NCR llockdown

Old Nov 20th 2020, 8:49 pm
  #511  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

The DOH announced another 1,639 cases yesterday, 63% recent with 8 labs not reporting. The day before11 labs did not report. The number of labs has risen by about 80% over the last 6 months, with a big expansion recently to now 166. My guess is the latest ones are in the regions and are not large. From the beginning the DOH have persisted in only saying the number of labs not reporting, large and small, rather giving a measure of how much testing output might have been lost. Yesterday the 6% positives were out of 17.1k individuals and 22.7k tests were done on November 19.

Top locations were:



Deaths at 27. More detail on death locations coming soon.
Critical at 1,431, down just 2.

Locations for November 19 cases:


Plus other Mindanao 31, Cagayan Valley 13.
NCR and 4A all recent.

For NCR cities:


Plus Malabon 12, Marikina 9.


Calabarzon 5 out of top 7.



An admission. not surprising, that test and trace here works poorly:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...acing-weakness

About 20% traced in urban areas. And how long does that take? England does better but there only just above half of all contacts are now traced.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ippines/story/

Good to see AstraZeneca trialing here.
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Old Nov 20th 2020, 9:26 pm
  #512  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Here in the UK we are also seeing about 6% positives but are testing 500k a day. Read into it what you may.
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Old Nov 21st 2020, 12:32 am
  #513  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Originally Posted by Gazza-d View Post
Here in the UK we are also seeing about 6% positives but are testing 500k a day. Read into it what you may.
The DOH have said the fall off in testing here is in line with the fall in the positivity rate. But it's still above WHO control guidelines and poorer test and trace by local LGUs would justify more testing as the virus spreads to more non urbanized areas.

Even a highly urbanized Provincial area has been caught napping. Looking at the data on the often praised Davao City cases there are now running at about 600 a week.

Positivity at the major hospital testing center there was 22.7% on November 14th down to the latest 13.3% on the 17th.

An extreme example but it is likely to be followed in some other areas, reflecting some DOH complacency here with the fall in cases and vaccines on the horizon.
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Old Nov 21st 2020, 9:14 pm
  #514  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

DOH announced 1,791 cases yesterday. Only 3 labs with no reports and 78% of those tested positive were recent cases. The positivity rate from the 25.4k tested was 5.5%. Tests done two days ago at 27.8k.

Top locations, not including NCR:


Davao City not, but Tarlac a surprise. Maybe just a spike. Recently had two, one earlier this month and in September.

Deaths at 55, including another 13 RDs. announced.
I have now found a DOH resource to track locational changes better for both deaths and cases. Will post separately later.

More detail on the location of yesterday's cases tomorrow.

Locational detail for November 20 cases:


Plus Cagayan 24,MIMAROPA and BARMM 12.

Adjusting for recent cases NCR down to about 220, 4A to 200.





On the 20th 4A provinces all in the top 7.


Davao City well in the lead.


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Old Nov 22nd 2020, 12:16 am
  #515  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

The DOH publish weekly date of death charts for the 6 regions which have had the most cases. By cases per million it could be agued that Caraga should be substituted for Eastern Visayas.. Otherwise their selection is in line with highest cases per head. The seventh chart is for all the other regions
The DOH advise to be wary of recent death data, so we can start at the bars for October 22-28, the fifth from the right. Interactively one is able to get a 4 week average deaths number for each week for each region.
Conveniently the estimated total 2020 population of the six selected regions adds up to about half of the Philippines total population.




Results:

For October 22-28 total deaths in the 6: 155
For Other Regions: 63
Percentage of total deaths in the 6 Epicenters: 71%.

A starting figure to be updated weekly to see if there is any regional spread.
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Old Nov 22nd 2020, 8:03 pm
  #516  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday nearly 2k extra cases, only 65% recent, Tests done were at 23k at 5,5% positive. Testing two days ago at 29.2k.

For top 5 locations:



Latest new cases charts for the nation:



and the NCR:



Both showing steady declines but recently levelling off. Typhoon related? More economic activity?

Deaths at 43
The Philippines case fatality rising to 1.93%, while the world rate falling to 2.4%.

Mass recoveries yesterday 11k.
So active cases 24.2 k. A small reduction from a week ago at 25.7k.
Critical at 1,404, down from 1,429 yesterday.

More location detail for the November 21 cases:


Plus Region 3: Central Luzon 362 (disputed)
BARMM 15, MIMAROPA 9.


Estimates for recent cases: NCR about 250, 4A 230.

For the NCR cities:



For provinces:


Tarlac disputed their high Nov 21 figure with the DOH. No reply yet from the DOH.
Again all 5 4A provinces in the top 10.

No top 20 city chart available.

Last edited by Raffin; Nov 22nd 2020 at 8:10 pm. Reason: Central Luzon figure missing.
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Old Nov 22nd 2020, 8:34 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Similar to the post yesterday on regional deaths here is a similar exercise on the regional spread of cases.
The only difference is that we can start a week later:


Four week moving average of cases by date of start of illness.

Figures from the original DOH charts can be read interactively.

For the week October 29 to November 4 the 6 top regions, accounting for about half the population, had 7,126 cases. The other regions had 3,234 cases. So the top 6 regions had 69% of total cases. From yesterday's post they had 71% of deaths.

To be updated.

Can't report tomorrow but should be able to post again on Wednesday.
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Old Nov 24th 2020, 9:28 pm
  #518  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

New cases from the DOH on November 23 were 1,799 with 7 labs not reporting. Of those only 853 were recent (47%).out of 19.2k tests. Positivity down at 4.4%. Tests for 22nd at 21.1k.

Top 5 locations not including NCR:



Deaths at 50, 16 of which were RDs.
Critical at 1,421.

Locational detail for November 21:
NCR 195,053 514

Plus 25 other Mindanao.
NCR about 330 recent. Region 4A about 260 recent.

For the NCR:





Top 20 cities/municipalities.


Will comment on November 23 and 24 together in my next post on November 24 announcements. Except to say nothing yet from the DOH on the disputed 211 Tarlac cases for November 21. Some of you might remember a similar dispute some months ago between the DOH and QC over the ownership of a much larger number of cases. Nothing more was heard about that.
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Old Nov 24th 2020, 11:57 pm
  #519  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday, November 24, 1,118 new cases announced. Eleven labs did not report. Total cases now over 421k. Cases were only 77% recent and positivity was at 5.3%. Over 16k tests were done.

Top 5 locations, not including NCR:


More detail tomorrow.

Deaths at 12 with 6 RDs.
Critical at 1,418.

More locational detail on November 23 cases:


Other Mindanao 36, Bicol and MIMAROPA both 16.
Estimated about 210 and 200 for NCR and 4A recent cases.

For the NCR:


Paranaque 17, Las Pinas 13









Not my preferred charts as they are not using cases by onset and deaths at date of death, but DOH site down. Because for cases the percentage of recent cases announced (going backwards) were 77,47,65,78,63 %....Not too misleading if cases and deaths only 2 or 3 weeks old, but in the past there have been many cases and deaths months old. Unfortunately now it is very difficult to know if that is still the case.

On the face of it a continuous but gradual decline in cases but deaths, after a gradual fall, may be levelling.
Recovery deaths keep coming and must surely be at 1k at least in total by now, out of the 8,185 to date.

Regional and provincial location:

The epicenters of NCR and 4A continue to dominate.
Prominence of Central Luzon with 453 cases over 2 days. I will look at this shift from the NCR to 4A in more detail soon. For now we can see the province of Cavite top on both days.
In Manila Quezon City top on both 22nd and 23rd Nov, with Davao City 2nd and 3rd.
New entrant on 23rd Rodriguez(Montalban) in Rizal. It has a pop of 370k.



The Philippines dropping down to 27th and could soon be overtaken soon by Pakistan and even Canada:






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Old Nov 25th 2020, 9:03 pm
  #520  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday 1,202 new cases, total now nearly 423k. Recent 83% of cases tested, which were 18.8k, Tests coming along were 26.8k on the 24th. Eight labs did not report.

Top 5 locations were:



More detail tomorrow.

Deaths at 31, including 12 more RDs.
Critical at 1,415, down just 3 on the day before.

More locational details for November 24:

For NCR cities:






Plus Bicol 14, E Visayas 12, Other Mindanao 13 and MIMAROPA 6.

Recent estimate for NCR 200. For 4A about 180.

Unusual to see Quezon Province top.



Quezon province and two of its municipalities featuring in the two tables above.
Looking at Quezon's cases chart...oh dear!




For a change a look at the situation in Manila through this DOH table:



Attack rate is simply the percentage of cases of population.
The figures in the new cases column are puzzling and no explanation given. Maybe some sort of average.

The leaders by number of cases won't surprise anyone reading reports here regularly.
More useful are the attack rates. Forgetting Pateros, which is small and not even a city, we have the leader San Juan, then Pasay, Makati, Navotas, Mandaluyong and Malabon. Then a gap before we get to the rest. Makati at 2.16% may be a surprise to some of you.
QC, Manila and Caloocan often top the daily case counts but have not been infected as much as other areas when their populations are taken into account.

Pasig well in the lead on fatality rate followed by Valenzuala. Also above the national fatality rate of just under 2% are Malabon, Marikina, San Juan, Makati, Manila, Mandaluyong and Caloocan Cities, in descending order.

Pasig City definitely an outlier on fatality given one of the lower infection rates in the NCR. The city and its mayor have been praised for its covid response.. I can only guess that perhaps its medical facilities are a factor.

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Old Nov 26th 2020, 9:47 pm
  #521  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday 1,392 new cases announced with 9 labs not reporting.
From time to time the DOH changes something without explanation.


Previously the number tested/positive was dated the same day as the announcement, but here it is dated November 25. They started doing that yesterday.. Then I thought it must have been a mistake, but they have now done it again.. If the 1,367 positive cases are from the 1,392 announced, that would mean a 98% recent report, which is much higher than they have ever been reporting. Will just see how this goes on.
Tests done 2 days ago at 26.8k.

Top 5 locations:


More detail tomorrow.

Deaths at 27, 9 of which were RDs.
Critical at 1,411, down 4 on yesterday.

More location detail on November 25 cases:


Plus Bicol 17, Illocos 8 and BARMM 7.
Note: won't continue with estimating recent cases for NCR and 4A as information now doubtful.

For Manila:





Large haul from Davao. Nearly 250 from Region 4A. One fifth of the nation's cases.




This WHO table looks at the change in new cases over the week Nov 15-22 compared to the previous week. The Philippines belongs to the Western Pacific group. You would have thought to S E Asia! To which Indonesia belongs.
Anyway our region showing a moderately high increase of 9%.


The next table shows in the W Pacific region Japan had more new cases than the Philippines last week, though we have had about half of all cases in our region and the most officially recorded deaths.
But if we added Indonesia we would see over16k new cases in that week, and as you can see below that country has seen a substantial increase over the previous week:



Always remembering that Indonesia has 2.5 times the population but only 20% more recorded cases.
Its currently recorded deaths though are nearly double those of the Philippines.

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Old Nov 27th 2020, 8:32 pm
  #522  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

DOH announced another 1,631 cases yesterday. Labs not reporting 10 Tests were 23.7k and there were 1,484 positives at November 26. Some doubt but that may mean that 63% were recent cases. Tests coming along 30.4k.


More details tomorrow.

Deaths were 46 with 13 of them RDs.
To make a change 33 deaths were miss-classified and they should have been 8 recoveries and 25 still active cases!
Critical at 1,412.

More on the locations of November 26 cases:


Plus Illocos 25, Zamboanga 23, Other Mindanao 33, Bicol 17.

For NCR cities:
The top 7 were:
Caloocan 77,Manila 44, QC 36,Makati 32, Pasig 30, Valenzuala 14, Taguig 12
Couldn't get the other cities' numbers today.



Region 4A has 4 out of the top 6.


Mankayan a mining area.
Caloocan City 77 cases yesterday and 63 today, although up to this week their new cases have been falling consistently since September. A spike or a resurgence for this city with 1.5m pop?

Laoag City in Illocos Norte (pop about 120k) has been put into MECQ from GC



Regional spread:

For the top 6 regions (NCR, 4A, C Vis, C Luzon, W Vis, Davao) the percentage of cases fell slightly from 71.8% (figure revised upwards from Nov 23 post) to 71.4% from the weeks beginning October 29 to October 5.
Deaths were 71.6% w/c October 22 and 75.6% w/c Oct 29. Up substantially.
To be updated.




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Old Nov 27th 2020, 10:57 pm
  #523  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

More examples of a silly mentality here to try to reduce the risk of virus transmission from extremely low levels to zero. Echoes of the motorbike divider.

The form filling and app filling required by many very spacious retail establishments. At one large DIY we gave up waiting as the screen you filled up was so small.

Expressways have introduced Autosweep RFID .If like me and many others you just want to use those roads occasionally so you will take some other route and they will become more congested.

Then I saw a report that you might need an app on your Smartphone to enter government offices! They will clarify later if hospitals included!

!https://www.rappler.com/nation/loggi...rnment-offices
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Old Nov 28th 2020, 12:26 am
  #524  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

My solution to completing contact tracing data on forms is quite simple. I have printed small slips of paper with all the relevant information and use a mini stapler to attach same to the required form. Contamination free and quick.
I have to visit BI in Taytay next week so that should be fun crossing from MM into Rizal.
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Old Nov 28th 2020, 1:09 am
  #525  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Originally Posted by Bealinehx View Post
My solution to completing contact tracing data on forms is quite simple. I have printed small slips of paper with all the relevant information and use a mini stapler to attach same to the required form. Contamination free and quick.
I have to visit BI in Taytay next week so that should be fun crossing from MM into Rizal.
B. good idea with those forms.

Do you expect a problem crossing into Rizal? MM to Cavite and vv has been free for some weeks.
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