Brexit. Why is often thought that the UK is in a weak bargaining position? Is it really?

In 2016, the UK contribution to the EU budget was 13.45% https://www.statista.com/statistics/...contributions/. At a time when so many problems are facing the EU and where so many of the members are in net receipt of funds, how do you think the rest of the EU, both contributors and beneficiaries would view a clean break should the shutters come down?

The EU talks a good talk, but removing 13.45% from the EU budget at a stroke would be catastrophic, I mean who'll put up with poorer quality wine at all those conferences. When it looks like the s**t is about to hit the fan, someone will turn it off. It's happened before but once the clock stops, this could be a very long negotiation indeed. No wonder they're keen to start talks, they must be realising that putting the boot in should be the last thing they should be doing.

The UK has always been in a good negotiating position, the problem now is the DUP, they have the potential to shoot the UKnegotiators in the foot. The other political parties are looking for an opportunity to grab power and will be vocal during the negotiations, even if the outcome of the other parties is a negative one, they will do whatever possible to grab power, then blame the Tory party of doing a terrible job....even if the PM has had both hands tied behind her back. (Note to other parties, we elected you to do the best for this country and its people, irrespective of the unfavourable position you find yourselves)

I have been a VW owner for all my driving life, if Germany spoils any potential decent deal, I won't buy German again.

When the French continued to test nuclear weapons in the late 80's and early 90's in the pacific, I swore that I'd never drink French wine or have any French product again, best thing I ever did, I found New Zealand and Chilian wines, English soft cheeses and holidays in Spain, Portugal and Germany. I gained significantly from it.

It is important to make a stand when it matters, consumers can do this to great effect.

The UK is in an extremely weak bargaining position for numerous reasons, which is why May called the General Election in the first place, because the EC decided that they wanted to negotiate the FTA after the Brexit deal so the election would have fallen around the start of the FTA negotiations.

Saying the UK contributes a lot to the EU budget - well the idea for a hard Brexit is not to contribute to it, so how does that strengthen the bargaining position, it substantially weakens it in fact.

The EU is bound by the Lisbon Treaty and what the UK really wants apparently is to stop freedom of movement, so that once again means the UK has no choice but to go for a hard Brexit.

And now the Govt. is in a shambles so I seriously wonder whether stopping freedom of movement is now possible.

The EU has every incentive to not give an inch because they don't want other members to leave and if the talks fall apart and the UK leaves without any free trade deal, that harms the UK more than the EU because the UK has to import food and so on, so they have to allow for various duty exemptions even if the EU doesn't want to reciprocate.

This whole idea that the UK has a trade deficit so the EU will have to cave has always been absurd. Never understood it, if you've got a trade deficit that means you're dependent on EU goods so how does that strengthen your position? Are you going to stop importing food and let people starve? If you import it from elsewhere, obviously the costs are higher, so not a negotiating advantage even slightly.

And just on a basic level, the UK Govt. has zero experience with doing trade negotiations in the last 40 years whereas the EU has masses of experience. I just cracked up laughing when they wheeled out the British High Commissioner last June to say the UK would want to negotiate a free trade agreement with Canada, he looked like Father Ted just woken up from a snooze.

The EU has armies of bureaucrats backed up with 27 countries worth of bureaucrats, whereas the UK has hired some of the people who negotiated CETA. I'm sure the EC is quaking in its boots.

The whole idea of Brexit is built on this myth that somehow the British Govt. is more competent and effective and has more experience than the EU, so the UK will be better off outside of the EU because it will have less restraints. It's complete nonsense, the UK is less competent, less effective and has next to no experience. The British Empire died in the 1950s. The bureaucrats at the FCO are wetting themselves.

Much that you have to say is well founded and true, especially comments surrounding the competence of the british civil service, but many of the arguments are taken too far in one direction to support your main thesis.

The grease that keeps the EU gravy train rolling is cash and the UK should not acceed to the EU demand to settle future contributions before negotiating UK issues.. but will they?

I expect, as many also expect, that the UK will have to concede a limited freedom of movement for EU citizens.

The EU farming industry is highly visible and I expect tarriff free movement of agricultural products to be agreed quickly because it in the interests of both parties. EU agricultural subsidies would be unable to make up any fall in incomes since EU budgets will fall and for this reason alone I don't expect food supply to be an issue.

But.. and it's a big but.. the capacity of the UK civil service to behave in any manner that approaches anything like proficiency is highly doubtful. Like you, I have no confidence in any Sir Humphrey to be able to understand and manage both the arguments and the manpower he has at his disposal.

It's not going to matter imv because the UK is either going to simply go to being an EEA state or go back to EFTA and have a bunch of bilateral agreements that effectively make it an EEA state, like Switzerland. So the UK will still contribute to the European budget (maybe a teeny bit less because they aren't in the EU). And this whole idea of an exit bill will disappear in a puff of bureaucracy.

I wouldn't be surprised if the UK says they're going to go to being an EEA state as an "interim" measure so they can get Brexit off the table and then the negotiations will drag on for years behind closed doors and no-one will care anymore except a few bankers because Brexit will technically have been accomplished.

Even Nigel Farage was saying the other day that he thinks the UK will end up as an EEA state and still contribute to the European budget.

At this point it's just a total mess and they want to get rid of the problem as rapidly as possible.

It's so long ago that I can't find my post made in the run-up to the referendum last year, but that is precisely what I predicted before all this nonsense started in earnest.

Good phrasing !

I read an article awhile back that said if the UK got a similar deal to Norway for access to the single market, then we'd effectively pay pretty much the same as we did before, potentially have free movement (although I'm not sure how those that voted for brexit would accept that) whilst also losing our voting rights...


So we'd have achieved nothing, paid a lot for it and lost all power...


Go Brexit!


I voted remain by the way... It amuses me to see the realities of brexit slapping people in the face.

One of our European neighbours has a good word for that!

vrolijkheid?

Don't know that one. Was thinking...schadenfreude.

Yes...I used google translate to see what it was in other languages and found it in Dutch.

...damn!

Amster damn

I think the ideal when it was voted for was to be an EEA state to try and have some sort of half way house.

My understanding though was that the EU/Other member states aren't going to allow Britain to have that status as they have maintained from the day of the vote result.

It's odd, perceived by many as misguided arrogance, that so many people think Britain can decide what relationship it has.

I saw Farage on election night and he actually said he could see another referendum coming next year. It better not as they won't have anything to write on their red bus this time.