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June 8th poll

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Old Jun 9th 2017 | 9:34 am
  #136  
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Default Re: June 8th poll

Will this new coalition make Britain great again ?
 
Old Jun 9th 2017 | 10:04 am
  #137  
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Default Re: June 8th poll

Originally Posted by JamesM
That is my guesstimate.
Basically we keep free trade but also accept free movement.
We no longer partake in the EU parliament or it's affairs. Their laws are not our laws although I suspect as is the case with most things we'd have to adapt their laws to do business with them so we'd take on laws we now have no say in.
You may know a lot more about the law aspect than I given your profession.
I'm not so sure. There's a sizable rebel group in the conservative party that could try to stiffen any agreement... but they may achieve a more flacid arrangement by getting into bed with the labour party et al.
 
Old Jun 9th 2017 | 10:52 am
  #138  
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Default Re: June 8th poll

Originally Posted by JamesM
This new May "government" won't last till Christmas.
In order to call an election they have to get the consent of the opposition (Fixed Election Act), and if Labour's got any sense they'll realize that people are sick of elections so they won't let the Tories call one. And obviously the Tories are only going to call one if it's to their advantage, so why would Labour consent?

Brexit, if it happens, will take years and years.
That was always the case. Imx the EU takes close to two years to make minor changes to a Directive, so Brexit will take ages. I don't think May really believed she would get a thumping majority, it was more about having more time after the European Council decided to negotiate the FTA after the Brexit negotiations.

What was always going to happen imo is that the UK will end up in some sort of quasi-EEA relationship with the EU, similar to Switzerland and they'll have to agree some sort of hard quota on permanent immigration from the EU, because Switzerland wants that too.

They won't want to amend the Lisbon Treaty but given the choice between agreeing to an immigration quota and endless years of uncertainty, I think they'll cave in eventually. It'll probably be a fairly high quota like 150,000 in order to get agreement but it just solves the whole thing quickly and fairly painlessly and ticks the two main boxes - no longer in the EU, yes, controls on immigration, yes.

I think the dimension that people keep missing here is the Swiss factor and also that the EU wants to get other countries to join the EU and they all want immigration quotas, I think Albania already is in the EEA and has an immigration quota.

So they've got to figure out a mechanism for doing it, Brexit or no.

The cost to the UK though is no longer being part of the EU Govt. while still being subject to the ECJ and still having to contribute to the EU budget. Which is far from painless and frankly the EU wins overall, which is why they'll be able to sell it to the public.
 
Old Jun 9th 2017 | 11:14 am
  #139  
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Default Re: June 8th poll

Originally Posted by JamesM
That is my guesstimate.

Basically we keep free trade but also accept free movement.

We no longer partake in the EU parliament or it's affairs. Their laws are not our laws although I suspect as is the case with most things we'd have to adapt their laws to do business with them so we'd take on laws we now have no say in.

You may know a lot more about the law aspect than I given your profession.
Well, the law aspect will be dealt with by whatever the parties agree to. But, if soft Brexit is basically being in the EU without having a say about how the laws are made, how can anyone seriously suggest that and state that that is what was voted for in the referendum with any sense of credibility?
 
Old Jun 9th 2017 | 11:34 am
  #140  
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Default Re: June 8th poll

Originally Posted by Almost Canadian
Well, the law aspect will be dealt with by whatever the parties agree to. But, if soft Brexit is basically being in the EU without having a say about how the laws are made, how can anyone seriously suggest that and state that that is what was voted for in the referendum with any sense of credibility?
Oh I think you can, because even David Davis said the general election would decide how Brexit would go - well how else do you interpret it other than a vote for a soft Brexit?

The whole thing revolves around immigration as far as I can see, if the EU is willing to concede to a quota then the UK can give lots of ground on everything else and still save face.
 
Old Jun 9th 2017 | 11:53 am
  #141  
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Default Re: June 8th poll

Originally Posted by Steve_
Oh I think you can, because even David Davis said the general election would decide how Brexit would go - well how else do you interpret it other than a vote for a soft Brexit?

The whole thing revolves around immigration as far as I can see, if the EU is willing to concede to a quota then the UK can give lots of ground on everything else and still save face.
Prior to the referendum, which of the campaigns ever said, "Brexit means we will remain in the EU but will no longer have a say in how the laws are made?"

I get that, post referendum result, the remainers then attempted to suggest that leaving the EU didn't actually mean leaving the EU.
 
Old Jun 9th 2017 | 12:48 pm
  #142  
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Default Re: June 8th poll

Originally Posted by magnumpi
Will this new coalition make Britain great again ?
In return for their support the DUP are demanding a wall on their border and that the Republic of Ireland pays for it.
 
Old Jun 9th 2017 | 1:00 pm
  #143  
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Default Re: June 8th poll

Originally Posted by Almost Canadian
Prior to the referendum, which of the campaigns ever said, "Brexit means we will remain in the EU but will no longer have a say in how the laws are made?"
These ones?

Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the Single Market. (Daniel Hannan MEP)

Only a madman would actually leave the Market. (Owen Paterson MP, Vote Leave backer)

Wouldn’t it be terrible if we were really like Norway and Switzerland? Really? They’re rich. They’re happy. They’re self-governing. (Nigel Farage, Ukip leader)

The Norwegian option, the EEA option, I think that it might be initially attractive for some business people. (Matthew Elliot, Vote Leave chief executive)

Increasingly, the Norway option looks the best for the UK. (Arron Banks, Leave.EU founder)
 
Old Jun 9th 2017 | 3:29 pm
  #144  
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Default Re: June 8th poll

It's all very well talking about Swiss this and Norway that, but none of this matters. Have we forgotten the decades during which the conservatives have torn themselves apart more than once because there is a hard core that is profoundly anti EU?
The niceties of whether the single market is retained or whether the minutiae of how many immigrants is one that they can persuade the party to agree to matters not a jot. It'll be hard politics and May or her successor will have to fight the men in grey suits as well as the EU bureacracy.
My feeling is that this is a task too far. Either Whitehall and the government will cave in under the pressure or the shutters will come down and, to misquote Churchill, "From Helsinki in the Baltic to Athens in the Adriatic, an inflexible curtain has descended across the continent."
 
Old Jun 9th 2017 | 3:33 pm
  #145  
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Default Re: June 8th poll

"men in grey suits ..."

What about the women?
 
Old Jun 9th 2017 | 5:04 pm
  #146  
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Default Re: June 8th poll

Originally Posted by magnumpi
Will this new coalition make Britain great again ?
Far from it.

I'm actually disgusted that anyone , no matter what circumstance, could think of getting into bed with the DUP.
 
Old Jun 9th 2017 | 7:36 pm
  #147  
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Default Re: June 8th poll

Originally Posted by JonboyE
These ones?

Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the Single Market. (Daniel Hannan MEP)

Only a madman would actually leave the Market. (Owen Paterson MP, Vote Leave backer)

Wouldn’t it be terrible if we were really like Norway and Switzerland? Really? They’re rich. They’re happy. They’re self-governing. (Nigel Farage, Ukip leader)

The Norwegian option, the EEA option, I think that it might be initially attractive for some business people. (Matthew Elliot, Vote Leave chief executive)

Increasingly, the Norway option looks the best for the UK. (Arron Banks, Leave.EU founder)


I think everyone is missing the main point of all of this, which is that Newcastle beat Sunderland. The rest is just about Madmen* leading the Blind.

*Mad women too.
 
Old Jun 9th 2017 | 10:33 pm
  #148  
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Default Re: June 8th poll

Originally Posted by JamesM
This new May "government" won't last till Christmas.

Brexit, if it happens, will take years and years.
Christmas? I don't think May herself will last the summer, if this month. She's basically on life support until the Brexit talks start, and as you point out, they are going to take years to conclude. What's been evident from May's campaign is how inept her judgement has been from day one of her appointment as PM. If the Conservatives move toward a more cooperative/collaborative approach to Brexit, that will be a good thing.
 
Old Jun 10th 2017 | 2:33 am
  #149  
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Default Re: June 8th poll

Originally Posted by BEVS
I'm actually disgusted that anyone , no matter what circumstance, could think of getting into bed with the DUP.
Do you mean from their anti-abortion, anti-gay stance or the more dubious (if that's the right word) connections?
 
Old Jun 10th 2017 | 4:01 am
  #150  
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Default Re: June 8th poll

Originally Posted by Novocastrian


I think everyone is missing the main point of all of this, which is that Newcastle beat Sunderland. The rest is just about Madmen* leading the Blind.

*Mad women too.
Can you buy Sissoko back now?
 


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