Covid 19
#331
Re: Covid 19
Most people cheering for lockdowns tend to be
1) Financially self sufficient or will not be losing their jobs
2) Assuming every single country will become like North Italy and Wuhan
Korea and Singapore and Japan all somehow handled cases without shutting down the economy, but they are ignored the by the "shut the economy" crowd
And then you got all these people on social media praising the clear skies and calling for lockdowns to be made permanent so we can all stay at home, sing in our balconies, and admire the clear blue skies (and carry a piece of paper whenever leaving home)
If a country faces a situation like Italy or Wuhan (which very few are, maybe France and Spain, and certainly not the US outside of NYC), then lockdowns work.
Otherwise, what you need is to stop gatherings (parties, sports, schools), and to strictly trace contacts of positive people and quarantine them
The reason so many places locked down is not because people walking outside is lethal, as so many stayhomers are pretending, its because a subset of the population cannot be trusted to not socialize in crowded places if allowed to do so
1) Financially self sufficient or will not be losing their jobs
2) Assuming every single country will become like North Italy and Wuhan
Korea and Singapore and Japan all somehow handled cases without shutting down the economy, but they are ignored the by the "shut the economy" crowd
And then you got all these people on social media praising the clear skies and calling for lockdowns to be made permanent so we can all stay at home, sing in our balconies, and admire the clear blue skies (and carry a piece of paper whenever leaving home)
If a country faces a situation like Italy or Wuhan (which very few are, maybe France and Spain, and certainly not the US outside of NYC), then lockdowns work.
Otherwise, what you need is to stop gatherings (parties, sports, schools), and to strictly trace contacts of positive people and quarantine them
The reason so many places locked down is not because people walking outside is lethal, as so many stayhomers are pretending, its because a subset of the population cannot be trusted to not socialize in crowded places if allowed to do so
#332
Just Joined
Joined: Jan 2020
Posts: 12
Re: Covid 19
Just been recalled to the UK.
Assuming I am not getting punted off site, which who knows how this will go, how will this affect my tax situation?
I am non-resident status and been here 7 weeks now, but anticipating 5-6-7-8 weeks at home. I anticipate being here until winter 2021.
Assuming I am not getting punted off site, which who knows how this will go, how will this affect my tax situation?
I am non-resident status and been here 7 weeks now, but anticipating 5-6-7-8 weeks at home. I anticipate being here until winter 2021.
Last edited by thebadger; Mar 23rd 2020 at 11:09 am.
#333
Re: Covid 19
I built a model that forecasts which countries are more likely to be like Italy or Wuhan. Nothing particularly sophisticated, just a blend of social characteristics, urbanisation levels and demographics. Top of the list include Spain, France, UK and the US. The GCC actually looks OK, thanks to a combination of very young populations and higher levels of government ability/willingness to impose top-down measures.
#334
Re: Covid 19
Just been recalled to the UK.
Assuming I am not getting punted off site, which who knows how this will go, how will this affect my tax situation?
I am non-resident status and been here 7 weeks now, but anticipating 5-6-7-8 weeks at home. I anticipate being here until winter 2021.
Assuming I am not getting punted off site, which who knows how this will go, how will this affect my tax situation?
I am non-resident status and been here 7 weeks now, but anticipating 5-6-7-8 weeks at home. I anticipate being here until winter 2021.
Originally Posted by MyAccountant
For clients, their families and their colleagues who are not resident in the UK, a change in their travel plans could have an adverse tax effect. It could mean that the number of days spent in the UK at midnight or the number of days spent working in the UK for 3 hours or more may breach the number of days present or the number of workdays allowed under the Statutory Residence Test (SRT). If that happens the advantageous status of being not resident in the UK for tax purposes could be lost for 2019/20 and possibly for prior and subsequent UK tax years. More UK workdays could also increase a UK tax liability even if the SRT day limits are not breached.
For individuals who left the UK in 2019/20 or who are already not resident in the UK, please note that there is no relaxation in the SRT rules at present if you spend more non-work days or more work days in the UK as a result of a COVID-19 issue. Extra days spent in the UK at midnight would not qualify as exceptional circumstances. If not resident in the UK and if you are affected by a COVID-19 travel issue, consider avoiding extra time in the UK. Also consider avoiding carrying out work for 3 hours or more in a day in the UK.I have attached the HMRC Guidance RDR3 which covers the SRT rules. Exceptional circumstances are covered from page 96. HMRC refer to FCO advice on page 100. The UK Government travel advice and COVID-19 updates are here https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice and the FCO travel advice link is on each country’s page. Para B17 on page 100 of RDR3 states that it is only when the FCO advice is ‘avoid all travel to the region’ that the exceptional circumstances test is met. Being under enforced quarantine in the UK is not directly addressed in RDR3, and guidance may or may not be issued on this later.
For individuals who left the UK in 2019/20 or who are already not resident in the UK, please note that there is no relaxation in the SRT rules at present if you spend more non-work days or more work days in the UK as a result of a COVID-19 issue. Extra days spent in the UK at midnight would not qualify as exceptional circumstances. If not resident in the UK and if you are affected by a COVID-19 travel issue, consider avoiding extra time in the UK. Also consider avoiding carrying out work for 3 hours or more in a day in the UK.I have attached the HMRC Guidance RDR3 which covers the SRT rules. Exceptional circumstances are covered from page 96. HMRC refer to FCO advice on page 100. The UK Government travel advice and COVID-19 updates are here https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice and the FCO travel advice link is on each country’s page. Para B17 on page 100 of RDR3 states that it is only when the FCO advice is ‘avoid all travel to the region’ that the exceptional circumstances test is met. Being under enforced quarantine in the UK is not directly addressed in RDR3, and guidance may or may not be issued on this later.
#335
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 2,900
Re: Covid 19
What's most fun is scanning facebook and seeing all the guff about kids being at home and studying.
I've never known a group of humans to be such walking, talking contradictions as parents are. Literally non stop moaning about how shit kids are and how they're such little ***** to survive alongside.......yet when you laugh or join in and agree that they're kids are pure scum?
Oh god, you get the full berries wrath of how wonderful kids are, with a side order or doubt and slathered in deceit-syrup.
I've never known a group of humans to be such walking, talking contradictions as parents are. Literally non stop moaning about how shit kids are and how they're such little ***** to survive alongside.......yet when you laugh or join in and agree that they're kids are pure scum?
Oh god, you get the full berries wrath of how wonderful kids are, with a side order or doubt and slathered in deceit-syrup.
#337
Forum Regular
Joined: May 2013
Posts: 278
Re: Covid 19
You need to think it through a bit more I'm afraid. Without severe containment, you will get almost half of the population sick at one time: ALL the expert epidemiological models predict at least this - some indicate much higher levels and most of the assumptions used have proven to be conservative e.g. average number of people infected by any given carrier now looks to be more than six where most models assume between two and three. A large number of these, including younger people, will be severely ill even if they don't die. With not enough people to perform essential work, not only will you no longer have a functioning economy, you won't have a functioning society (no power, no food, no police, no hospitals....).
That's why every conceivable measure has to be taken to delay the spread and maintain infections at a (barely) manageable level, which is estimated at 20% increase in cases per day, which is just about where we are in most countries now. And that's just to keep par with what has happened in Italy...
That's why every conceivable measure has to be taken to delay the spread and maintain infections at a (barely) manageable level, which is estimated at 20% increase in cases per day, which is just about where we are in most countries now. And that's just to keep par with what has happened in Italy...
Last edited by FriendlyExpat; Mar 23rd 2020 at 5:28 pm.
#338
Forum Regular
Joined: May 2013
Posts: 278
Re: Covid 19
A US university has surveyed infectious disease specialists to see what they think about the likely outcomes. The key takeaway – there is huge uncertainty and specialists tend to think the final death toll will be of a similar magnitude to a bad flu season (perhaps 1/5th as bad, or perhaps 10 times as bad).
Key quote: "Experts believe COVID-19 will be responsible for around 195,000 deaths (approximate 80% uncertainty interval: 19,000-1,200,000) in the US by the end of 2020. As a comparison, a typical influenza season is estimated by the CDC to cause between 11,000 and 95,000 deaths in a typical influenza season."
If anyone has a better source I'd love to read it and please do link to it or explain why this is wrong, but it looks to me like the credible product of some serious minds. I am now even more convinced the shutdowns are a HUGE overreaction.
Original article (you have to download the PDF to read): https://works.bepress.com/mcandrew/2/
Digested summary of the article: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...to-get-either/
Key quote: "Experts believe COVID-19 will be responsible for around 195,000 deaths (approximate 80% uncertainty interval: 19,000-1,200,000) in the US by the end of 2020. As a comparison, a typical influenza season is estimated by the CDC to cause between 11,000 and 95,000 deaths in a typical influenza season."
If anyone has a better source I'd love to read it and please do link to it or explain why this is wrong, but it looks to me like the credible product of some serious minds. I am now even more convinced the shutdowns are a HUGE overreaction.
Original article (you have to download the PDF to read): https://works.bepress.com/mcandrew/2/
Digested summary of the article: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...to-get-either/
Last edited by FriendlyExpat; Mar 23rd 2020 at 6:09 pm.
#339
Re: Covid 19
What you're perhaps overlooking is (i) the vast chasm of uncertainty in the modelling (current predictions could be out by orders of magnitude either way) and (ii) the Imperial College modelling looks at numbers of Covid-19 deaths but not overall deaths / other harms. I'm not scared of the virus, but I am scared of what is being done to stop the virus.
If you don't think any of these measures are worth it, what do you suggest?
#341
Re: Covid 19
I built a model that forecasts which countries are more likely to be like Italy or Wuhan. Nothing particularly sophisticated, just a blend of social characteristics, urbanisation levels and demographics. Top of the list include Spain, France, UK and the US. The GCC actually looks OK, thanks to a combination of very young populations and higher levels of government ability/willingness to impose top-down measures.
#342
Forum Regular
Joined: May 2013
Posts: 278
Re: Covid 19
So just curious, but what would you do differently to pretty much every country in the world affected right now. By this I mean the social distancing, travel bans, WFH, curfew, nightlife closures, shop closures etc. All the measures that most places that have a problem have introduced, or are introducing to varying degrees.
If you don't think any of these measures are worth it, what do you suggest?
If you don't think any of these measures are worth it, what do you suggest?
#344
Account Closed
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 0
Re: Covid 19
I don't like the idea of being banned from this or that or not being able to fly if I want to, but in reality, it's a few weeks. It's not the end of the world, if we all just calm down and stop, we will be OK. Butthurt about 'police states' and things like that are laughable. If you're 65 and have to stay home / locked down for an entire month, it's 0.1% of your life 'locked down'. If an adult can't recognise this minor inconvenience and cost is to keep themselves and other people safer from disease, then there's very little hope left for the world.
#345
Re: Covid 19
that’s proper tin foil face mask stuff... which I love. Everyone loves a spreadsheet and you can take extra comfort in the fact that yours is just as accurate and thought out as the ones the governments around the world are using to make their policy decisions on covid.
a) How infectious is it, with no intervention?
b) Which groups of people are most at risk of being hospitalised?
c) What intervention can be put in place to reduce the level of infection?
The answer for a) is "very", the answer to b) is "old people" and the answer to c) (until they develop a vaccine) seems to be "it depends on how willing governments and individuals are to reduce social contact". With that premise, the impact on a country is going to boil down to a combination of demographics, bottom-up social/civic responsibility and top-down degree of authoritarianism.
Last edited by csdf; Mar 24th 2020 at 5:11 am.