Raffin

Correct.
UK arrivals didn't have to stay for 14days in the hotel, as you said you believed in the first quote.
Complete the 14 days at home? Are the LGUs really doing that? Even if you go to some remote area of the country?

Anyway, sorry that this mutation panic has caused you a lot of inconvenience for a trip you must have been both looking forward to

Gazza-d

A sister in law (OFW) had about 4 days in a Manila hotel then 10 day in another hotel in the provincial capital. (14 day). She then did a further 14 days in the barangay. Yes it's normal to do the rest of the days in your home. What has changed is UK residents now need to do the full 14 days in the quarantine hotel.
Our problem is that we live in the Philippines and had to return to the UK for my fathers funeral, July. Two weeks after we got to the UK the Philippines banned foreign spouses entering until recently and now again banned entry just before our return.

Raffin

One thing to be "quarantined" in some Manila hotel for a few days the allowed to go to the province to maybe stay somewhere to complete. Although PAL says you can go home. I think like many things here, especially in these times, it all depends on the LGU.
Another for Brits to be sent to New Clark City for 14 days.

Raffin

On Xmas eve the DOH reports another 1,776 cases. Nine labs not reporting the 1,412 cases positive out of 22.7k tested. Positivity at a higher 6.2% with 80% of cases reported recent.
Number of new cases the highest since December 18.
Tests in process at a higher 30.7k.

Top locations were:



Deaths at 7.
Critical at 1,367, down 7.


Plus other Mindanao 23, MIMAROPA 10 and Bicol 9.
All case numbers recent.





QC case numbers recently increasing.


City of Manila's increasing less.



City of Manila numbers increasing just a little.





Nearly all NCR cities featuring.


Rizal cases continue to increase fast..

Internationally, the Philippines is about to be overtaken by Pakistan.


Switzerland may soon do the same if case numbers continue at the same level.

Raffin

For Xmas day another 1,885 cases, but a higher 15 labs id not submit. Testing found 846 cases from only 17.4k tests on individuals, that's a positivity of 4.9%. Recent percentage is only 45. So a backlog building up. Tests in process down at 25.8k.

Cases from:


Bulacan chart:



Deaths at 7 with critical at 1,360, down 7.

More detail on Xmas eve cases:


Other Mindanao 31, MIMAROPA 21, Bicol 20.
Recent cases for NCR about 410, for 4A about 200.






Rizal continues with high numbers. Benguet showing some Baguio vacation effect?

Top 20 locations:


Twelve NCR cities. Davao City high number. Otherwise a wide range of places featuring.


Davao City was on a decline...

What we see now mostly the result of Xmas preparation activity. The effect of Xmas socialization will show in January.

Raffin

Cases announced yesterday were another 1,406 from only 680 found. Eight labs did not report. Thus only 48% recent. Positivity was at 6.6% from only 10.4k tests. Tests coming along at 25.8k.
Backlogs continue.

Top locations:


Bulacan now top. Calabarzon three out of five places.

Deaths at 5 with 1 RD,
Twenty six more critical at 1,386.

Detail on December 25 locations:


Plus CAR 26, other Mindanao 29, Bicol 16 and MIMAROPA 13.
Adjusting for backlog NCR only about 250 recent. Region 4A only about 120.


Eastern Visayas has had two spikes over the last few months. Now a third much higher one.







NCR cities heavily featuring in the top half. In bottom half three Leyte locations and two in Bulacan.


Philippines doing badly with deaths and cases per head of population. But as of today down to 29th in the world.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...-strain/story/

This was the big news on the UK virus variant! I don't think the Philippines has the ability to quickly test for it and if so it seems likely it's already here.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/12/27/...el-restriction

Really? If you have a ban to prevent the mutation coming in then why exempt some travellers from the UK based on their nationality?

Seems to me that judging by the speed the variant spread in the UK it will soon spread all over the world. Countries like the Philippines already short on funds for a vaccine program to achieve herd immunity will just have to spend more to adjust to the higher immunity level required if, as suspected, the variant does spread much more easily..

Gazza-d

Although the N501Y strain appears to spread more rapidly its the South African variant that has the scientists here in the UK more concerned.

Raffin

Only 883 positives announced today. A low 11.5k tests were done by Xmas day with 756 (86%) recent, a positive rate of 6.6%. A higher number of labs, 15, did not report. A low number of tests, only 12.8k in process. The effect of Xmas.

Locations:




Rizal Province

Deaths at 42 with 10 of them RDs.
Critical 1,370, up 10.
Mass recoveries 7.6k.
Active now 22.1k, Up by 400 on the previous Sunday figure.

More detail on December 26 cases:


Plus MIMAROPA 14, other Mindanao 17
NCR recent down to about 190. 4A recent about 160.




Should be December 26.


List dominated by NCR cities and Rizal conurbations..
Carigara in Leyte new entry.

For the last week cases are up by over 1,300.... the result of an R number in the epicenter of the NCR estimated at 1.18 on December 20.

Raffin

Low case numbers again due to the festive season. This will be the case for many more days and complicates assessment of the progress of the outbreak.
Yesterday 766 cases, 6 labs did not report. Labs have also been closed on a few days lately. Cases were from 601 positives out of 9.3k tests, a rate of 6.4%.
Tests coming along at 13.3k.

Top 5 locations:


Deaths at 15 with 1 RD.
Critical at 1,365, down 5.

Detail on December 27:


Plus other Mindanao 41, Bicol 13.

NCR and Calabarzon together 53% of all cases.






Small numbers leading to a greater mix than usual.
Eight NCR cities.
Three from Benguet in top 10.

Quarantine areas continue as they are until January 31.
After a number of days we still don't know what variant of covid-19 the one recent positive recent UK arrival had!

Raffin

More of the same depressed numbers yesterday. Only 886 with 793 recent out of 13.5k tested. Positivity 5.8%. Just 9.9k tests coming along.
Nine labs did not report, but that does not include an unannounced number which are closed.

Top locations:


Deaths at 38 with 8 of them RDs.
The fatality rate at 1.94% or 1.95%, DOH or here an international source:


The Philippines in the company of some African, S American countries and surprisingly Brunei.
Sweden, with one of the worst European records, not far away.

Critical at 1,378, up 13.

More detail on December 28:


Other Mindanao 27





Davao City led. The previous day second, Leading today.
Three Benguet locations.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/12/29/...gong-protocols

Google can translate this, but it says returning OFWs will go to Clark for 14 days on return. Presumably they are tested early. If positive they would be kept there while a genome process taking many days is done. If negative they are kept at Clark for the remainder of the time, presumably in case they are false negative. For the great majority, if not all, who will be in the latter category I think harsh treatment as many will be having their first vacation for 2 years. At least allow them to finish in their Province.
Then outright bans up to mid January on 20 other countries. That number must soon greatly increase as more cases of the "UK variant" are announced when testing gets going again after the Xmas holidays internationally. This kneejerk reaction coming from the very top. The health secretary is unsure of it. A face to face school experiment has been called off by the President because of the appearance of the UK variant.

Gazza-d

The Oxford Astra Zenica vaccine has just this morning been approved here in the UK. There has been the suggestion that they go with the first jab and delay the second so they can cover twice as many people. The booster is now to be given after 12 weeks. So UK roll your sleeves up Monday morning.

Raffin

Cases announced yesterday back up to over 1,000 at 1,014. Seven labs not reporting. The numbers positive were 1,233 out of 18.3k tests. Two hundred plus more than announced for some reason. So positivity at 6.8%., the highest rate for many days. Tests coming along only 16.2k.

Top 5 locations outside the NCR were:

QC 67, Benguet 57, Makati 48,, Bulacan 44 and Laguna 40.

Deaths at a high 68 with 21 of them RDs. The latter seem not to be on any downward trend since the DOH announced a validation check 6 months ago. So it seems that the miss classification of recoveries is not being fixed. Just discovered and reported.

Critical patients down by 22 at 1,356.

Data on locations of December 29 cases not available today.

Not worth showing any charts until testing gets back to normal.

A "UK variant" case found in Colorado, USA with no travel history. I'm sure there are some cases already here too. At first the US was going to be added to the list of 20 banned countries, now a re-think at the top here. Soon nearly all countries that have genome sequencing ability will find cases and travel from most advanced countries of the world to the Philippines may come to a halt. If countries ban then it will encourage other countries not to look for or announce the discovery of virus variants

Raffin

Final day of the year announcements are a concerning 1,541 new cases and a 6.6% positivity rate out of only 17k tests. While only 3 labs did not report an undisclosed number are shut and cases are obviously brewing in the Xmas festivities. Good that there are 25k tests coming along.

Top locations outside NCR:


Deaths at 14 with 4 RDs.
Critical are 1,376, up 20 on the day before.

More detail for December 29 and December 30 cases:





Top 3 regions the same for both days.


NCR for 29th.


NCR for 30th.
Similar picture for both days.




Benguet and Bulacan high up on both days.
Four of the Calabarzon provinces in top 10 for both days.


Top 20 cities for December 29.


...for December 30.

NCR cities take up about half the places on both days and dominate the top positions except for Davao City and Baguio.
Three Benguet locations featured on December 30.


With 474k cases at year end you can see that the above OCTA forecast chart from the end of August at mean 580k was well over. Later their forecast went down to 480k.
Looks quite good but testing has not been maintained at a level consistent with WHO guidelines where an outbreak is under control with a consistent run of positivity under 5%.
Whether that was due to the virus cases rising in some provincial areas, budgetary constraints, chaotic organization or a mentality to just wait for a vaccine, we cannot easily tell.
What we can be certain about that cases will rise significantly in January due the Xmas holidays and also perhaps from cooler weather, especially in elevated areas.

Deaths are another story. The country with a case fatality rate not far below the world average although it has a very young population.

Last, for the UK 50k cases announced on the 30th and nearly 56k on the 31st. Quite alarming figures. How much of that rise is due to the new variant and how much to lax behaviour? If Britain's virus export gets a hold in other countries who also are not acting responsibly then you feel there may be similar dramatic rises. Those countries will need to follow Britain and get vaccine quickly into the general population. Although difficult to do it, priorities may need to be looked at again as some groups further down the priority list do not have the potential to spread the virus so much.

It can be argued that we need to do more on pushing the message on safe behaviour. I just wonder about that ever getting through enough n many N American and European countries.
Here it seems to me living conditions are mainly responsible rather than lax behaviour and so there could be more problems in many of the areas already with large outbreaks if the new variant gets a hold. I agree with another contributor on another thread that the Philippines is not able to do much with vaccines this year.

Gazza-d

Although the UK is getting the blame for this new variant the jury is still out and it could be a case of shooting the messenger. The UK is a world leader in genomic sequencing so were the first to identifying it, they genomic sequence something like 10% of all tests. The scientists have now settled for it being about 50-55% more transmissible and a hint that it's slightly less virulent. One big concern is that it seems to effect the under 20s more than the old virus and is becoming the dominant strain. Only time will tell but I wouldn't be surprised if is hasn't already spread widely before anyone started looking for it. Apparently UK is constantly monitoring for mutations of which there have already been thousands, just this one has worked out for the virus.

Raffin

Announced on NYD were another 1,765 cases, 8 labs not reporting. Positivity edged up again with 769 positive out of only 10.7k tests done. Just 21.8k are in process.
Top locations:



Deaths 4, critical 1,361, down 15.

Detail on December 31:


Plus other Mindanao 37, Bicol 17, E Visayas 14




Paranaque unusually high.


Four out of the 5 Calabarzon provinces.




NCR cities 13 out of the top 20.


Improvement clearly shown nationally in last four months of 2020.

But...


..the latest data from QC show an uptick.


... Rizal the same.

Both are indicative of a general increase in the wider epicenter of the NCR plus Calabarzon at the end of 2020.
Outbreak also clearly not under control in Davao, Central Luzon and some areas of the north, especially Baguio.