NCR llockdown

Old Jan 10th 2021, 10:27 pm
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Yesterday 1,906 new cases, 5 labs not reporting. Positives 1,115 out of 18k tested. So a backlog of nearly 800 went through. Positivity at 6.4% Tests in preparation at a higher 33.6k.
Top locations:


Deaths 8.
Critical unchanged at 1,366.

Another mass recovery day with 8.6k,
Active 20.087, down 213 on a week ago.

Detail on January 9 cases:


Plus other Mindanao 35






Top 14 cities:



Top 7 regions were all in 3 figures, accounting for more than 77% of cases.
Ten of the 17 NCR cities were in the top 20

The last week:

Cases at 8,876, up from 7,917 the previous week.
Deaths at 140, down from 189
Reproduction estimate: 0.95 from Jan 5.

The last two weeks greatly affected by low and erratic testing.

The Philippines looking better internationally due to the surging European case numbers.
But more locally the country has 4,420 cases per million. Indonesia with over 70% more cases is at 3,011. Japan at 2,163.
On deaths the Philippines at 85, Indonesia 88 and Japan 32.

Some interesting charts from Public Health England were recently on the BBC news site:



This one showing how age groups have been affected in the UK lately in that they were admitted to hospital. All age groups affected about equally, though above 44's a little more recently..

Comparing with the Philippines since the pandemic here began 62% of cases have been in the 15-44 age bracket, 45-74 at 27.5%. Under 14 less than 1%. 75 and over at less than 10%. Our hospital cases are likely dominated by much younger patients but our case fatality rate is the same as Sweden's. at 1.93%. The UK is at 2.7%. World average around 2,2%.


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Old Jan 11th 2021, 9:47 pm
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A ratcheting up announced yesterday to 2,052 cases with most of them a backlog. Highest since Dec 18. Three labs not submitting, but how many still closed or not operating fully? There were 18.7k tests done at a positivity of 4.6%. Tests on the way down to 21.5k.
Latest R value 1.07.

Top 5:


Davao City continues to surge. But the media scared to talk about it because of who is in charge.



Deaths at 11
Critical 1,371, up 5.

Detail from January 10:


Plus other Mindanao 70.


Paranaque high.






NCR with 26% of cases, 11 of its cities in top 20.
Benguet top province, the only one over 100. Xmas and maybe some effect of cooler weather there? Temperatures in Baguio going down to 10 -12C at night and affected by wind chill may increase indoor gathering.

Cebu province showing an increase since late December after a long and steady decline:



A good set of graphics from the BBC on the world situation:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105
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Old Jan 12th 2021, 4:34 pm
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Yesterday 1,524 cases with 6 labs not reporting. Positive rate from only 19.1k tests a higher 6.9. Backlog of over 200. Tests in process only 21.5k.
Top 5 locations:


QC and DC top 2 yesterday and the day before.
Cebu City first time appearance.

Deaths at a very high 139, But nobody online is remarking that of those 78 were RDs. which could have occurred months ago. Taking them out still leaves a high 61, probably delayed reports from the Xmas period.

Critical down 30 at 1,341.

More detail on Jan 11 cases:


Plus other Mindanao 53.







NCR nearly a quarter of cases. Eleven NCR cities in top 20.

Overall it looks like the talked about Xmas holiday increase is now showing. Regions away from NCR and Calabarzon also involved, in the North, the Visayas and Mindanao.
Latest Reproduction number at 1.22 nationally. Interestingly a bit less at 1.11 for the NCR. Positivity has been generally on the rise.

In the NCR Makati is showing the most increase in new cases per head of pop.
Marikina also showing an alarming increase in new cases and positivity at 11%.

Benguet, Leyte and Davao del Norte positivity over 10%.
Pampanga, Cebu and Zamboanga lower positivity but rising cases at very concerning rates.
Hospital occupancy figures are of greatest concern in Davao del Norte (70%) and Sur, but also in Benguet and Rizal to a lesser extent.
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Old Jan 12th 2021, 6:32 pm
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I've been watching this guy regularly, mainly UK based but also a good world perspective.
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Old Jan 12th 2021, 10:44 pm
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Gazza, I get playback error. Can you give his name? Presumably its his latest?
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Old Jan 13th 2021, 1:12 am
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Just press the subscribe button by pointing at the picture top left of the video.
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Old Jan 13th 2021, 2:04 am
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Thanks B. He's very informative, especially about Ireland. You following his handwashing technique?
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Old Jan 13th 2021, 3:50 am
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I haven't had the chance to watch. Memsahib was on night duty at the hospital so I've been busy cooking lunch et cetera.
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Old Jan 13th 2021, 5:00 am
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Gazza, thank you for providing the You Tube link. The information almost as good as Raffin's daily output LOL.
I was particularly interested in the comments about immunity as I contracted C-19 last August.
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Old Jan 13th 2021, 12:26 pm
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Today 1,453 new cases, 4 labs not reporting. There were 27.6k individuals tested and a positivity of 5.5%. Tests in process 25.2k. With numbers expected to rise it would be useful to see more testing, but the wide spread of cases nationally makes that difficult.



Deaths at 146. Like yesterday a high number due to late reporting. Some of it very late. From November and earlier 93 deaths. RDs announced were 44, they were almost certainly part of the 93.

Details from January 12:


Plus Bicol 19, other Mindanao 19


Marikina has fallen last few days, now only 8 cases.






Nearly 26% of cases from NCR with 9 out of 17 cities in top 20.
Note: Cebu City in 4th place of top cities and Cebu province in 3rd place in top provinces.
CAR in 4th position of regions and Baguio City 5th in cities.

The Philippines buying 25m doses of the Chinese Sinovac vaccine, first batch arriving next month.
Brazil testing reduced its effectiveness from 78% mild/severe down to 50,4%, but only when some data relating to very mild/no symptoms cases was mistakenly not included.
Its effectiveness with moderate to severe cases at 100%. The general or czar in charge says it is "quite cheap". But Filipinos are not convinced, especially when they get the impression that they will have no choice but to accept the Chinese vaccine rather than US or European ones. In their minds they will think of all the cheap Chinese products on sale here and see their vaccines as more of the same. Plus the idea that Chinese firms are known for bribery.

On China again the Philippines has now banned foreign arrivals from China because of the "UK" variant....for only two days! Having had the information on the UK variant case there since January 1. Thirty three countries arrivals now banned due to the variant. Policy to be reviewed on January 15


Philippines now in 32nd place.
Portugal has overtaken and is having a surge...adding 5 to 7k cases in each of the last 3 days.
Switzerland may well follow in a few days time.
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Old Jan 14th 2021, 7:56 pm
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Here we go again.And there was me thinking a brazilian was something only the wife/gf had to worry about.

https://www.google.co.uk/url?q=https...v2eMQgj03U-930

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Old Jan 14th 2021, 10:49 pm
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Yesterday 1,912 new cases bringing the 7 day average to 1,750 a day. Seven labs not operating. Positivity from 23k tests was at 5.8% Tests in progress 31.8k.

Locations:


Two Mindanao entries. Dagupan City for the first time.
Davao surge continuing.

Deaths at 40 with 14 of them RDs.
Case fatality rate up to 1.97%.
1,332 critical, drop of 9 from 2 days ago.


Other Mindanao 63








NCR 23% of cases, 10 in top 20.
Cebu top province and the city 4th,


Cebu City uptick.

Covid variant news: Philippines genome work has found one in QC. So two people here have almost certainly had it, although they are always saying the first case could have caught it in HK.
We await Phil reaction on the Brazilian variant and what they will do on all the travel bans due to the "UK" variant, which expire today. UAE likely to be added soon as a Pinoy who travelled there had the UK variant.
The UK banning arrivals from the whole of S America plus Portugal seems quite extreme, but then the UK situation is very bad. Also Portugal having a surge of its own. If other countries join in international travel from an entire continent will be greatly affected. All those footballers who travel back and forth from Europe, for instance!

On vaccines here the President's spokesman now hinting he might take a vaccine early. The earliest vaccine would be Chinese, Criticism of the efficacy and commercial terms of the Chinese Sinovac deal have got to him as he said this:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/14/...m-china-russia

His world views, favoring autocratic regimes, anti US, Europe etc clearly showing. Well known before, though in this case they will affect the health of people here. Help from Russia and China based on friendship?


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Old Jan 15th 2021, 2:05 am
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The latest update from Dr John thoroughly explaining the results of the SIREN UK study on immunity for those with a previous covid infection. It suggests a likely low chance of reinfection and a very low chance of a severe re-infection. Encouraging too for the one shot vaccine policy. Not peer reviewed yet though. Tried to find out if he is a medical doctor or if he has a doctorate, probably in Nursing Studies, but can't.


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Old Jan 15th 2021, 3:35 am
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Heisa retired nurse teacher with a PhD. He has taught internationally and expertise is A & E
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Old Jan 15th 2021, 5:31 pm
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Yesterday over 2k cases announced, just one lab not reporting. Tests 29k and a positivity of 5.1%. Higher tests at 32.4k on the way.
Top locations:


Significant only one NCR city in top 5.

Deaths 137, with 63 RDs. Obviously the continual miss classification of deaths cannot be fixed. Been going on now for over 6 months.
Case fatality rate up at 1.99%.
Critical 1,325, down 7.

Detail on January 14:


Other Mindanao 60








NCR 24% of cases, QC nearly a quarter of NCR cases. Eleven NCR cities in top 20.
Davao cases continue to surge.

The DOH under secretary has hinted, without proof, that poor compliance in Davao City has been the main cause. Of course she cannot criticize the city mayor!!
It is a low density city covering a large area and maybe that has affected the ability of the authorities to maintain protocols somewhat ? Medical facilities there now classed as being "at moderate risk".

The Phil UK variant travel bans have been extended to the end of the month on the 32 countries. USA and 14 European countries. Even to China, though reluctantly. UAE and Hungary now added. As the reports of the variant are bound to increase over time are we looking at the prospect of the country accepting no foreigners from first world countries at all in a few months time? With the effect on tourism, airlines and the economy. Is the plan to relax the bans after vaccinations in those countries become widespread and people have certificates? That could be a long time in the future. Pressure will soon mount on the government to find a way out of this.

Cases are on the rise and more of them are provincial, where some high positivity rates are now showing, The NCR percentage daily is mostly in the lower part of the 20-30% range. Whereas a few months ago it was usually in the upper part or even over 30%. The government may not be so worried about that as it can bring in more restrictions in Provincial areas without harming the economy so much. That's as long as the increases are moderate in the epicenter. I would guess to 2-3k a day level.

However, if cases start to increase to much higher levels restrictions will have to be re-imposed in the NCR and surrounding regions. The type of lockdown that was imposed earlier last year will be avoided as much as possible, so bringing back non work etc movement restrictions seems to be more likely.

Unfortunately deaths and serious illness will rise at a faster rate due to the poorer medical facilities away from NCR and surrounding areas and the worst aspect of the Phil pandemic will get even worse.



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