NCR llockdown

Old Nov 12th 2020, 4:01 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Originally Posted by Philosophical 11
Pfizer,the makers of Viagra will soon have the vaccine for Covid 19 available. If they can raise the dead, they can surely protect the living.....
The Philippines just tried to buy some but it was sorry no stock. It's been said that even if they can source any it would take a year or two to put cold store chain in place. The UK is talking about vaccinating 1 million people a week which with 2 doses would take something like two and a half years to do everyone. At that rate it would take the Philippines 4-5 years but given we are talking about the Philippine you would be lucky to get your shots in 10.
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Old Nov 12th 2020, 9:05 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Back posting after power restored.

Cases announced on November 11 1,672. Eight labs did not report. Only 70% of the positives were recent out of 20k tests.
Location detail below.

Deaths were 49 with 10 recovery deaths.
Critical unchanged.

DOH website down. Will show latest recent cases chart when available.

Details on location of November 10 cases unavailable.
Details of November 11 cases:


...and another 25 from Mindanao.

Recent cases for NCR down to about 280, for 4A about 220.







Four new entrants from Benguet, Mindanao and Cebu,

A look at the latest world table:


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Old Nov 12th 2020, 9:23 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Cases announced November 12 were at 1,407 with 17 labs not reporting. Positives were at 1,501...strangely nearly 100 more than the number announced?? Out of 23.7k cases.
Typhoon Ulysses will obviously reduce testing and result processing for a while.

Apart from the NCR top 5 provinces were:



Deaths at 11 with Recovery Deaths (RD) at 8. (As they are coming out with these every day I will use RD in future.)
Some people are calling them "Zombie Deaths"!!

Critical list down 10 to 1,438.

Last edited by Raffin; Nov 12th 2020 at 9:51 am. Reason: Wrong figure for RD.
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Old Nov 12th 2020, 10:01 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Returning to the Pfizer vaccine I understand it is not as straightforward as some would like. It seems that two shots are necessary, does not give protection for 4 weeks and requires a very low temperatures in the cold chain. Also £25 a pop.
The Oxford vaccine when available as I understand it does not require an unusually low cold chain, one shot and less than £5 a pop.
I notice that the PRC version has hit a snag during trials in Brazil and the PRC is as usual economical with the state of progress
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Old Nov 12th 2020, 10:50 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Originally Posted by Bealinehx
Returning to the Pfizer vaccine I understand it is not as straightforward as some would like. It seems that two shots are necessary, does not give protection for 4 weeks and requires a very low temperatures in the cold chain. Also £25 a pop.
The Oxford vaccine when available as I understand it does not require an unusually low cold chain, one shot and less than £5 a pop.
I notice that the PRC version has hit a snag during trials in Brazil and the PRC is as usual economical with the state of progress
We've just had a reminder about the unreliability of power supplies here and I would have thought because of that Pfizer is a no no.

The original vaccine budget was P2.5bn. The latest proposal from the House of Representatives was to increase it to P8bn. But the DOH said at least P12.5bn needed. Of the 2021 budget a quarter is for the manly Chinese financed "Build, Build, build" program. P1.1trillion. That's a very high yearly allocation for any country. They could just delay some of these projects and avoid the country having to rely on the WHO Covax scheme plus cheap Chinese and Russian vaccines.
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Old Nov 12th 2020, 8:24 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Originally Posted by Raffin
We've just had a reminder about the unreliability of power supplies here and I would have thought because of that Pfizer is a no no.

The original vaccine budget was P2.5bn. The latest proposal from the House of Representatives was to increase it to P8bn. But the DOH said at least P12.5bn needed. Of the 2021 budget a quarter is for the manly Chinese financed "Build, Build, build" program. P1.1trillion. That's a very high yearly allocation for any country. They could just delay some of these projects and avoid the country having to rely on the WHO Covax scheme plus cheap Chinese and Russian vaccines.
I think they all need freezing although like the Oxford vaccine a commercial freezer at -20 will do.
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Old Nov 13th 2020, 10:55 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday 1,902 new cases announced. A lowish figure but 29 labs did not report. Most not reporting were in the NCR and around, due to Typhoon Ulysses. Only 48% were recent too, a large backlog from last week feeding through.

Testing falling from 31k on Nov 11 down to 19.7k on the 12th.
Top 5 areas:

Province and city figures not including the NCR.


Deaths 31 with now 1,465, 27 more, on critical list.
The numbers critical always nearly twice the number in a severe condition. Meaning that many patients did not get to hospital in time to stop their condition deteriorating.

The location picture from cases announced yesterday:


For the NCR:



Note: NCR and 4A figures were all recent that day.


Except for 5 cases Davao del Sur means the city.


Two new entrants from E, Samar

Salcedo pop 22k had 44 cases first 11 days of November, Guiuan, pop 52k had 31.



Easter Samar cases growth rapid lately.

For the containing region of Eastern Visayas:



Eastern Visayas case growth


Eastern Visayas deaths

Regional growth in both cases and deaths recently.


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Old Nov 13th 2020, 12:12 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Below are some DOH charts showing the current official situation in the country, the NCR and Calabarzon:
Recent case data is probably understated due to the disruption in testing caused by recent typhoons.
For cases by date of onset and deaths at date of death look at the bars.


Consistent fall in case growth nationwide.



Consistent recent falls in case growth in the NCR.


Region 4A case growth falling but inconsistently.


Cavite was the top province today and has been in the top 5 often recently. Case growth fall has levelled off there recently.


National deaths consistently falling recently. Though RDs adding to deaths back in July and August.


NCR deaths consistently falling lately but additions to July and August.


Region 4A deaths falling recently but not consistently. Additions to July and August.

General comment:

Cases falling in the epicenters of NCR and around, and in the Visayas, except in the Eastern Visayas. Though reduced testing is overstating the falls. Cases rising in some areas of Mindanao especially Davao. Also of concern certain areas of Northern Luzon. Problem is that rising cases in small Provincial cities, smaller communities and workplaces, mines etc can easily overwhelm local hospitals and raise the case fatality rate.

As the European experience shows as an economy opens up eg festive season, social mixing increases and people can get careless. Then new case resurgence can occur and the virus outbreak, which for any country and especially a third world country is certain to have many unreported cases in the background, will grow for many more months until vaccination can start to make an impression.
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Old Nov 14th 2020, 10:06 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Announced yesterday another 1,650 new cases, though only 72% were recent. Still a backlog going through. Nine labs not reporting. The positive cases came from 19.5k tests. The latest testing of individuals number is 25.8k two days ago.

Top 5 locations not including the NCR were:



Four out of five in Region 4A!
More location detail tomorrow.

Deaths at 39 with RDs at 16,
Critical list at 1,455, down 10,

More detailed location numbers from cases announced on November 13:


Recent cases for NCR est 190. For 4A 160.
Plus another 67 cases for Mindanao.

For the NCR:






Cavite and Davao have featured before in the top 10, but Cebu re-entering after a long absence is a surprise.

The top 20 cities and municipalities:


Davao and Cebu Cities

Cebu City was an epicenter a few months ago and has racked up 10,623 cases to date and over 600 deaths. But now with only 206 active cases.
This latest small uptick, maybe a result of the Typhoons lately, will be of concern there.

Davao has nearly twice the population and is much less densely populated. But it already has over 5k cases and nearly 2k of those are active, Deaths at 149.
Its 18 facilities are at an average of over 84% capacity. Few vacancies at ICUs and of isolation beds. Should be doing much better.

New cases in Davao City rose weekly during October and early November:



On international case comparisons the Philippines keeps improving, but only because Turkey and many European countries have second waves:
Now 26th.



Seeing we are now at 406k cases we can go back to the UP forecasts from a few months ago:


We're well above the lower confidence limit line at mid November, and taking into account lower testing for various reasons over the last month or so brings us much closer to the mean.

As for the future the difficulties in observing social distancing during a category 3 typhoon hitting populated areas recently are bound to result in more cases.
Especially as the latest national reproduction number estimated at 1.0 on November 7. It will be higher than 1.0 for many of the typhoon affected areas.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/15/...lity-in-the-ph




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Old Nov 15th 2020, 7:26 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Another 1,530 new cases yesterday, 87% recent out of 20k tested. Latest testing for Nov 14 is 25.7k. Lab submission data not given!
Top 5 locations not including NCR:



Deaths at 41. No other details given.
Mass recoveries announced 11.3k.
Active cases now number 25.7k. Last Sunday they were 27.2k.

More location details for November 14 cases:


Plus another 11 from Mindanao.

Unusually the NCR case total exceeded by Calabarzon.
Estimates for recent cases: 4A 260, NCR 240.



Cities from all over the country featuring.
A notable new entrant given recent events is Tuguegarao City in flood hit Cagayan.

Japan is a country not heard about much in relation to covid but that may change as it faces a third wave. Yesterday, November 15 1,694 new cases were announced. Doing half the testing per head of population compared to the Philippines. Now at 51st in the world table with 117k cases and 1,883 deaths.


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Old Nov 15th 2020, 9:27 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Latest update on C19 vaccines
Pfizer cost GBP 29.57 requires 2 doses Storage minus 78 deg C
Oxfotd cost GBP 2.33 one dose only Storage between plus 2-8 deg C Effective for 55 years and older
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Old Nov 16th 2020, 6:21 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday DOH announced another 1,738 cases but only 52% of them are recent. More backlog being submitted. Nine labs did nit submit cases in time.
Positive samples were from 15.2k individuals and the test numbers from November 15 are only 19.3k. Lower testing levels lately.



The top 5 locations not including NCR were:



Deaths at 7 with nearly all, 6, RDs.
Critical at 1,451 patients. Yesterday's number was 1,438, so a small increase.
Deaths now officially at 7,839.

More detail on the locations of cases for November 15:



About 370 cases from the NCR were recent.
Regional breakdown was not available.


Calabarzon (Region 4A) featuring strongly.

By city or municipality:


Cebu City again featuring.

Regio 4A has more population than the NCR and a great deal of industry. Taking over from the NCR as the epicenter.
Here are the new cases for the region as a whole and then for the Province of Cavite: (look at bars for recent cases, not trend lines)


Recent falls in new cases but showing a recent increase in Region 4A.


Cavite new cases also showing slight recent increases.

Won't be able to post tomorrow as we are moving back to Upper Cavite after 8 months trapped in Paranaque.

Although the growth in Cavite cases is mainly in areas in the North of the province near to Manila it seems possible that when quarantine areas are next reviewed its and other 4A provinces MGCQ classifications might revert back to GCQ, to join Batangas. More restrictions will not be welcomed in our area which depends on tourists from the rest of Cavite and Manila. Will report more on this in the weeks to come.

Should be able to resume reporting on Thursday.


.
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Old Nov 17th 2020, 6:07 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

New cases yesterday from the DOH at 1,148, but with 31 of the now 166 labs not reporting. Of those only 920 were recent positives, 52%. Tested were only 17.9k, but 24.6k samples were taken on November 16. Testing still badly affected by Ulysses.

Top 5 locations other than the NCR were:



Deaths at 23 with 8 of them RDs.
Critical 1,444. A slight decrease.
More location detail to come on November 17 cases.

More detail on cases announced November 16:


Plus 5 Mindanao.

Recent cases estimate 210 Calabarzon, 180 NCR.




Another day showing more new cases in Cebu cities:






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Old Nov 18th 2020, 5:32 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday 1,383 cases,,91% recent for a change, from 22.4k tests on individuals. Latest testing for November 17 is 24.7k.
17 labs gave no report. out of 166 in total.
Locations:


More detail tomorrow.

Deaths at a high 95. Useful to know where but no details.
Critical 1,454, up 10.

Locations of November 17 cases:


Plus BARMM 12.

For NCR apply 80% (not 52% as I incorrectly stated yesterday) to get about 180 recent for NCR and about 170 for 4A.

For NCR cities:



For Provinces:




Three cities in Zamboanga del Sur and Norte now showing.
Also new Laoag City in Illocos Norte. Province chart below:



The DOH saying no cases yet from evacuation centers, but there will surely be more cases over the next two weeks or so due to recent Luzon wide weather events. Especially in Cagayan and Bicol.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/18/...ed-by-typhoons







































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Old Nov 19th 2020, 9:34 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Cases yesterday plus 1,337, seemingly all recent as 1,555 positives were found. Why 218 weren't announced is not explained. Tests were at 24.8k with 28.8k done on individuals two days ago.
Top 5 locations not including the NCR were:



There were 41 deaths reported and one news agency said that 10 of those were RDs. The DOH continue to make it difficult to get locational data on deaths. To do so you would have to go through their regional death data charts. So today I can only report that on November 14 there were 5 deaths from the NCR out of the 31 nationally for that day. One day soon when I have time I will try and get some more data on regional deaths as it is an important feature of the pandemic here that is being unreported since the DOH stopped publishing daily regional data a few weeks ago.

Critical down 21 at 1,433.

Locational data on November 18 cases:


Also: Illocos 24,Cagayan Valley 20, BARMM 19 and Bicol 16.
Both NCR and 4A with about 320 recent cases.


Region 4A provinces with 5 out of the top 6 positions.



Below see the testing data for the NCR only:
From its now 67 labs up to November 17.
Positivity down to 3.9% while for the whole country it's 5.5%.


The experts put the improvement down mainly to the efforts of the NCR cities. While very densely populated areas aid virus spread they are more amenable to testing and tracing efforts if scaled up. Whereas areas outside Manila, like Calabarzon, are now where the virus is spreading because, although less dense, testing and tracing efforts are made over greater areas with less resources and medical facilities. Death rates will be higher too.

Davao City has now been reverted back to GCQ because of:



and bed occupancy:



For more detail you can read this ABS-CBN report:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/20/...for-davao-city

Finally a useful summary chart from the BBC on the progress of some of the leading vaccine candidates against Covid-19:



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