Bealinehx

To add to the dream. Are there any where near adequate freezer facilities to handle Pfizer and Moderna vaccines? The bravado beggars belief.

Raffin

New cases announced yesterday fell to below 1,000 at 984. Held over were 21 cases. Three labs late, 2 non operational. Positivity again at 2.8%. Numbers of people tested 35.9k. Only 22.8k in preparation.

Recoveries 2.2k

Deaths 218 including 169 RDs

Active 19,798

Severe 2,633, down 10, Critical 1,109, down 52
A downward trend seems to be established.

NCR ICU 31%, unchanged. National 32%, up 1%

Regional data:

NCR 168
Cag 142
4A 106
IL 90
CL 69
CV 68

All regions with fewer cases.

The NCR with over 250 less and only 17.0% of all cases.
Cagayan with almost 70 less. 4A with about 250 less, giving the top 3 regions 42.3% of all cases, down.

The top 6 regions with 65.3% of all cases, also down.

Covid deaths:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops..._picks&order=4

Of course, given the slow roll out!

More on deaths from the normally quiet Health Secretary:

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...G?ocid=BingHPC

An attempt to distract from the poor deaths record here using a selection of the highest case number countries, who have not distinguished themselves in the war against covid-19. With older populations..... the European populations much older.
Then the greater under reporting here, at least compared with the European countries. The high numbers of cases daily revised from recovered to died, something not seen in the European countries cited.

I can't find any specific report so I assume this media release was just cherry picked from a very detailed deaths report from "Our world in data":

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths

Look through, click on the maps and you will see the Philippines has not got a good record, especially as of late.

The latest Alert level changes:

Raffin

More than 150 cases added over the day before at 1,153. The backlog included was about half, at 565. Eight labs late, 2 remain non operational. No information from the DOH on their significance. Positivity 2.3% on 25.6k tests. A higher 29.7k test results on the way.

Recoveries 2.2k

Deaths 195, 170 RDs.

Active 18,721

Severe 2,584, down 49. Critical 1,086, down 23
Falls continue.

NCR ICU 31%. National 32%,
Both unchanged.

Regional data:

NCR 314
4A 128
IL 114
CL 102
WV 89
Cag 84

Eleven regions with more cases, 6 with less.

The NCR with about 150 more cases at a higher 27.2% of all cases.
There were modest increases in regions 4A and IL resulting in these top 3 regions having 48.2% of cases, up.

In the top 6 the CL and WV regions also had modest increases, while Cagayan reported 58 less than the day before.
The top 6 regions with 72.1% of all cases, also up.

As if LGUs haven't got enough to do.
Picnic at the vaccination centre!

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...u?ocid=BingHPC

Also a good way to spread covid.

Raffin

Yesterday only 890 new cases from lower Monday testing. Backlog included 84. Three labs late to submit. Positivity 2.5% of 32,254 tests. Test results to come 32.3k.

Recoveries 1.7k

Deaths 200 including 179 RDs

Active 17,864

Severe 2,572, down 12. Critical 1,072, down 14

NCR ICU 29%, down 2%. National 31%, down 1%

Regional data:

4A 248
NCR 234
WV 61
Cag 59
CL 46
IL 32
MIM 32

Region 4A had 120 more cases and led at 27.9% of all cases.
The NCR had 80 less and 26.3% of cases.
The top 3 regions at 61%, up.
Top 6 had 76%, up.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...ovinces/story/

You would think there aren't many experienced vaccinators around to be hired and the President's 3 day vaccination festival not far off. Two weeks ago there was someone in Zamboanga who was given two vaccinations at one visit to a centre. Risk of more issues with the large numbers, target pressure and inexperienced staff.

Japan:


Dramatic change in Japan. S Korea showing a steady, moderate rise after having covid under control for so long.


Deaths

Dr J Campbell discusses Japan's recent covid experience in his latest video. The contributions of Ivermectin, virus mutations and genetic differences.

Raffin

Yesterday the DOH announced 85 more cases at 975 but 116 positives were held over. Three labs late to submit. Positivity 2.8% from 39k tests. About the same number under preparation.

Recoveries 1k

Deaths 193, 181 of them RDs.
The number of these ridiculous recoveries re-designated as deaths seems to be increasing. You would think that this data issue would have been dealt with by now, but it seems to be getting worse.
By the way, when the ABS-CBN and GMA report on these RDs they often say "at least"!

Active 17,796

Severe 2,563, down 9 and Critical 1,068, down 4

NCR ICU 29%, unchanged. National 30%, down 1%

Regional data:

NCR 187
4A 164
CV 93
WV 69
Zam 68
Bic 55

Most regions had a few more cases but the NCR reported nearly 50 less and a lower 19.2% of all cases.
Region 4A had 84 less and CV 64 more.
These top 3 regions with 45.5% of all cases, down.

Zamboanga had 38 more and the top 6 regions had 65.2% of cases, also down.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...story/?just_in

Last minute recruitment of staff to help vaccinators over the 3 day push is Ok, but concerning for vaccinators themselves.

The DOH being rightly cautious about declaring the outbreak here under control:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/25/...d-covid-spread

Gazza-d

Here we go again. The UK has just added 6 African countries to their red list due a new variant.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-covid-variant

Raffin

Good for us the Hong Kong case only a traveller.

Raffin

About 100 less cases yesterday at 863, but 112 were held over (they say "over" here, we would say "back"). Two labs late.
Positivity 2.5% from 39k tests. About 37k results on the way.

Recoveries 0.8k

Deaths 142, 128 RDs

Active 17,853

Severe 2,535, down 28. Critical 1,089, up 21

NCR ICU 29%, unchanged. National 29%, down 1%

Regional data:

NCR 183
Cag 99
4A 87
CV 69
CL 68
WV 54

Only 4 regions with more cases, the rest down.

The NCR with just 4 less at 21.2% of all cases.
Cagayan added 50 but region 4A had 77 less than the day before.
These top 3 regions had 42.8% of all cases, down.

The top 6 regions with 64.9% of all cases, also down.



As usual interesting stuff from Dr J in his latest video: Why the UKs situation may be better than it looks. What's happening in Gibraltar.

Raffin

Yesterday 899 new cases announced. A small number from backlog. Two labs late. Positivity slightly lower at 2.4% from 37.2k tests. Tests coming along 34.1k.

Recoveries 1.7k

Deaths 188 including 156 RDs.

Active 17,052

Severe 2,558, up 23. Critical 1,074, down 15

NCR ICU 26%, down 3%. National 27%, down 2%
NCR ICU use fallen by 6% in a week.

Regional data:

NCR 161
Zam 120
4A 111
Cag 76
WV 70
CV 60

There were generally small changes yesterday in regional case numbers.

The NCR had a few less cases and a low 17.9% of all cases.
Zamboanga had 48 more to unusually come second.
Region 4A reported 24 more and these top 3 regions had 43.6% of all cases, up.

WV had 16 more over the day before.
The top 6 regions had 66.5% of all cases, also up.

The 3 day vaccination drive target lowered by 40%!

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/27/...ringe-shortage

If you read the article not just due to the syringe shortage.

Weekly update later today.

Raffin

Weekly update:

The Philippines reported 29% less new cases last week compared to the week before. A slight slowdown in the rate of case reduction from last week's 35%.

A majority of regions had a reduction in new cases, Those with more than a 50% % fall were:

BARMM
Davao
E Visayas
Bicol
NCR
W Visayas
CAR

Five regions went into reverse with a high % increase:

Calabarzon
C Luzon
N Mindanao
Ilocos
SOCCSKSARGEN

Zamboanga had a 1% new case increase.

Note on Central Visayas:

There might have been a large downward adjustment in that region's data over the last week as by my figures it actually showed a fall in total cases. Otherwise it is a transcription error on my part from the DOH website to my notebook. Whatever the reason I can't go back and check, so I can't say what happened last week to CV. It had a 36% fall the week before on the previous week.

For NCR cities:

Cities with the largest falls (over 40%) were, in decreasing order:

Malabon
Manila
Marikina
Pasay

QC had a 10% fall, Caloocan 1% only.

Two cities had large increases, over 100%:

Taguig
Las Pinas

Like the C Visayas region the Pasig and Makati figures were also showing a fall in total cases. Again, could have been my error or a downward adjustment by the DOH.
Since the number of new cases are now low DOH adjustments, which are routine, now show up more as they can be greater than the additions in new cases.

All the provinces I am tracking around the NCR except one showed an increase in new cases:

Rizal 225%
Batangas 136
Pangasinan 104
Bulacan 99
Laguna 44
Pampanga 38
Cavite 33
Bataan 14

Quezon's fell by 14%

Cities:

Bacolod -36%
Baguio -54 (Alert Level 3)
CDO -53
Cebu a nine fold increase!
Cotabato +40
Davao -64
GenSan -40
Iligan increase only from 0 to 5 new cases.
IloIlo -67
Tacloban: seems to have been subject to downward adjustment
Zamboanga +16 (AL 3)

Other areas:

Catanduanes -71% (AL 4)
Mountain Province -81 (AL 3)
Siquijor -77 (AL 3)

So overall in the country case falls continue at a fast rate but with some exceptions in a few NCR cities and nearly all the populated provinces around the capital. Somewhat patchy in the NCR but suggesting the opening up, increased travelling and preparations for the holiday season are increasing virus transmission in these areas especially.

Raffin

About 60 fewer cases announced yesterday at 838 new cases, a small backlog included. No late lab submissions. A 2.4% positivity from 34.2k tests, with a similar number in preparation.

Recoveries 1.2k

Deaths 156, 117 RDs

Active 16,630
https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...Y?ocid=BingHPC

The OCTA group questioning the active case numbers. I think a good number of those early active cases unfortunately ended up as recovery deaths. The OCTA group should investigate them.

Severe 2,528, down 30. Critical 1,081, up 7.

NCR ICU 27%, up 1%. National 27%, unchanged.

Regional data:

NCR 161
4A 80
Cag 76
CV 75
WV 52
Zam 51

Probably just a coincidence, but 5 regions reporting exactly the same number as the day before. Including the NCR, which had 19.2% of total cases.

Small changes elsewhere, with 7 regions having more cases, 5 with less than the day before.

Top 3 regions 37.8% of all cases, down
Top 6 with 59.0%, also down.

Government considering the return of face shields:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/28/...due-to-omicron

We've kept ours because I thought they might come back. For the people who keep pushing them its become almost a religious belief ie one not based on evidence. High mask wearing, the young population plus other restrictions well adhered to by the people protected the Philippines from more serious damage from the Delta variant.

Note the Health Secretary saying that anything that can protect people more is worthwhile. OK, so full PPE?

Interesting to compare with the latest from the UK:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-59449480

Latest (Nov 27) Philippines vaccination numbers:

Full vaccination: 35M
First dose only 44.5M
Their target 70M fully vaccinated.

Between 32 and 40% (Johns Hopkins) of the population, depending on the population figure used.

For other nearby Asian countries:

Thailand 57.7%
Malaysia 78.4%
Indonesia 34.4%
Vietnam 46.8%

Regional data (from ABS-CBN, as of Nov 16):


Total doses. The NCR with the lion's share. Calabarzon, with about the same population has had about 40% less. See my post yesterday on its increased weekly case changes.

Raffin

New cases about 170 less yesterday at 665. Backlog only 20. Three labs late and still 2 non operational. But the DOH estimate they would likely only account for a handful of cases. Positivity 2.1% from 32.6k tests. Only 23.6k in preparation.

Recoveries 1k

Deaths 141, 129 RDs

Active 16,289

Severe 2,541, up 13. Critical 1,075, down 6

NCR ICU, National %. Both unchanged at 27%.

Regional data:

NCR 164
Cag 74
4A 74
WV 71
Zam 51
CL 44

Only 4 regions with more cases over the day before, 12 had less.
The WV region reported 19 more.

The NCR with a higher 24.7% of all cases.

The top 3 regions 46.9% of all cases, the top 6 with 71.9%. Both up on the day before.


https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops..._picks&order=2

They're not going to get near the 9M target.

According to General Galvez, the "Vaccine Czar", they are concentrating on 6 regions:

Calabarzon
Central Luzon
BARMM
Bicol
SOCCSKSARGEN
Zamboanga Pen

The first two with some renewed virus transmission.
The last 4 with a low % of vaccinations so far.

The Visayas not included but this Rappler news item reports the regional DOH there has been under pressure to increase vaccinations:

https://www.rappler.com/nation/weste...d-19-vax-blitz

Omicron variant:


Dr John does a good job comparing two different early SA reports on the Omicron variant.
See "Omicron objectivity".

Raffin

The usual depressed testing on Sunday giving a much lower 425 cases, though 88 positives were held over and 4 labs were late to submit. Positivity 2.1% from 24.4k tests. A higher 29.6k on the way.

Recoveries 0.9k

Deaths 44, 40 RDs.

Active: 15,800

Severe 2,528, down 13. Critical 1,074, down 1

NCR ICU 25%, down 2%. National 26%, down 1%

Regional data;

NCR 66
Cag 48
4A 46
CAR 38
CL 34
Zam 31

Only 3 regions had more cases, the rest with less.

The NCR with nearly 100 less new cases and a low 15.5% of all cases.
The top 3 regions at 37.6% of all cases, down.

The CAR added 17.
Top 6 regions with 61.9% of all cases, also down.

Ilocos added 17 to report 30 cases.

The NCR staying at AL 2 until at least Dec 13. One province at AL 3. The rest of the country at AL 2.
They're preparing for AL 1, but restrictions not yet decided! What they do about Omicron will decide whether AL 1 is moved to.
My guess is they won't.

https://www.rappler.com/nation/metro...ber-1-15-2021/

Gazza-d

I would be very surprised if Omicron is not already here. Three of the origin countries including South Africa being on the green list and having three weks or more to circulate the world

Raffin

Could well be G. Given the poor monitoring here we won't know for months.

The BBC reporting Omicron found in Dutch samples taken before the earliest in S A.