Gazza-d

A simple way of looking at the R number is that for an R of 1.5 if 10 people are infected they would infect another 15 people.

Raffin

Yes, thanks Gazza. What I wrote last night should have been:

"NCR R at 1.5 maintained through March would lead to over 2,000 NCR cases a day at the end of the month. Reducing R to 1.2 soon can reduce this substantially to around 1,500"

Raffin

Yesterday again over 2k cases at 2,037. That included a backlog of about 1k results. Positivity was again high at 7.5%. and was from only 14k tests. Only 17k tests in preparation.
Four deaths. Weekend reporting often delayed.
Those in a severe condition 729, critical 793..almost unchanged recently.

Location detail March 1:


Other Mindanao 21






NCR giving 42.5% of national cases. The adjacent Region 4A 9.9%. The two combined 51.4%. NCR with 14 out of its 17 cities in the top 20.
Manila with a very high number. Pasay down from its recent high numbers. The top 4 cities also included QC and Makati and they made up 54.5% of NCR cases.
Central Visayas at 15.5% of national cases, with nearly all again from Cebu province. Cebu City with 48% of them.

Cases and deaths for the last week of Feb:

Average cases per day 2,138 (week before 1,715, so an increase of nearly 25%).
Average daily deaths 32 (down from 80).

Internationally:




The Philippines will soon catch up Pakistan.

Raffin

Another report of over 2k cases yesterday, 2,067, and a number likely to have been reduced by 8 labs not reporting. Positives at 6.9% from a lowish 20.5k tests. A baclog of about 600 results included. Tests on individuals coming along 23.2k. The testing numbers lately are low for a time of increased cases and positivity:


Deaths back higher at 42 and 30 of those were RDs.
Case fatality down at 2.13% .....due to the recent case rise.
Severe unchanged, critical down just 2 at 729 and 773 resp..

March 1 locations:


Plus Bicol 10, E Visayas 8









NCR alone had 40.1% and 4A 11.2% of national cases. So the two together making up over half national cases. The NCR had 12 of its cities in the top 20.
QC and Pasay Cities dominated the NCR numbers with 182 and 169 cases. Then Manila, Makati and Paranaque. Added together these 5 cities made up just over two thirds of the NCR total. Paranaque maintains its increased numbers recently with 57 cases. Pasay numbers were up greatly on the day before. Presumably some mass testing going on there.
Cebu City with nearly 58% of the island's cases, which had nearly 91% of the C Visayas region's cases. Mandaue and LapuLapu Cities added another 16.5% of Cebu cases so a quarter of Cebu island;s cases were from elsewhere.

News on the SA variant here:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...variant/story/

Dr John gives a favourable verdict on Sinovac's Coronavac vaccine, Telling as he is always stressing the need for evidence and with Coronavac there is presently a lack of published evidence:



The one dose Janssen vaccine getting a two dose trial here. Though one dose here would be good for this vaccine and others as the country so late with vaccines and cases are increasing:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/02/...m-efficacy-doh

The President setting a good example on vaccination:

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/140194...-to-secure-eua

Raffin

Yesterday 1,783 new cases from 27.3k tests with a higher 7.9% positivity. Nearly 400 results were not announced and held over. Also 7 labs did not report. Tests coming along lower at 23k.
Deaths at 20 with 14 RDs.
Severe and Critical reported both at 771, so Severe up 40.

Location details difficult to get, but here are some:

NCR 737, 4A 159, Central Visayas 357, CAR 106, Central Luzon 104.
So NCR at 41.3%, 4A 21.6%. So nearly 63% for the two together.
With Central Visayas just over 70% of national cases.
In the NCR QC was 140, Pasay 88, Manila 87, Makati 74, Paranaque 57.
Cebu City 166, LapuLapu 65, Mandaue 56 made up over 80% of the region's cases.
Good news: Davao City only 24.

Vaccine news:

https://www.rappler.com/nation/elder...-priority-list

It tells you something that senior prisoners were initially left out.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/03/...nt-expert-says

The "expert" quoted here is the same one who pushed the anti-vax fake news about AZ's covid vaccine, which I gave a link to here on March 1.
He's a part time molecular biologist as he's also a Reverend. He is doing some research on vaccines but that doesn't make him an expert. The problem is that the media here is too quick to describe people as experts. Partly because they get so little information from the official experts.

...and because those people are often misleading....like here..

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...story/?just_in

What we have in Manila is not a "spike". It's the beginning of a new surge or wave.

Gazza-d

I thought they brought in a law in the Philippines about peddling fake news. There are concerns about the efficacy of the vaccines against the South African variant, that's all the vaccines but they do still prevent hospitalization and death.

Raffin

At last! The DOH took until midday to give the locational detail for yesterday. Maybe not surprising, given the alarming numbers.

Yesterday 2,452 cases, all recent and more than 60 positives were held over. Positivity from 25.7k individuals at a higher 9.8%. Tests coming along at 32k.
Deaths at 15, 5 of them RDs.
Active cases the highest for 3 months at over 37k.
Severe and Critical in hospital both up 11 at 782.

Locations for yesterday:











NCR with 42.3% of cases, 4A with 11.1%. So the two together made up over half the national cases.
Central Visayas at 16.5% and Western Visayas at 6.1%.
So the top 4 regions contributed over three quarters of national cases.

In the NCR Pasay City led with more cases than QC, despite the large disparity in their population size.
It may be relevant that 3 out of the 6 SA variant cases came from Pasay City.
But over 1k daily cases in the NCR has not been seen for many months.
Thirteen out of the 17 NCR cities in the top 20.
The top 4 cities in the NCR also included Manila and Malabon and alone gave 53% of NCR cases.

Cebu made up over 93% of Central Visayas cases. Cebu City 44% of them, Together with Mandaue and LapuLapu the 3 cities contributed over 82% of the island's cases.

Vaccine news:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/04/...till-effective

The negative stuff from the OCTA expert about AZ and the SA variant knocked on the head by the WHO.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/03...bank-economist

Necessary to say that obvious thing as the President is looking at opening up, even as a new wave is starting.

Lastly a long article from Rappler on the murky business going on with the President's favourite vaccine, the one given illegally to his guards and others late last year:

https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/in...odrigo-duterte

Gazza-d

I wish someone at abs-cbn could be slapped up the side of the head every time they incorrectly use he word inoculation when they are talking about vaccination. It makes them sound like they don't know what they are talking about.

Raffin

NCR cases continue to rise and so we have the highest announcement this year, 3,045 new cases. Five labs did not report. All recent tests numbering 32k at 9.2% positivity.
Coming along 33.5k test results.

Deaths at 19, 3 of them RDs.
Severe 761 and Critical 802, down 21 and up 20. For the minority in a hospital!
Active cases now over 40k.

Location data again difficult to get:

NCR 1,279, Central Visayas 441, Region 4A 335, Central Luzon 251, CAR 149
These 4 regions made up 80% of the cases. NCR dominated at 42%.
The majority, 53%, came from the NCR plus region 4A.

In the NCR the cities were:

QC 233, Pasay 180, Manila 147, Makati 135, Caloocan 98, Pasig 74, Taguig 72, Navotas 67, Paranaque 64, Marikina 39, Valenzuala 37, Malabon 23

Pasay continues to surge. QC returning to lead the table. Malabon with a low total yesterday but its numbers lately have been very variable day to day.

Cebu City down somewhat at 139.
Davao City improving more with only 34 cases.


NCR surge

The OCTA group have just updated their report:




Pasay City with an average of 150 per day over the past week. Curiously low positivity though..
Paranaque, Valenzuala and Marikina showing high positivity as are the cities on Cebu and Baguio.



At the Barangay level in the NCR one of them in Pasay adding alone 128 cases a week. In fact 5 Pasay Brgys are in the top 20 and together they contributed just over 30% of Pasay's average daily cases over the last week. Two Paranaque Brgys are also in the top 20 and I know they are adjacent to some of the Pasay Brgys in the top 20 table.
Unsurprisingly OCTA calculate the R value for Pasay at a high 1.83 (national now at 1.47, NCR was at 1.51).
Whether their estimate takes into account the presence of more contagious variants, as suspected by some experts, we don't know.

Understandably a lot of excitement here lately about the arrival of the first vaccines, but here's an analysis from an economist pouring some cold water on that:

https://www.rappler.com/voices/thoug...eds-injections

Bealinehx

Raffin,
Again thank you for your regular and informative updates.
Well the current upward trend in new SARS2 cases reinforces The Presidents decision not to relax quarantine measures. In fact I predict a more harsh regime is just around the corner.
So far as vaccinations are concerned the majority of health workers here in Marikina have rejected the Sinovax as there are no meaningful statistics on its efficacy. I think the supplies of the Sinovax have all been distributed as there was only one noisy convoy leaving the central storage facility just down the road from where I reside. Roll on OAZ vaccine, by far the cheapest!

Raffin

Thanks B.
I'm not sure they can do much more. Yes, clamp down on the Brgy 76s in the NCR and up the testing. But realistically they can't stop movement between NCR cities and recently most restrictions on regional movement have been lifted. Only the mayor of Navotas has complained about that so far, but maybe if more NCR Mayors also object soon there may be some reversal there. There's a Bayanihan 3 Bill ongoing through Congress but its provisions are based on the case situation late last year. It includes a wage subsidy but if things go to business closures from less capacity it will be much less help. And according to the President's spokesman 25% of Bayanihan 2's help has not been distributed.

As the rapid increases in cases continue the possibility of variants being a main cause increases. The summer domestic tourism season is near and tourist areas desperate for business are encouraging travel. Vaccines won't do anything much to stop spread for many months.

The price being paid here for low testing when the curve plateaued late last year. I don't think the DOH and other medical experts here look enough at the international picture. Countries which had some weeks of a flat curve tended later to go up again rather than down.

Raffin

NCR cases yesterday at nearly 1,500 and 3,439 new cases announced nationally. Highest since October 12 last year. Also a high 9 labs did not report However, there was a backlog of nearly 1,200 included. Positivity from 26.4k tests was 8.6%. A higher 33.5k tests on the way. Ideally thousands of extra tests are needed daily with positivity nearing 10% nationally.

Deaths at 42 with 15 RDs.
Case fatality down to 2.11 due to the increase in cases, but the price for that in terms of deaths will be paid in a few weeks time.
Severe and Critical numbers basically unchanged at 780.

Locations for March 6:


MIM 18, other Mindanao 36







NCR at 42.6% and nearby 4A at a higher 13.1. The two regions together making up over 55% of the day's cases. NCR had 13 of its 17 cities in the top 20 urban areas.
Pasay with another high number and Malabon resumes high numbers after a low count the day before.
CAR with 10.6%. Baguio City with 107 cases, nearly 30% of the region's.
Central Luzon with 7.4%. and a much higher number of cases than of late. Bulacan fourth highest province. Adjacent to Manila As with Cavite (see below) many commute from there to Manila daily.
Central Visayas with 12% of the nation's cases. Cebu again dominating the region's cases and Cebu City with 38% of the island's cases. Together with Mandaue and LapuLapu these cities contributed nearly 70% of Cebu cases.

Calabarzon with a doubling of cases and 42% of them from Cavite.


Cavite cases.

The part of Cavite bordering MM is home to many commuters travelling daily into Manila to work. Many of them will travel to or through areas like Pasay, where cases have been surging recently. Similarly for Laguna and Rizal.

Still not coming out with any clear statement on the role of variants in the NCR and other areas the DOH looking to blame people for not following protocols to account for the recent large rises in many cities of the NCR. Certainly if the variants are really spreading among communities rather than just locally then minor protocol lapses would be caught by a much more contagious virus on the loose. But if variants are only locally spreading then the public must be doing much more than that in terms of relaxing their behaviour. Late last year in Paranaque I observed good compliance in general, but it may have slipped back since then. Of course the DOH also has a role in making sure testing is adequate, but they became complacent about it when cases were levelling late last year.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/06/...-just-a-factor

I would much rather rely on what is reported by individual hospitals than judge the picture from the DOH statistics, which nearly always show no problems:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...9-cases/story/

Bealinehx

History repeating itself methinks. One year into quarantine restrictions with all that entails people are getting relaxed and fed up. The hype that accompanied the arrival of Sinovax and now OAZ vaccines seems to be giving false hope that it is all over bar the shouting. It is far from over, as an example the order made by Marikina for OAZ vaccines will not be delivered until the 3rd quarter of this year.
With a young population which we know do not always show SARS2 symptoms and as a result become the source of multiple infections is a worry. Personally I believe that the daily rate of infections is greater than 50,000.
Looking at the accomplished tests per person we see the following, UK 1.38, USA 1.11, France 0.83, Germany 0.53, Philippines 0.081.
Be careful one and all.

Raffin

But the Philippines testing is double that of Indonesia's and Pakistan's, both around 0.04 per person. And we've just overtaken Pakistan in the cases world table:

Some less developed countries have tested a lot more per head, India at 0.16, though they have a lot more cases per head. But there's many who have done less. I think testing and the tracing to go with it is difficult for these countries. Certainly variant testing is likely to be much poorer than many Western countries.

I think the recent increases are too rapid to be caused by deteriorating behaviour, which is likely to change gradually. But yes, away from the well monitored areas people may be letting their guard down, There are still curfews in place but what about mixing of households? The Philippines did not copy other countries like the UK to restrict that. The house we overlook in our corner of Cavite held a debut party a few weeks ago with about 50 guests. They also still have regular drinking sessions with 10 - 20 attending. A lot less than in 2019/early 2020 but still enough to potentially spread virus in a small area. While in the West young people are out drinking and at the beach etc here the young are likely to be mixing in other households. Yes, they seem to be more likely asymptomatic.

Yes, the true number here with covid is almost certainly at least 3 or 4 times the official number due to the low average age and therefore higher asymptomatic percentage, poor testing/tracing and data collection/reporting. I wouldn't go as far as 16 times daily on present data as that would now mean an extra 1.5m a month with most of these in urban areas. With such large numbers carrying the virus most people in those cities will catch it after a few months. But this large under-reporting would also have been going on for a long time in 2020 so there would already have been a huge and obvious amount of illness to be seen

With a late and probably poorly carried out vaccination program, the likely effect of variants plus the under reported infections I expect the outbreak here to be chronic and the President's promise of back to complete normality in 2023 to be seen as over optimistic. Semi normality in 2022, yes.

Bealinehx

Curfew? What curfew! At 2am this morning lots of cars and motorcycles almost like a normal Saturday night/Sunday morning.
Across the road from my Condo complex there is an INC place of worship. Hoards were observed leaving their usual Saturday evening rituals. Social distancing??????
Of course we all know that said organisation has may powerful friends.