporting. At least 1,300 were positive out of 22.3k tested so a 5.8% rate. Recent percentage 83. Tests coming along 29.8k.
Top 5 locations:


City of Santiago in Isabela (pop about 140k) with 297 cases up to yesterday, just one added the previous day. Seems a testing effort was completed yesterday.


More detail tomorrow.

Deaths 8 with one RD.
Critical 1,392, up just 3.

More detail on cases from December 10:


Other Mindanao 30,MIMAROPA 17,Bicol 11.

More like 290 recent cases for the NCR, 180 for 4A.

Plus Pasay and Marikina both 8.



NCR and Davao cities make up the top 5 followed by two Benguet locations and then by a new entrant.... Burauen in Leyte.


As with most of Calabarzon provinces (see my report yesterday) the NCR showing a clear flattening after many weeks of falls in new cases.

Yesterday the Health Secretary here listed the country's hotspots as Davao City, Laguna, Rizal , Baguio City and Benguet . But as these and previous daily tables lately show there are now many "warm spots" around in other areas as the outbreak here spreads, while still not being fully under control in the primary epicenter of Manila.

Raffin

The DOH added 1,301 yesterday, just 5 labs did not report. The positive rate was 4.5% on 24.4k individual tests. Positives were 85% recent. Tests in progress 26.4k.
In the top 5 locations:

Davao del Norte top with 96, QC next with 76.


Davao del Norte

More detail tomorrow.

Deaths 35.
Hallelujah! Fourteen deaths were re-tagged as recoveries. But as usual...4 recoveries were really deaths.
Critical at 1,388, down just 4.

More detail on December 11 cases:


Plus other Mindanao 55, Bicol 19 and MIMAROPA 16.

Recent cases for NCR about 260. For 4A about 200.


QC well ahead, as is often the case.

Cases in QC now rising slightly.






Davao City the only one in 3 digits;


Davao City seemingly had started to downturn, but note the high weekly variation lately and now a new large case haul.

As usual the majority of NCR cities are in the table.
This is why. Cases have been falling but the NCR reproduction rate estimate has been rising:




International news:

You may remember that since July Turkey has not been counting asymptomatic infections. They have now decided to with the third highest count of new cases yesterday and in eighth place in the world table of total cases belatedly a raft of new restrictions have been brought in.

Canada has overtaken the Philippines to take 27th position:


Japan is on a much higher 3rd wave:

Raffin

Announced yesterday just over a thousand new cases. Nine labs not reporting. The 1,085 (all recent) were from 26.6k individuals tests (4.1% positive rate), with 32.1k tests coming along.
There has been a moderate increase lately in testing:


Top 5 locations:


Four of five NCR cities. Note that the NCR R number latest estimate is now 0,99.
More detail tomorrow.

Yesterday was a mass recovery day (9.3k)
Deaths 3.
Active cases now 21,980, that's more than 600 less than a week ago.
Critical 1,385, down 3 on yesterday.

More detail on cases from December 12:


Plus 32 other Mindanao, MIMAROPA 9.

Adjusted for time of onset, NCR recent about 310, 4A about 200.


Plus Caloocan City 11, Marikina City 10
Note that Makati and Pasig consistently showing high numbers pf new cases despite having much smaller populations than the usual leaders, QC and Manila.


All Calabarzon provinces showing except Batangas.


Dominated by 11 NCR cities.
One city, Panabo, has the majority of Davao del Norte's cases.

This week compared with the previous one?

Cases at 10,269 (19,283).
Deaths 203 (196)
No significant change.

Last, Indonesia's covid woes continue...yesterday over 6k new cases and 166 deaths with those general levels consistent for the last few days.

Raffin

Yesterday another 1,339 new cases, 9 labs did not report. Positives 856 from latest 21k tests, so only 64% of results recent. Positivity was a low 4.1%.

Top 5 locations were:


QC again top with a large total.
A look at QC would be interesting, but DOH website down.

Deaths 24 with 2 RDs.
Critical list at 1,465 so a big increase in a day of 80..???

More detail on cases from December 13:


Plus 9.
All cases recent.


Plus Marikina 13,Mandaluyong 12, Navotas 10




NCR cities make up the top 5 and the majority of the 20.

Internationally:


Canada pulling away from the Philippines.
Switzerland another European country with a second wave..however their latest number of 10k+ new cases is for 3 days not 1.

Raffin

Yesterday added 1,135 cases with 13 labs not reporting. The positives found from testing were 862 from only 18,8k tests so a 4.6% rate. So only 76% results were recent. Tests coming along 23.0k.

Top 5 locations:



Rizal showing a steep uptick:




Bulacan up and down last few weeks, but we know from experience that its figures will likely soon be going up.


QC figures rising slightly last few weeks..

Deaths 56 with 20 of those RDs.
Critical 1,377. The day before the numbers critical went up by a surprising 80. Now down by 80. So no change recently!!!

Philippines case fatality rate now up to 1.95%. (world average about 2,2)

More detail on yesterday's cases?

Strangely not available on the DOH website.

Their data tracking website has got un user friendly lately. Before you get to it you now see some pretty irrelevant information about a government IT project!

See for yourself: http://www.doh.gov.ph/covid19tracker

Raffin

Mask plus full face shield now needed everywhere "public" in the country! Looks like a panic measure. Don't think it will do anything much to reduce transmission of the virus and I'm sure the experts know that. An anti poor measure also as many people walk along the streets with their shields up to make it comfortable in the heat. There is plenty of evidence that the IATF is mainly a rubber stamp for the government. The D of Transport recently pushed through their ill thought cashless tollway request as an anti virus measure.

The government sees the figures for areas like the NCR and desperately wants to avoid a new wave. But it was warned months ago about the risk of that in the traditionally long build up to Xmas here but still claimed great progress against the virus and reduced testing, even when positivity rates were not low enough in many areas for long enough.

What they could have done was to limit household mixing in some way, following many countries abroad. They have already exhorted people to do that. Yes, it would be difficult to enforce and it's too late now, But even if only a minority followed it would surely do more ,as an indoor measure ,to limit virus transmission than this latest shield ordinance?

Maybe the discussion went along the lines that we can't be seen on cell phone video going into people's houses, whereas we can send enforcers along the streets to catch violators.

Bealinehx

All I can add to the latest post by Raffin is that when I went on to my trouble free visit to BI Taytay the transit through Cainta was enlightening. Why enlightening? I observed with a degree of horror the number of people not wearing facemasks. So whatever the IATF says is not being taken too seriously in some areas. I wonder what the true situation regarding transmission rates is in the more remote provinces.

Raffin

Yes, I'm sure that's a reason infections are spreading quickly in some areas away from the 6 or so main established "epicenters".

Around here in a semi provincial area near Tagaytay mask wearing seems to be well observed and many face shields are to be seen.

Like many things here a lot depends on the Mayor/vice Mayor in charge. Our area has had just a few cases but we delayed returning here from Manila as the local Mayor up to mid October was imposing more restrictions on movement than we were under in Manila. Especially for over 60s. One day a week for going to the fresh market and only allowing you to go to one designated supermarket. You even had to get a special pass to visit the small town with banks, pharmacies etc 8 kms away. Those in charge in our subdivision, 6 kms from the Municipio decided to play along. With the result that even now we need a mask to walk around its sparsely populated windy streets. Will we now need a face shield too?

What about tourist areas like Tagaytay, where there are streets with souvenir shops? Not very enjoyable for visitors. Also beaches? Aren't they public.?

Doesn't also make sense to impose this everywhere, regardless of Quarantine status.

Raffin

The DOH reported another 1,156 cases yesterday, consistently now under 2k for many days. Strangely there were nearly 150 more positive results from recent testing, 1,303, than the number reported. Just 5 labs did not report. Positivity was at 5.5%. Tests on the way at 28.9k latest, up from 23.1k the previous day. So some increase in testing coming along. Sensible with positivity above 5%.

Top 5 locations:


Davao City in triple digits again. Although new cases have started to fall from a recent peak there is a serious lagged effect seen on its hospitals:


Davao City latest utilisation.

Also note Rizal again featuring with a significant count.

Deaths at 21 with 2RDs.
Critical at 1,393. Up 16.

More detail on December 15 cases.

Now available.


Plus other Mindanao 14, MIMAROPA 10, E Visayas 5.

More like NCR 210 and 4A 200 recent cases.


The usual suspects leading in the NCR.


All Region 4A provinces with Rizal leading in triple digits.


Note Cainta, which got a mention in this thread yesterday. Its really a part of MM.

Raffin

Refused entry this morning to a Robinsons supermarket in Tagaytay as over 65, but it was okay Monday. Needed a barangay pass the guard said. Another Robinsons 5 kms away, not in Tagaytay, was okay. A Mall in Tagyatay was also ok.

Bealinehx

Was someone looking for a Christmas goody????