Danny B

I've been using this:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...n-inhabitants/

Select the column ‘deaths per million last 7 days.

Shard

When I make an analogy on lottery odds, I ususally do it in terms of time. For example 75,000,000:1 is like choosing a date and time (to the minute) in the last 143 years ! Another way is to determine a time (to the second) within the next 2.3 years.

Shard

Standing capacity at the Royal Albert Hall (eg. proms) is 1350. So approximately one of those audiences lost to Covid per day.

Tangram

Nurse in UK who had Covid in April got vaccine first dose 3 weeks ago. Just been taken to hospital with new strain symptoms.

Tough times ahead.

scrubbedexpat091

A US congressman has COVID last I saw he wasn't showing symptoms fortunately, but he had received his first dose of the vaccine 28 days prior to his positive test.

scrubbedexpat091

Canada won't be receiving any Pfizer vaccines next week at all, this week will receive about 82% of what was expected.

https://www.citynews1130.com/2021/01...ment-deferred/

The US isn't affected by the Pfizer slow down, only countries who receive their supply from the Belgium facility are affected.

BristolUK

Reports from Israel suggest that the first dose may not be as effective as originally thought and that's without consideration of any new strains.

scrubbedexpat091

Government's can't say they were not warned by the manufacture's about relying on dose.

Strain circulating in So. California may be more resistant to the vaccines, but study is needed. A strain first identified in Denmark, but has increased from 3,8% of samples in November in LA area to 25% of samples into Dec and January.

California has also held back a specific bath of Moderna vaccine after San Diego area saw higher than anticipated allergic reactions from that specific batch.

https://deadline.com/2021/01/another...rk-1234675834/


As for the UK and SA strains, last i can find they think the vaccines may work, but more study is needed to confirm.

Danny B

OMG, can you imagine the worldwide chaos that another strain going viral would cause if these current vaccines didn't work. Talk about banging your head on a wall.

scrubbedexpat091

Hopefully the virus expert people will know soon.

A little concerning is just before Christmas it was reported in US media Walter Reed Medical Center researchers were examining the UK strain to determine vaccine effectiveness and should know within a few days, but then nothing else was reported beyond that from what I can find, and its been a month almost, just odd nothing was followed up on that by the media it seems.

Stumpylegs

Looks like the shelves are empty in the stock room of the new vaccination centre in Toronto - hope its a very temporary supply issue not a sign of things to come (although the UK vaccination numbers have started to tail off already)

Toronto vaccination centre to temporarily close

Shard

Some very good commentary from Prof Christina Pagel here (starts at 4:05)

- UK might be at peak deaths, cases coming down now, but hospitalisations rising
- hospitalisations double of wave 1 and a long way to go to get back down (another 8 weeks)
- lockdown necessary well beyond February because even if 70+ are vaccinated, 90% of cases are in below that age range
- younger (non-vaccinated) group is at risk of long covid, and further transmission time gives virus more chance to mutate
- NHS staff extremely stressed in wave 2

printer

2021 is going to be a non event much like most of 2020 i feel. I won't be making any plans for some time to come.

Shard

I'm not sure, we are in the thick of it now, but by early summer things may be very different. Nevertheless, I'm also holding off on making any plans.

scrubbedexpat091

Canada has a supply issue, but not at the fault of the government. Pfizer is pausing some production lines at their Belgium plant as they announced last week. Then today it was made known that next weeks order was deferred and Canada wont be receiving any, and then the first 2 weeks of February the deliveries will be roughly cut in half.


Hopefully J&J will be approved sometime in the next month, however their production has hit a snag and will be behind schedule so if approved in February may not see any until mid March to April.

Seems the US is about the only country not facing Pfizer delays, but they do have Pfizers largest or one of the largest manufacturing facilities so that helps.