NCR llockdown
Jan 16th 2021, 10:28 pm
#616
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Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday another tally of just over 2k and with 5 labs not reporting. We don't hear the DOH trumpeting how many labs are operating these days. Have some closed down?
Positivity at 5.9%. Almost 1k backlog went through. Tests in progress 33.3k.
Top places:
Mountain Province newcomer.
Deaths 8 with 1 RD.
Critical 1,319, down 6...has been falling recently. How much due to patients improving and how much to increased deaths?
More detail for January 15:
Note that 9 regions and nearly 10 with over 100.
Other Mindanao 87.
NCR contributing only 19% of cases.
First time Pangasinan is the top province Also note the absence of Region 4A provinces.
Seven NCR cities middle of table to near the top.
Plus many other urban areas nationwide.
Sharp increase after New Yea for Pangasinan.
Reproduction number estimates latest (Jan 11) are 1.22 nationally, 1.21 NCR....both subject to 0,02 variation at 95% confidence.
The BBC put out a useful chart on R:
If sustained for only a month an R value of 1.1 can increase cases 9 fold. Whereas one of 0,9 by only 5 times. The oft quoted target of 1.0 by 7 times. Although a sustained 1.0 is deemed by epidemiologists to eventually end an epidemic. Over a two month period one could even see 25 times more cases with an R of 1.1. So R values of around 1.2 are worryingly large.
How good are R estimates here? The OCTA group of experts don't show their workings. However one of the factors they should take into account is contact tracing.
https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/01/16/...ontact-tracers
Hopefully this report will translate for you. The picture it gives to me is not a good one a few months after a lot of fanfare when the DOH said they were hiring 30k contact tracers. Then came the appointment of a Czar. for contact tracing. Since then not much announced. Many, perhaps most, then laid off. So re-hiring 15k now as the DOH is seeing cases rise. But those offices have to be started up again. No doubt many individual cities have their own more stable operations, but the DOH effort looks very unsatisfactory.
Lack of money is mentioned more than once by the DOH under secretary in the above report. Something coming through also in all the talk about the government's vaccine plans here. Apart from the political aspects in decision making I mentioned yesterday, the need for early and cheap vaccines here to control the outbreak is clear if case rise continues and is more nationwide, Another strict lockdown is not an option. These vaccines happen to be from China and maybe Russia. "SM bonus" vaccines, if you like. With a few exceptions I tend to avoid buying those products! There is an unwillingness here to change budget priorities. These were set at the start of the pandemic when it was expected to last months, rather than years. Funds could be diverted from Infrastructure Build3, or military areas....but won't be. The same can be said for the pandemic relief budget..
Looking in E Asia Japan seeing a large 3rd wave, with recent new case numbers on a par with the Philippines. Tokyo more than 2,000:
Positivity at 5.9%. Almost 1k backlog went through. Tests in progress 33.3k.
Top places:
Mountain Province newcomer.
Deaths 8 with 1 RD.
Critical 1,319, down 6...has been falling recently. How much due to patients improving and how much to increased deaths?
More detail for January 15:
Note that 9 regions and nearly 10 with over 100.
Other Mindanao 87.
NCR contributing only 19% of cases.
First time Pangasinan is the top province Also note the absence of Region 4A provinces.
Seven NCR cities middle of table to near the top.
Plus many other urban areas nationwide.
Sharp increase after New Yea for Pangasinan.
Reproduction number estimates latest (Jan 11) are 1.22 nationally, 1.21 NCR....both subject to 0,02 variation at 95% confidence.
The BBC put out a useful chart on R:
If sustained for only a month an R value of 1.1 can increase cases 9 fold. Whereas one of 0,9 by only 5 times. The oft quoted target of 1.0 by 7 times. Although a sustained 1.0 is deemed by epidemiologists to eventually end an epidemic. Over a two month period one could even see 25 times more cases with an R of 1.1. So R values of around 1.2 are worryingly large.
How good are R estimates here? The OCTA group of experts don't show their workings. However one of the factors they should take into account is contact tracing.
https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/01/16/...ontact-tracers
Hopefully this report will translate for you. The picture it gives to me is not a good one a few months after a lot of fanfare when the DOH said they were hiring 30k contact tracers. Then came the appointment of a Czar. for contact tracing. Since then not much announced. Many, perhaps most, then laid off. So re-hiring 15k now as the DOH is seeing cases rise. But those offices have to be started up again. No doubt many individual cities have their own more stable operations, but the DOH effort looks very unsatisfactory.
Lack of money is mentioned more than once by the DOH under secretary in the above report. Something coming through also in all the talk about the government's vaccine plans here. Apart from the political aspects in decision making I mentioned yesterday, the need for early and cheap vaccines here to control the outbreak is clear if case rise continues and is more nationwide, Another strict lockdown is not an option. These vaccines happen to be from China and maybe Russia. "SM bonus" vaccines, if you like. With a few exceptions I tend to avoid buying those products! There is an unwillingness here to change budget priorities. These were set at the start of the pandemic when it was expected to last months, rather than years. Funds could be diverted from Infrastructure Build3, or military areas....but won't be. The same can be said for the pandemic relief budget..
Looking in E Asia Japan seeing a large 3rd wave, with recent new case numbers on a par with the Philippines. Tokyo more than 2,000:
Jan 17th 2021, 8:59 pm
#617
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Re: NCR llockdown
Announced January 17 1,895 cases, a backlog of test results going through of over 700. Five labs did not report.
Positives at 5.3% from 20.9k tests. Tests on the way at 27k.
Official Philippines infection tally now over 500,000.
Top 5 locations:
Deaths 11.
Critical 1,309, another fall, down 10.
Active cases now 2.5% more on last week ........up to 24,691 after fewer than usual Sunday Mass Recoveries announced by the DOH.
Detail of locations for January 16 cases:
Other Mindanao 34
Plus Valenzuala 24, Pasay 23
Another day with many regions reporting over 100 new cases. Six regions on Jan 16, with unusually high numbers from the CAR. Benguet was the top CAR province, Baguio second city. CAR's Mountain province and Kalinga province were also un the top 10.
The CAR numbers falling before Xmas, but rising sharply in the New Year. Probably due to festive gatherings and maybe that January is the coldest month.
NCR at 22% of total cases, in line with recent percentages in the low 20s. 10 of its cities were in the top 20.
The NCR Reproductive number mean estimate is now at 1.12, well below the national estimate of 1.22. Even though QC and some other NCR cities are showing a significant uptick after Xmas:
QC new cases.
Changes on the week:
New cases up at 12,980 from 8,876 last week. 1,844 per day from 1,268 per day average.
Infections picked up over the holidays beginning to show in the numbers.
Deaths at 490 from 140, although the total inflated by nearly 200 RDs announced from an ongoing validation program. Most of those deaths occurred many weeks ago.
Positives at 5.3% from 20.9k tests. Tests on the way at 27k.
Official Philippines infection tally now over 500,000.
Top 5 locations:
Deaths 11.
Critical 1,309, another fall, down 10.
Active cases now 2.5% more on last week ........up to 24,691 after fewer than usual Sunday Mass Recoveries announced by the DOH.
Detail of locations for January 16 cases:
Other Mindanao 34
Plus Valenzuala 24, Pasay 23
Another day with many regions reporting over 100 new cases. Six regions on Jan 16, with unusually high numbers from the CAR. Benguet was the top CAR province, Baguio second city. CAR's Mountain province and Kalinga province were also un the top 10.
The CAR numbers falling before Xmas, but rising sharply in the New Year. Probably due to festive gatherings and maybe that January is the coldest month.
NCR at 22% of total cases, in line with recent percentages in the low 20s. 10 of its cities were in the top 20.
The NCR Reproductive number mean estimate is now at 1.12, well below the national estimate of 1.22. Even though QC and some other NCR cities are showing a significant uptick after Xmas:
QC new cases.
Changes on the week:
New cases up at 12,980 from 8,876 last week. 1,844 per day from 1,268 per day average.
Infections picked up over the holidays beginning to show in the numbers.
Deaths at 490 from 140, although the total inflated by nearly 200 RDs announced from an ongoing validation program. Most of those deaths occurred many weeks ago.
Jan 18th 2021, 5:11 pm
#618
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Re: NCR llockdown
Another total over 2k yesterday, 4 labs not reporting. Tests of 891 positives were 19.2k giving positivity of 4.6%. :Large backlog was processed. Tests in process number not available.
Top locations:
Cagayan, Leyte new entrants here.
Deaths 14.
Notable that only 2 recoveries were announced.
Critical 1,315. Up 6.
Detailed locations from January 17:
Illocos 27,BARMM 15
NCR 26% of total and 12 of its cities in the top 20.
Along with 4A, Central Luzon, CAR, Davao, Central and E. Visayas, these 7 regions made up 77% of total cases.
The National picture and 3 Major Cities. Ignore trend lines.
Nationally...
NCR
Davao City
Cebu City
Falling case numbers and better treatment means deaths have been falling since August. But ignore the trendlines especially here again as there are so many late reported. Then note the number has not been falling so smoothly recently as serious cases increase away from the epicenter of Manila and its surrounding area with its better hospital facilities. Unfortunately numbers are likely to plateau in the next few weeks due to the recent case increase.
Top locations:
Cagayan, Leyte new entrants here.
Deaths 14.
Notable that only 2 recoveries were announced.
Critical 1,315. Up 6.
Detailed locations from January 17:
Illocos 27,BARMM 15
NCR 26% of total and 12 of its cities in the top 20.
Along with 4A, Central Luzon, CAR, Davao, Central and E. Visayas, these 7 regions made up 77% of total cases.
The National picture and 3 Major Cities. Ignore trend lines.
Nationally...
NCR
Davao City
Cebu City
Falling case numbers and better treatment means deaths have been falling since August. But ignore the trendlines especially here again as there are so many late reported. Then note the number has not been falling so smoothly recently as serious cases increase away from the epicenter of Manila and its surrounding area with its better hospital facilities. Unfortunately numbers are likely to plateau in the next few weeks due to the recent case increase.
Jan 19th 2021, 5:16 am
#619
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Re: NCR llockdown
It's long but in the first 30 minutes Dr John interviews David Davis MP on the use of Vitamin D as an anti covid treatment. The results of a Spanish trial were very encouraging.
Exposure to UV rays is an important way to keep up one's vitamin D. You would think the Philippines would be Ok for that but a study here found most people deficient. Except for those engaged in manual work outside the aim of people here is to avoid exposure.
,
Exposure to UV rays is an important way to keep up one's vitamin D. You would think the Philippines would be Ok for that but a study here found most people deficient. Except for those engaged in manual work outside the aim of people here is to avoid exposure.
,
Jan 19th 2021, 8:12 am
#620
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Location: Suffolk UK
Posts: 1,179
Re: NCR llockdown
Yes watched Dr John yesterday evening, have become a regular viewer. Even though there is still low levels of Vitamin D in the Philippines I would think they are still on average higher than in the northern latitude countries. Maybe why the Philippines seems to be doing relatively better. I remember vitamin D being touted as a benifit early on in the pandemic. My concern is that if the Philippines doesn't sort itself out the local pool of virus could mutate into something more serious as is happening elsewhere in the world, their are hints that the UK variant may have originated in Italy. The problem with a Philippines variant would be that it could be very difficult to contain because as soon as it gets into another country it would go TNT.
Last edited by Gazza-d; Jan 19th 2021 at 8:18 am.
Jan 19th 2021, 3:35 pm
#621
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Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday a lower 1,357 case count. Four labs did not report. A backlog of over 400 results added to 941 gave a positivity of 5.7%. Tests in progress only 16.4k.
Positivity on the increase since early December.
Top 5 locations:
Davao City continuing to surge.
Deaths 69 with most being RDs, 56 of them.
Critical 1,309. Down 6. Since Jan 1 down nearly 5%.
More detail on January 18 cases:
Other Mindanao 39.
NCR with just 20% of the cases and 9 cities in the top 20.
Six other regions with over 100 cases showing the largest daily provincial contribution so far this year.
Davao and CAR with both well over 200.
Cagayan Valley with 151 cases and Cagayan 100 and its capital 85:
Cagayan cases.
Indonesia announcing over 10k new cases yesterday, over 9k the day before:
Four QC areas placed in a "granular lockdown"
https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...d?ocid=BingHPC
Positivity on the increase since early December.
Top 5 locations:
Davao City continuing to surge.
Deaths 69 with most being RDs, 56 of them.
Critical 1,309. Down 6. Since Jan 1 down nearly 5%.
More detail on January 18 cases:
Other Mindanao 39.
NCR with just 20% of the cases and 9 cities in the top 20.
Six other regions with over 100 cases showing the largest daily provincial contribution so far this year.
Davao and CAR with both well over 200.
Cagayan Valley with 151 cases and Cagayan 100 and its capital 85:
Cagayan cases.
Indonesia announcing over 10k new cases yesterday, over 9k the day before:
Four QC areas placed in a "granular lockdown"
https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...d?ocid=BingHPC
Jan 20th 2021, 4:14 pm
#622
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Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday another 1,862 cases, 2 labs not reporting. Over 200 backlog added to the positives count out of 26.8k tests and slightly higher positivity at 6.1%. Tests coming along 24k, not a high number considering the rising positivity.
Top 5 locations:
Surprisingly large number from Zamboanga City.
Zamboanga City cases.
The city has a 1m population, 6th highest in the country. Perhaps significant for covid testing it covers the 3rd greatest area.
Deaths 64 with 57 of them from December. Case fatality rate up to 1.98%.
Critical 1,301, down 8.
More detail on January 19 cases:
Other Mindanao 31.
NCR 22%, consistent with recent figures. Nine cities in top 20. QC again with highest number.
Six regions with numbers over 100.
Recently in the NCR:
Marikina and San Juan of greatest concern with new cases per head of population.
Eight cities out of the 17 showing case increases last week.
Outside Manila it is a picture of rising test positivity in many areas, up to nearly 20% in Benguet, Kalinga, Pangasinan, Isabela and Cagayan in the North.
Positivity around 14% for Leyte and Negros Oriental.
In Mindanao Misamis Or at 13%.
Quezon province also 13%.
Cebu and Davao del Sur showing recent large case increases.
One wonders how well the LGUs in these areas are operating testing due to their remoteness. Judging by the number of tests not so well.
The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation in the US publishes projections regularly.
Philippines projections can be seen at:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/phili...est=infections
Note that they project total infections, not just the official numbers. For the Philippines you can see at about 4 times the official figures.. For Britain and the US it is about 3 times. For the US going forward he spread of the UK variant is an important variable due to its established 50% greater transmission rate. One case only, but In the Philippines 13 people got sick from contact with that one case.
Already slow with vaccines the UK variant is a big threat to the Philippines economic recovery, which will already be weak and later than other countries in SE Asia. Question is how many other OFWs with it from the UK returned here before increased surveillance measures were started?
Top 5 locations:
Surprisingly large number from Zamboanga City.
Zamboanga City cases.
The city has a 1m population, 6th highest in the country. Perhaps significant for covid testing it covers the 3rd greatest area.
Deaths 64 with 57 of them from December. Case fatality rate up to 1.98%.
Critical 1,301, down 8.
More detail on January 19 cases:
Other Mindanao 31.
NCR 22%, consistent with recent figures. Nine cities in top 20. QC again with highest number.
Six regions with numbers over 100.
Recently in the NCR:
Marikina and San Juan of greatest concern with new cases per head of population.
Eight cities out of the 17 showing case increases last week.
Outside Manila it is a picture of rising test positivity in many areas, up to nearly 20% in Benguet, Kalinga, Pangasinan, Isabela and Cagayan in the North.
Positivity around 14% for Leyte and Negros Oriental.
In Mindanao Misamis Or at 13%.
Quezon province also 13%.
Cebu and Davao del Sur showing recent large case increases.
One wonders how well the LGUs in these areas are operating testing due to their remoteness. Judging by the number of tests not so well.
The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation in the US publishes projections regularly.
Philippines projections can be seen at:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/phili...est=infections
Note that they project total infections, not just the official numbers. For the Philippines you can see at about 4 times the official figures.. For Britain and the US it is about 3 times. For the US going forward he spread of the UK variant is an important variable due to its established 50% greater transmission rate. One case only, but In the Philippines 13 people got sick from contact with that one case.
Already slow with vaccines the UK variant is a big threat to the Philippines economic recovery, which will already be weak and later than other countries in SE Asia. Question is how many other OFWs with it from the UK returned here before increased surveillance measures were started?
Jan 21st 2021, 9:02 pm
#623
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Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 2,353
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday 1,783 new cases announced with four labs not reporting. Of those there was a backlog of over 400. Positivity was at a higher 6%. Tests in progress 28.2k.
Top locations:
Back to NCR and Region 4A...
Deaths 74 with 15RDs.
Critical 1,326, up 25.
Detail from January 20 cases:
Plus other Mindanao 23.
A surprising very large number of cases from Zamboanga City, Perhaps most a backlog?
NCR with only 16.4% of total cases as CAR leads with over 17%.
CAR urban areas with 5 places in the top 20. NCR cities took 7.
The top eight regions accounted for three quarters of the country's cases.
https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...o?ocid=BingHPC
The long running debate about Sweden and its anti covid policies continues as it passes a law giving the government power to impose some stricter measures, though travel bans are not included. They do include powers to shut shopping centres, limit public events and impose fines for social distancing violations. Masks now recommended but still not mandatory. Masks were previously not generally worn, even by children in schools.
The new measures follow a spike in cases back in November, though since then daily cases have consistently fallen.
On cases per million the latest figures show Sweden at 53.6, is much higher than its close neighbours Norway at 11.0, Finland at 7.5 and Denmark 33.1. Sweden in line with many other European countries eg the UK and France at 52 and 46.
The latest figures on case fatality show a greater disparity with Sweden's neighbours at 1,078 per million. Compared to Norway at 100. Finland 124 and Denmark 329. But some other European countries are higher eg UK 1,389, France 1102, Belgium 1,771. Belgium started a second lockdown last November. Swedish daily deaths have been on a decline from a peak in December.
Top locations:
Back to NCR and Region 4A...
Deaths 74 with 15RDs.
Critical 1,326, up 25.
Detail from January 20 cases:
Plus other Mindanao 23.
A surprising very large number of cases from Zamboanga City, Perhaps most a backlog?
NCR with only 16.4% of total cases as CAR leads with over 17%.
CAR urban areas with 5 places in the top 20. NCR cities took 7.
The top eight regions accounted for three quarters of the country's cases.
https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...o?ocid=BingHPC
The long running debate about Sweden and its anti covid policies continues as it passes a law giving the government power to impose some stricter measures, though travel bans are not included. They do include powers to shut shopping centres, limit public events and impose fines for social distancing violations. Masks now recommended but still not mandatory. Masks were previously not generally worn, even by children in schools.
The new measures follow a spike in cases back in November, though since then daily cases have consistently fallen.
On cases per million the latest figures show Sweden at 53.6, is much higher than its close neighbours Norway at 11.0, Finland at 7.5 and Denmark 33.1. Sweden in line with many other European countries eg the UK and France at 52 and 46.
The latest figures on case fatality show a greater disparity with Sweden's neighbours at 1,078 per million. Compared to Norway at 100. Finland 124 and Denmark 329. But some other European countries are higher eg UK 1,389, France 1102, Belgium 1,771. Belgium started a second lockdown last November. Swedish daily deaths have been on a decline from a peak in December.
Jan 22nd 2021, 4:17 pm
#624
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Re: NCR llockdown
The DOH announced over 2k cases yesterday, 3 labs not reporting and heavy rain affecting parts of Luzon. Highest daily total since November 8. Positivity at 5.4% and over 800 results were backlog. Tests coming along 28.6k.
Top 5 locations:
More on QC at the end..
Deaths at 20 with 5 of them RDs.
Active cases up to over 32k, highest since November 21.
Critical patients 1,313, down 13.
More detail on January 21 cases:
Plus Mandaluyong 15
Plus Caloocan City 21
A quarter of cases from the NCR region lead and the top 7 regions gave 75%.
Nine NCR cities in the top 20 urban areas.
Cebu was the top province with nearly half of its cases from Cebu City.
QC is usually the top NCR city for new cases and often the top city nationally. The city of Manila often too at the top or near it in the NCR and nationally.
In terms of cases so far in the pandemic QC leads with over 40k official, Manila with 27.5k second.
QC also has the most active cases now at over 1,600, with Manila at 1,100.
But QCs population at nearly 3m is much greater than Manila's at 1.75m. So on the latest figures QC has 578 active cases per million compared to Manila's at 628.
UK variant news:
There are 16 more cases here, its just a matter of finding them. Twelve now detected in Bontoc (Mountain province), and another 4 in Benguet, and Laguna.
A more reasonable policy of exempting those with valid visas, and spouses of citizens from the arrival ban brought in for over 30 countries. About time!
Ten to fourteen year olds can go out in MGCQ areas and authorities in GCQ areas like the NCR can allow it. One of the banning measures those against lockdowns worry about in terms of the effect on the mental health of young people caused by no physical school attendance.
Top 5 locations:
More on QC at the end..
Deaths at 20 with 5 of them RDs.
Active cases up to over 32k, highest since November 21.
Critical patients 1,313, down 13.
More detail on January 21 cases:
Plus Mandaluyong 15
Plus Caloocan City 21
A quarter of cases from the NCR region lead and the top 7 regions gave 75%.
Nine NCR cities in the top 20 urban areas.
Cebu was the top province with nearly half of its cases from Cebu City.
QC is usually the top NCR city for new cases and often the top city nationally. The city of Manila often too at the top or near it in the NCR and nationally.
In terms of cases so far in the pandemic QC leads with over 40k official, Manila with 27.5k second.
QC also has the most active cases now at over 1,600, with Manila at 1,100.
But QCs population at nearly 3m is much greater than Manila's at 1.75m. So on the latest figures QC has 578 active cases per million compared to Manila's at 628.
UK variant news:
There are 16 more cases here, its just a matter of finding them. Twelve now detected in Bontoc (Mountain province), and another 4 in Benguet, and Laguna.
A more reasonable policy of exempting those with valid visas, and spouses of citizens from the arrival ban brought in for over 30 countries. About time!
Ten to fourteen year olds can go out in MGCQ areas and authorities in GCQ areas like the NCR can allow it. One of the banning measures those against lockdowns worry about in terms of the effect on the mental health of young people caused by no physical school attendance.
Jan 22nd 2021, 9:05 pm
#625
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Location: Suffolk UK
Posts: 1,179
Re: NCR llockdown
The numbers in the UK starting to look like the UK variant has a higher mortality although it's still early days. Vaccinations, first shot is running at about 350k per day with more vaccination centres coming online. Currently about 4.5m as of today.
Jan 23rd 2021, 9:39 pm
#626
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Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday 1,797 new cases announced and 4 labs did not report. Includes a backlog of over 500 results. A 5.6% positivity resulting from 21.9k tests. But good that tests in progress are well up at 37.4k.
Top 5 areas:
Davao City sharp case increase lately...
Deaths 54. No news outlet giving notice of any RDs. Think there must be some.in that large total.
Active cases on the rise to 33,603 and critical patient number down to 1,277, a large fall of 36 on the day before.
More detail on Jan 22 cases:
Other Mindanao 25
The NCR made up 27% of cases with 14 of its cities in the top 20 urban areas.
On a provincial level Cebu led, with 154 cases, 80 of them from Cebu City.
QC as usual showing large numbers, but in line with its population size.
Central Luzon showing repeated high regional positions for case increase, which should be of concern due to its high population, one much greater than that of other regions to the north.
Central Luzon recent uptick..
UK variant:
DOH and head doctor at RITM not willing to confirm yet community transmission in Mountain Province.
But they do confirm It was here back on December 10 with the Laguna case.
Also two OFWs with it returned from Lebanon to Bontoc on Dec 11.
Mountain province with high positivity rates and 75 cases on Jan 22. The OCTA group reckon MP has one third of its cases due to the variant.
Think the UK variant has probably entered the country from the UK or elsewhere into other areas and is just waiting to be detected.
Vaccine priority:
This was the initial priority list. Now it seems the military have gone up from 5th to near the top along with the poor:
https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/01/23/...llout-vs-covid
Schooling:
With its schools closed all year no word yet here on any re-opening for face to face tuition. Bach in October digital and modular tuition has ben going on. Poor broadband, lack of budget and difficulties in material distribution have affected this poor substitute for in class tuition.. This UNESCO map shows the Phil is not in line with most other countries on school opening:
Last year the education secretary proposed an experimental opening in some areas of low infection this month, which was then canceled by the Chief Executive when he heard of the UK variant. One wonders how much thought went into hat decision.
Previously he has said no face to face classes without a vaccine available. Although late here vaccines are now on the way. But no mention of teachers in the priority groups.
Many countries have concluded that school opening is not a significant driver for community transmission and can be managed in areas of low infection. Ten to fourteen years may now go out here in many areas....but only to Malls. A more cautious approach is needed with high schools, but the risks are less at younger ages.
From an October WHO report:
More at https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...rsn=320db233_2
There now seems a strong possibility of a second year without state school attendance with bad effects on parents and kids development. Balancing of risks in this pandemic seems not to be something those at the top are good at here.
Also many less well funded private schools have suspended operations and some have closed. One report said 15 had closed in Davao. What happened with those kids learning?
Top 5 areas:
Davao City sharp case increase lately...
Deaths 54. No news outlet giving notice of any RDs. Think there must be some.in that large total.
Active cases on the rise to 33,603 and critical patient number down to 1,277, a large fall of 36 on the day before.
More detail on Jan 22 cases:
Other Mindanao 25
The NCR made up 27% of cases with 14 of its cities in the top 20 urban areas.
On a provincial level Cebu led, with 154 cases, 80 of them from Cebu City.
QC as usual showing large numbers, but in line with its population size.
Central Luzon showing repeated high regional positions for case increase, which should be of concern due to its high population, one much greater than that of other regions to the north.
Central Luzon recent uptick..
UK variant:
DOH and head doctor at RITM not willing to confirm yet community transmission in Mountain Province.
But they do confirm It was here back on December 10 with the Laguna case.
Also two OFWs with it returned from Lebanon to Bontoc on Dec 11.
Mountain province with high positivity rates and 75 cases on Jan 22. The OCTA group reckon MP has one third of its cases due to the variant.
Think the UK variant has probably entered the country from the UK or elsewhere into other areas and is just waiting to be detected.
Vaccine priority:
This was the initial priority list. Now it seems the military have gone up from 5th to near the top along with the poor:
https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/01/23/...llout-vs-covid
Schooling:
With its schools closed all year no word yet here on any re-opening for face to face tuition. Bach in October digital and modular tuition has ben going on. Poor broadband, lack of budget and difficulties in material distribution have affected this poor substitute for in class tuition.. This UNESCO map shows the Phil is not in line with most other countries on school opening:
Last year the education secretary proposed an experimental opening in some areas of low infection this month, which was then canceled by the Chief Executive when he heard of the UK variant. One wonders how much thought went into hat decision.
Previously he has said no face to face classes without a vaccine available. Although late here vaccines are now on the way. But no mention of teachers in the priority groups.
Many countries have concluded that school opening is not a significant driver for community transmission and can be managed in areas of low infection. Ten to fourteen years may now go out here in many areas....but only to Malls. A more cautious approach is needed with high schools, but the risks are less at younger ages.
From an October WHO report:
More at https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...rsn=320db233_2
There now seems a strong possibility of a second year without state school attendance with bad effects on parents and kids development. Balancing of risks in this pandemic seems not to be something those at the top are good at here.
Also many less well funded private schools have suspended operations and some have closed. One report said 15 had closed in Davao. What happened with those kids learning?
Jan 24th 2021, 4:02 pm
#627
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Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday added nearly 2k cases. Large backlog of nearly 900. Backlogs now more likely as tests being done in more labs.....over 200 now. Double the number 6 months ago. Positivity 4.3%. Tests in progress 32.9k.
Top 5 locations:
Deaths 53. Must be some RDs but figure not available, again.
Sunday mass recoveries at 7.7k.
Active patients 27,765. That is a 12% increase on a week ago.
Critical at 1,222 down 55, another large daily fall.
More detail on January 23:
NCR at a low 21% of cases, 9 of its cities in top 20.
Davao, Quezon and Cebu cities together made up over 16% of cases.
Nine capital cities were in the top 20.
For the last week daily case average was slightly higher at 1,857, up from 1,844 the week before.
Deaths announced were down at 308, compared to 490 the week before.
The R number nationally at 1.13 (NCR 1.08). Down but still well over 1.0.
Some high positivities and rising case numbers in a number of areas. Testing has recovered to pre Xmas levels back in December but now with the added complication of genomic testing to look for the UK variant. And we can assume that contact tracing is struggling in many of the more remote areas of the country now.
Main government worry: A UK variant surge would spoil a not too bad situation here currently, as it has done in a few European countries.
Looking regionally in SE Asia Indonesia having a worse time. Daily new cases at well over 10k a day for each day in the last week. Cases per million at 3,595 (Phils 4,652). Deaths per million at 101 (Phils 93). Now higher.
Top 5 locations:
Deaths 53. Must be some RDs but figure not available, again.
Sunday mass recoveries at 7.7k.
Active patients 27,765. That is a 12% increase on a week ago.
Critical at 1,222 down 55, another large daily fall.
More detail on January 23:
NCR at a low 21% of cases, 9 of its cities in top 20.
Davao, Quezon and Cebu cities together made up over 16% of cases.
Nine capital cities were in the top 20.
For the last week daily case average was slightly higher at 1,857, up from 1,844 the week before.
Deaths announced were down at 308, compared to 490 the week before.
The R number nationally at 1.13 (NCR 1.08). Down but still well over 1.0.
Some high positivities and rising case numbers in a number of areas. Testing has recovered to pre Xmas levels back in December but now with the added complication of genomic testing to look for the UK variant. And we can assume that contact tracing is struggling in many of the more remote areas of the country now.
Main government worry: A UK variant surge would spoil a not too bad situation here currently, as it has done in a few European countries.
Looking regionally in SE Asia Indonesia having a worse time. Daily new cases at well over 10k a day for each day in the last week. Cases per million at 3,595 (Phils 4,652). Deaths per million at 101 (Phils 93). Now higher.
Last edited by Raffin; Jan 24th 2021 at 4:04 pm. Reason: main not min
Jan 25th 2021, 4:23 pm
#628
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Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 2,353
Re: NCR llockdown
Cases yesterday down to just over 1,500. Positivity of the 17.4k tested was 5.2%. Backlog added was nearly 700. Tests in preparation 32.9k.
Top 5 areas:
Deaths 50 and just one RD.
Case fatality now at 2.0%, just below the international average.
Critical 1,201. Another daily fall, 21 yesterday.
More detail for January 24 cases:
Plus Bicol 27
Plus Pasay 19, San Juan 14
Cebu Province again featuring strongly, as it did also today:
NCR just under 22%, with 11 cities in top 20.
Davao and Baguio Cities join QC, Manila and Cebu cities in the top 5 urban areas.
In the NCR the small city of San Juan, followed by Marikina and Makati are showing the highest number of recent cases as a proportion of population.
On a regional level areas showing the greatest potential for more cases include many areas of N Luzon, especially Mountain Province, not yet classed as a region with community transmission of the UK variant. If it is that would explain the 19% positivity and the rapid increase in virus spread there.
Also with high positivity Misamis Oriental and Quezon provinces.
Although no confirmation of community transmission of the UK variant anywhere in the country and very strict testing of arrivals the President has not allowed 10-14 year olds generally out in MGCQ and GCQ areas as recommended by his panel of experts.
He's also adjusted vaccine priorities more after raising the military nearer to the top of the list. By now adding the considerable numbers of those in the families of servicemen and women. A complication for those in the LGUs administering the shots and it will mean many in the original list will wait longer. The vaccines are some way off here so the initial priority list only caters for about 23% of the population. Those of you who now regularly view Dr John Campbell on You tube may have heard him comment recently in an aside that the aim of vaccine priorities here was mainly to reduce infection rates rather than reduce the strain on hospitals, as it is in the UK. As hospitals here are not so significant as in countries like the UK (many seriously ill with covid here don't even make it to hospital) and the virus is not so prevalent that seems reasonable. But according to the President the army and their families need vaccines first because they maintain peace and order, not that they are major cources of infection. Using that argument the police and other forces could also be included, but he is careful not to.
https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/01/25/...lies-of-troops
Top 5 areas:
Deaths 50 and just one RD.
Case fatality now at 2.0%, just below the international average.
Critical 1,201. Another daily fall, 21 yesterday.
More detail for January 24 cases:
Plus Bicol 27
Plus Pasay 19, San Juan 14
Cebu Province again featuring strongly, as it did also today:
NCR just under 22%, with 11 cities in top 20.
Davao and Baguio Cities join QC, Manila and Cebu cities in the top 5 urban areas.
In the NCR the small city of San Juan, followed by Marikina and Makati are showing the highest number of recent cases as a proportion of population.
On a regional level areas showing the greatest potential for more cases include many areas of N Luzon, especially Mountain Province, not yet classed as a region with community transmission of the UK variant. If it is that would explain the 19% positivity and the rapid increase in virus spread there.
Also with high positivity Misamis Oriental and Quezon provinces.
Although no confirmation of community transmission of the UK variant anywhere in the country and very strict testing of arrivals the President has not allowed 10-14 year olds generally out in MGCQ and GCQ areas as recommended by his panel of experts.
He's also adjusted vaccine priorities more after raising the military nearer to the top of the list. By now adding the considerable numbers of those in the families of servicemen and women. A complication for those in the LGUs administering the shots and it will mean many in the original list will wait longer. The vaccines are some way off here so the initial priority list only caters for about 23% of the population. Those of you who now regularly view Dr John Campbell on You tube may have heard him comment recently in an aside that the aim of vaccine priorities here was mainly to reduce infection rates rather than reduce the strain on hospitals, as it is in the UK. As hospitals here are not so significant as in countries like the UK (many seriously ill with covid here don't even make it to hospital) and the virus is not so prevalent that seems reasonable. But according to the President the army and their families need vaccines first because they maintain peace and order, not that they are major cources of infection. Using that argument the police and other forces could also be included, but he is careful not to.
https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/01/25/...lies-of-troops
Jan 26th 2021, 8:35 pm
#629
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Thread Starter
Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 2,353
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday 1,173 cases reported. Positives were mostly recent from 17.6k tests at 5.2% positivity. Only 21.5k tests coming along. Testing now down on recent figures in the upper 20ks.
Top areas:
Cebu City high number again.
Deaths 94 with 15 RDs.
As recoveries were only 18 the number critical shows another large fall, 47, to 1,154.
The deaths look worse than they are as many announced recently were wrongly tagged in the past as recoveries. A long running data issue the DOH seem not to be able to rectify.
More detail on January 25 cases:
Plus Bicol 19
Pasay 12, Paranaque 10
NCR at 21% of total cases. Ten of its cities in the top 20.
The top 5 cities all the major ones from around the nation.
Cebu City and province having another wave after the first in July, when the generals were sent in to impose strict measures. Are they going to have to return?
More difficult as provincial areas of the island increasing more this time, if you compare this chart for the city with that posted for the province in my post yesterday.
Cebu City
Vaccine news:
https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/01/26/...ty-sectors-doh
Now the many in soldiers families won't queue jump. But the priority list here only for just over a fifth of the population. If you look at the footnote to the priority chart put up on Jan 24 other deserving groups are listed.......those with co-morbidities, children, pregnant women. So are they going to be done before them? Also, the list has greatly expanded as families of health workers are now included! A good example of something commonly seen here. Policy on sensitive matters being made up on the hoof, without due consideration and ending up in a mess,
A bum deal?
https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/01/26/...avirus-vaccine
For the reason given here or maybe another the country's leader won't be promoting vaccination to a sceptical public by filmed example.
The Philippines vaccine program not just late but already looking badly organised. The onus seems to be being placed on LGUs to get enough vaccines for themselves Which many are doing, especially in the NCR.. But what about other places around the country where the infections have risen recently?
https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6976
A study of studies concludes that at least one third of covid infections are asymptomatic. I recall estimates higher than that put out in the US last year. As an example 8% were found asymptomatic in yesterday's DOH daily tests here. The percentage is usually no more than 10 or 11%. Understandable as these people won't normally be tested. The expert media docs say that even when people are vaccinated and reach the time when they are well protected against illness they might still transmit the virus, at least to some extent. Spreading well before illness is a major feature of SARS viruses. One which makes them much more dangerous. They will study this aspect more as vaccinations roll out world wide. But for now they are cautioning those vaccinated as it might be that some will feel like relaxing on social distancing and other precautions after getting vaccinated. If true and added to any effects of new variants on increased transmission it will be another factor dragging out this pandemic further in time.
You can follow the link in the summary article above if you want more detail on the study.
Top areas:
Cebu City high number again.
Deaths 94 with 15 RDs.
As recoveries were only 18 the number critical shows another large fall, 47, to 1,154.
The deaths look worse than they are as many announced recently were wrongly tagged in the past as recoveries. A long running data issue the DOH seem not to be able to rectify.
More detail on January 25 cases:
Plus Bicol 19
Pasay 12, Paranaque 10
NCR at 21% of total cases. Ten of its cities in the top 20.
The top 5 cities all the major ones from around the nation.
Cebu City and province having another wave after the first in July, when the generals were sent in to impose strict measures. Are they going to have to return?
More difficult as provincial areas of the island increasing more this time, if you compare this chart for the city with that posted for the province in my post yesterday.
Cebu City
Vaccine news:
https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/01/26/...ty-sectors-doh
Now the many in soldiers families won't queue jump. But the priority list here only for just over a fifth of the population. If you look at the footnote to the priority chart put up on Jan 24 other deserving groups are listed.......those with co-morbidities, children, pregnant women. So are they going to be done before them? Also, the list has greatly expanded as families of health workers are now included! A good example of something commonly seen here. Policy on sensitive matters being made up on the hoof, without due consideration and ending up in a mess,
A bum deal?
https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/01/26/...avirus-vaccine
For the reason given here or maybe another the country's leader won't be promoting vaccination to a sceptical public by filmed example.
The Philippines vaccine program not just late but already looking badly organised. The onus seems to be being placed on LGUs to get enough vaccines for themselves Which many are doing, especially in the NCR.. But what about other places around the country where the infections have risen recently?
https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6976
A study of studies concludes that at least one third of covid infections are asymptomatic. I recall estimates higher than that put out in the US last year. As an example 8% were found asymptomatic in yesterday's DOH daily tests here. The percentage is usually no more than 10 or 11%. Understandable as these people won't normally be tested. The expert media docs say that even when people are vaccinated and reach the time when they are well protected against illness they might still transmit the virus, at least to some extent. Spreading well before illness is a major feature of SARS viruses. One which makes them much more dangerous. They will study this aspect more as vaccinations roll out world wide. But for now they are cautioning those vaccinated as it might be that some will feel like relaxing on social distancing and other precautions after getting vaccinated. If true and added to any effects of new variants on increased transmission it will be another factor dragging out this pandemic further in time.
You can follow the link in the summary article above if you want more detail on the study.
Jan 27th 2021, 5:14 pm
#630
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Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 2,353
Re: NCR llockdown
Nearly doubled cases yesterday on the day before...2,245. Only 4 labs not reporting. Test backlog of over 800 included. Positivity at 5.5%. Based on 25.8k tests. Tests coming along 24.3k. Now the cases are more provincial we can expect results day to day to be more variable. Testing and tracing more difficult in many of the areas showing increases in the N Luzon and Mindanao.
Top 5 areas:
Four out of 5 are cities.
Deaths 95, including 19 RDs.
Case fatality at 2.02%.
Critical at 1,101...down 53 on the day before.
Will start showing those also severe to track this aspect better:
In a severe condition 777.
More detail on Jan 26 cases:
Other Mindanao 19.
NCR 15%, Region 4A 14%
As the NCR seems to be losing its dominance will also report its figures with 4A So 29% for the expanded epicenter.
Only eight NCR cities in top 20, most low in table.
Cebu dominating provincial cases.
https://www.rappler.com/nation/duter...edical-schools
At last a small concession on face to face classes. If these people cannot be safe who can?
Regarding schooling a study of some Wisconsin schools by the CDC:
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...unity-transmi/
We await here what will happen with schools. One could understand the reluctance if the UK variant was widespread or would soon be....but in contrast with European countries and the US, flight bans, the limited attraction of coming here plus very restricted domestic travel makes that unlikely.
https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/01/27/...vid-19-variant
The single face shield is enough...for now!. Rather than rule it out she knows there is an element here making the decisions who could easily try to impose double face shields on top of masks somewhere on the public if it raises protection only from 99.5 to 99.6%. ignoring factors like comfort, cost, visibility.
PCR tests are a bit painful...so maybe some people would prefer this?
https://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/01...-19-infections
Top 5 areas:
Four out of 5 are cities.
Deaths 95, including 19 RDs.
Case fatality at 2.02%.
Critical at 1,101...down 53 on the day before.
Will start showing those also severe to track this aspect better:
In a severe condition 777.
More detail on Jan 26 cases:
Other Mindanao 19.
NCR 15%, Region 4A 14%
As the NCR seems to be losing its dominance will also report its figures with 4A So 29% for the expanded epicenter.
Only eight NCR cities in top 20, most low in table.
Cebu dominating provincial cases.
https://www.rappler.com/nation/duter...edical-schools
At last a small concession on face to face classes. If these people cannot be safe who can?
Regarding schooling a study of some Wisconsin schools by the CDC:
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...unity-transmi/
We await here what will happen with schools. One could understand the reluctance if the UK variant was widespread or would soon be....but in contrast with European countries and the US, flight bans, the limited attraction of coming here plus very restricted domestic travel makes that unlikely.
https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/01/27/...vid-19-variant
The single face shield is enough...for now!. Rather than rule it out she knows there is an element here making the decisions who could easily try to impose double face shields on top of masks somewhere on the public if it raises protection only from 99.5 to 99.6%. ignoring factors like comfort, cost, visibility.
PCR tests are a bit painful...so maybe some people would prefer this?
https://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/01...-19-infections