Raffin

Every so often the DOH springs a surprise. The daily 4pm data is now coming out (although I couldn't find the original source this morning!) in the form of the above colourful infographic in the local language. It now does not give some useful regional detail on cases and deaths, number of labs not submitting, "recovery deaths". Although these last two items were reported by ABS-CBN and GMA somehow. For more information you are asked to go to the DOH website. They used to put out much more detailed information overnight but the site has been down since Sunday. We await to see what it will now show.

Yes, local people can view this on their phones but what they will view is often misleading. People at ABS-CBN and GMA can provide a better interpretation, but only if they can see the details.

A "helpful detail" is reported here|

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ovinces/story/

Despite hopeful statements the PRC/Philhealth dispute has not been resolved, no money paid yesterday. The President now has to OK it. Looks to me that will not be soon...if ever. Politicians saying the whole deal was illegal in the first place. That's the typical development here. An issue comes up and then it is said the entity or deal was illegally set up in the first place. As the article says cases in the Manila area recently have been under-recorded. I thought it would only be by a few percent as the DOH said they were making other arrangements but the experts at Octa reckon it is a much greater loss. Track and trace badly affected in the NCR making reproduction estimates more unreliable.

All I can report now is:

Yesterday 1,607 total cases from 16 labs not reporting. Recent 95%, Latest test numbers at a very low 16k...likely affected both by typhoon Quinta and the PRC dispute.
Most cases were from Davao (90), then Cavite, Rizal, Negros and Quezon Province. The numbers are shown in the infographic. Numbers from Manila and 4A lower due to the weather. The numbers from other areas also in the Visayas and Bicol must have also been affected downwards.

Deaths total 62, with 19 "recovery deaths". So likely about 43 recent deaths yesterday.

A few more on the critical list....1,490.

Raffin

Again only a brief report on todays figures as the DOH website still down and all we get is the not very informative DOH infographic. But below I can now give more information on the day before yesterdays announcements.

Yesterday an extra 1,523 cases announced, a very high percentage (97) recent. 15 labs did not submit. Latest test number up at 20k.
Because of Quinta and the PRC/Philhealth dispute, where promises are now being made about future test resumption following some payment, we should assume these figures, especially those in Manila and Region 4A are showing numbers much lower than they should be.

The GCQ in Manila was extended to Nov 30. Obviously the figures, especially from the past 2 weeks, were not very useful. So they just said carry on with GCQ. Adjustments are likely to be made anyway for the NCR area and in the cities individually , which will likely end up make these quarantine definitions redundant.

Deaths 14 with 1,500 on critical list.

More detail on yesterday's announcement:

Out of the 1,607 total cases NCR 396, 4A 347, W Visayas 222, Central Luzon 153, Davao 106 with the rest of Mindanao giving nearly 200 more.
Yesterday 95% of cases were recent ,which if applied to the NCR and 4A numbers gives NCR 376 and 4A 330 estimated recent cases. Probably should be less, given the tendency of these areas to late report, but a good enough estimate for now.



The octa research group has published a new list of places where the growth of infecttions and hospital utilisation is of great concern:

1. Pasay City
2. Makati City
3. Pasig City
4. Mandaluyong City
5. Baguio City
6. Itogon, Benguet
7. Calamba, Laguna
8. Angono, Rizal
9. Cainta, Rizal
10. Tatay, Rizal
11. Lucena, Quezon
12. Lagan, Isabela
13. Batangas City, Batangas
14. General Trias, Cavite
15. Iloilo City
16. San Carlos City, Negros Occidental
17. Davao City, Davao Del Sur
18. Butuan City, Agusan Del Norte

Last, this would be almost funny if about some other issue in government:

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...z?ocid=BingHPC

A reason for the delay is given, but I am wondering if it is really because when the unnamed Czar meets the President and he doesn't like the person then he can change the appointment without the public knowing? You would think getting a vaccine is an urgent matter!

Raffin

Yesterday the DOH announced just over 2k extra cases nationwide with 1,673 recent. Only 82% recent. They have stopped giving all the details on late reporting, but I suspect the high number is this is because of the disruption caused to testing in the NCR and Region 4A by the PRC/Philhealth dispute. Latest individual tests reported are up to 29.5K so it looks like PRC testing is getting back to normal.
Here are the latest charts showing NCR and Region 4A trends (look at the bars for recent cases). Latest data bars much too low given the lower testing due to the PRC dispute and Quinta:


NCR




Region 4A



Deaths at 61 nationally, with 17 of them being the mysterious late reported "recovery deaths".
The Philippines surpassing another European country, Portugal.




Now critical down to 1,480.

This graphic from John Hopkins for selected countries shows case fatality rates either declining or level, but notice the gentle rise for The Philippines:



Last, regional total case figures from October 27. (Due to recent changes in DOH data output these details now come out later).

NCR 358, 4A 268, W Visayas 237 (mostly from Negros Occ), CAR (Cordillera Admin Region....Benguet) 110, Davao 93, Central Luzon 87 and just over 200 more from Mindanao.

Making a rough adjustment to get recent cases there were about 347 from the NCR and 260 from Region 4A announced on October 27.

Raffin

Yesterday 1,761 more cases nationally with 92% recent. Labs not reporting 9. DOH website down again so can't check the latest testing numbers.
So nationally another 1,613 recent cases added.
GMA news say that there were 431 cases from the NCR and 322 from 4A.
Should be ale to report the other numbers tomorrow.

The DOH only give cases by top 5 province or city on their new slimmed down infographic. As the NCR is not a province or city it doesn't feature. But its constituent cities often do. So yesterday QC and Caloocan City featured. But the NCR is treated as a province with all its cities getting the same quarantine classification. So the daily numbers for Manila have been made difficult to get and unless given out at a news conference or in another way to a journalist ( as yesterday to only GMA) only emerge a day later through research of DOH data.

Deaths were 33 nationally. Again, only according to GMA, 3 were from September, 3 August and 1 July.
So 26 were recent.
Critical patients just two fewer than the day before at 1,478.

The regional case numbers for October 28 included:

NCR 559, 4A 331, W Visayas 199, Central Luzon 178, CAR (mostly Benguet) 130, N Mindanao 100, Davao 91......the rest of Mindanao over 150 and the rest of the Visayas 155.

"The Philippines now out of the top 20 international case table". This was the headline in a news item on GMA TV.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...9-cases/story/

They say the John Hopkins number for Ukraine is 381,664 but the latest figure there is only 374,023. And they don't have a world table!

See at : https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/

The figures below come from Worldmeter's table. They are generally seen as a good data source on covid. For the Ukraine their figure is are even lower.
Possibly John Hopkins are adding cases for a region of the country occupied by Russian separatists?
Data differences, an error or someone wants to make things here look better than they are?

Although it does look that both Ukraine, Turkey and Belgium may all overtake us soon given their recent case numbers, as long as ours do not start to accelerate.



For the whole table:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Raffin

New cases announced yesterday breached 2k, but recent cases were only 1,442. So late reported cases were a high 28% of the total. Also 13 labs did not report. Latest testing number 28.6k. Fuller report tomorrow.

Deaths were 38 nationwide with 23 of them "recovery deaths" going back to May ! GMA reports that the majority of deaths were from the NCR and W Visayas.
Slightly more were critical at 1,486 patients.

The regional picture of total newly announced cases on October 29:

NCR 495, 4A 335, Central Luzon 182, W Visayas 140, E Visayas 131, Davao 101. The rest of MIndanao a little less than 200.

A rough estimate of recent cases for NCR 455 and 4A 308.

The picture by city/municipality:




The latest international table showing the large daily case increases by the Ukraine and Belgium:



Survey results about opinions on DOH data. The majority do not believe it. Despite that they still give the government high marks for its handling of the pandemic here!
More see cases as over than under reported, while an equal percentage feel deaths are under/over reported.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...y-right/story/

Gazza-d

With the constant dribble of recovery deaths how can we believe any of these figures.

Bealinehx

We can't, as the trends in daily cases shows an inconsistent pattern. If you take the reporting from say India and Russia there is a very clear trend in the data.

Raffin

Philippines case data is certainly very variable from day to day:


Compare with Russia:


...and to India, to a lesser extent:


....... neighbouring Indonesia shows an amount of variability but Philippines still more variable:


Russia has a legacy from the Communist era of a national health service so has probably kept the bureaucracy from that intact, even though much healthcare has gone private.
India has, like the Philippines, a health service for the poor and private healthcare for the better off. But maybe it also has a legacy of good bureaucracy at the state level left from the British era? Indonesia also has a mixed public/private health system but still case reporting there looks more consistent than here.. All I can think of is that the Philippines mixed legacies of Spanish and American colonization has left it with a poor system of government with a chaotic element and one of the features is poor statistics.

Still, you can see trends in Philippine data using moving averages. A seven day average smooths out the clear weekly seasonality. Using that on the latest NCR data shows a clear downward trend, although probably exaggerated in October by the Red Cross dispute, the weather and a general decline in testing since mid September.


NCR daily recent cases. Trend is for total cases. Better if the DOH showed the trend for recent cases instead.

In fact, one of the reasons for the high daily variability in NCR daily data is the habit of cities here to find old cases from months ago!

Yes, Gazza, the recovery deaths getting close to 1k by now is a really serious issue and it does make you doubt all other DOH statistics even more on top of all the other doubts we have about them. A few months back one lawmaker here called for an enquiry into DOH statistics but that got nowhere in the Senate given the pandemic and the focus on Philhealth corruption. The media and press here can't ask too many questions at virtual DOH conferences. They're a bit supine now anyway. So the DOH can get away with "dribbling" these recovery deaths out at the end of a list of "data cleaning" or "data validation" announcements.

All you can hope here is that someone is regularly looking at the DOH data and making some sensible adjustments to it before it goes before busy politicians and generals. But judging from some of their public statements I am not confident that always happens.

Raffin

On the last day of October 1,803 new infections reported....but only 82% or 1,479 were recent. Recently many old cases being found.
Twelve labs didn't report and the latest testing level stable at 28k individuals.
Will give more details tomorrow.

There were 36 deaths and no change in the number reported critical from the day before.

The regional total cases breakdown for October 30:

NCR 549, 4A 438, W Visayas 177, Central Luzon 158, CAR 98....Mindanao 319 in total. E Visayas 74, Central Visayas 56, Bicol 66.
In the NCR QC, Manila, Makati and Pasig were the top 4 cities,
In 4A Batangas and Cavite were the top two provinces.

Adjusting NCR figures for recent cases gives 395. Recent cases for 4A estimated at 315.

Raffin

Yesterday well over two thousand cases announced, but only 1,548 were recent. That's a very low 65%. Fifteen labs did not report.
Latest testing a bit down at 26.1k.
No explanation as to why so many cases were late reported. I can only guess it might be a hangover from the testing disruption 2 weeks ago in Manila.
Davao and Quezon Cities top two new cases. Fuller details tomorrow.

There were 17 deaths.
As it was a Sunday there were a large number of recoveries...17.7k.

As a result total Active cases were an improvement at 27,115. A week ago they were at 35k.

Just over 5% (1,464) of Active cases were in a critical condition Twenty two less than yesterday.

More details on Saturday's cases:



Adjusting for late reports NCR estimated at about 393, 4A at 271.

Looking at Provinces:


For the NCR:

Raffin

Reported yesterday, November 2, another 2,298 cases...but only 1,057 (46%) were recent. The percentage of recent cases is normally around 80 to 90% with a backlog going back months but this large additional backlog must come from cases older than 2 weeks from last month, due to the disruption in testing in and around Manila at that time.
Latest testing effort at 20.6k and 14 labs not reporting. There were only 17.5k results announced yesterday.
Hotspots were Benguet (mining areas) and Davao City.
Fuller report tomorrow.

Deaths 32, with 13 more "recovery deaths"!
Number critical unchanged.

The situation on November 1:


Plus another 137 from the rest of Mindanao.

For the NCR:



A rough estimate for cases from the last 14 days in the NCR is 276 and for 4A 202. Much lower due to a large number of delayed results from October.

Below see two line graphs for the NCR and 4A of only recent cases for the month of October. Smoothed by applying a 7 day moving average. Results for the second half of October were definitely lower due to the disruption to testing at that time, Still they both show steady falls....especially for the NCR. However, the DOH classes the NCR as Medium Risk and in Region 4A Batangas and Rizal are areas where downward trends are not yet firmly established.





The growth in cases is in areas away from the NCR and its surrounding area. Two charts showing the rise in cases in Pampanga and Davao City:


Pampanga


Davao City

Poland suffers a surge in new cases and pushes the Philippines down to 23rd place:

Raffin

Yesterday 1,772 new cases reported, but only 1,016 recent (57%). They were from only 14k samples. Better than yesterday but still a backlog being processed from mid October. Also more labs, 18, not reporting. The latest testing shows only 15.1k individuals , so no improvement in sight.
Pampanga showing the largest number of Provincial positives. More detail tomorrow.

There were 49 deaths and 13 of these were "recovery deaths".

Critical list: 1,482. A few more than the day before.

The details from November 2:
Due to backlog only about 290 of NCR cases are recent ie started in last 14 days.







Due to backlog only about 200 of Calabarzon cases are recent.

Outbreak in Benguet at mining sites.
Pampanga and Bulacan make up about half the population of Central Luzon. Which has nearly the same population as the NCR. So it is good to see that the recent trend in Pampanga is not going up and Bulacan's is falling:


Pampanga


Bulacan

Case surges in European countries resulting in the Philippines moving down the table. Seems likely that the Netherlands and Czech Republic will overtake us soon.

Raffin

A very low result count yesterday at only 987 positives. But this was out of only 16.2k tests conducted. And the latest testing effort is reported at only 17.4k individuals. Reflected by 12 labs not reporting. The DOH said in its brief report the low testing was due to Rolly and to expect an increase in positive results over the next few days.
Davao City top outside NCR. More details tomorrow.

Until the effects of testing problems work their way through, and assuming no more typhoons in large population areas, we cannot say much about where the epidemic is going here.

Deaths nationally at 49. Recovery deaths again....and again .at 13.
Critical at 1,489, just 7 more than the day before.

More details from November 3:


Top 8 Regions

Plus another 176 cases from Mindanao.


Top 9 Manila cities




The majority outside the NCR.

Raffin

For November 5 over 1.5k recent new cases reported. They made up 82% of those tested. So 18% were a backlog, which is nearly back to normal. Ten labs did not report. The latest total for daily individual tests was only 17.4k.
The City of Manila contributed a high 253 cases. More details tomorrow.


Fall off in testing since September.

Deaths at 42. Recovery deaths another 14!
Critical list down to 1,442.

The regional figures for November 4. Numbers reduced due to the disruption of testing caused by Typhoon Rolly:








Davao City has been the top city on a number of days recently.

Raffin

Need a covid test for some reason other than you have been identified by a health team from the LGU or have been admitted to hospital with symptoms? It may not be easy judging from our recent experience in Paranaque. We want to move back to a subdivision in Cavite and they require recent negative PCR tests. Our Barangay referred us to the local government hospital doing free tests for a number of barangays in the area. They gave us two cell numbers to phone to arrange appointments. Gave up with them after a day as they were always engaged.

A number of hospitals and clinics locally not offering tests but eventually found a local hospital charging P3,500 each. Two fairly long online forms to fill in for each test and email back. Payment to be made through an "alternative payment channel", which listed more agents than were actually operating when you enquired. They promise emailed certificates in 3 days. So we have to print them out to show. Have seen what they look like as they ask you to put your names on a blank one of them.. The hospital name etc in colour but obviously no security features and it occurs to me they could be tampered with on a computer to change a result or even used without having had a test at all, and so may be questioned. Though hopefully anyone suspicious can make a phone call to confirm authenticity. We will only find out how ours are viewed when we show them to subdivision staff. Seems that many of their tests are emailed back to doctors and hospitals and so would be accepted without question. But for people in a similar situation to ours it might be more questionable.

Anyway, some computer skills and familiarity required, which many people will not have themselves, at least.
Also, the advertising leaflet for these tests also states you need to be referred by a doctor. You only find out they will do them without that if you phone up.