Coronavirus

Old Aug 13th 2020, 9:00 pm
  #2476  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Danny B View Post
Don't let the media scare you with case numbers. Remember that for 99% of those new cases, the infected people have very mild symtoms and recover OK at home.
Keep your eye on the admitted to ICU and death numbers.
Do you have any basis for the mythical "99% have mild symptoms" assertion? In the US about 10% are hospitalized and a little over 3% die. Of course it is well known that mortality is skewed heavily towards the elderly, those with pre-existing conditions, and ethnic minorities. So it's OK for everyone else to be blasé about the whole thing and not worry if they are spreading the disease to others in the community.

Then there is the "problem" that some people don't seem to experience any symptoms and don't get tested, unless sampled randomly or required to, for example if requiring other health services

Last edited by Pulaski; Aug 13th 2020 at 9:12 pm.
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Old Aug 13th 2020, 9:14 pm
  #2477  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
Do you have any basis for the mythical "99% have mild symptoms" assertion? In the US about 10% are hospitalized and a little over 3% die. Of course it is well known that mortality is skewed heavily towards the elderly, those with pre-existing conditions, and ethnic minorities.

Then there is the "problem" that some people don't seem to experience any symptoms and don't get tested, unless sampled randomly or required to, for example if requiring other health services
Someone with better math skills would need to do the math for BC but here is the total numbers as of yesterday

Total Cases- 4,196
Deaths- 196
Hospitalizations- 551

293,127 tests conducted

https://experience.arcgis.com/experi...9e3cda29297ded

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Old Aug 13th 2020, 9:36 pm
  #2478  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Jsmth321 View Post
Someone with better math skills would need to do the math for BC but here is the total numbers as of yesterday

Total Cases- 4,196
Deaths- 196
Hospitalizations- 551 ....
If total cases is 4,196, then 1% is 42 cases, and 196/ 42 is almost 5%. .... So based on another assertion above, apparently 4% of Canadians who get coronavirus drop dead having only experienced mild symptoms, and 12% (551/42 - 1%) are hospitalized after experiencing only mild symptoms. I suspect that someone's sincere assertion might be a little off.

Last edited by Pulaski; Aug 13th 2020 at 9:38 pm.
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Old Aug 13th 2020, 9:37 pm
  #2479  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Jsmth321 View Post
Someone with better math skills would need to do the math for BC but here is the total numbers as of yesterday

Total Cases- 4,196
Deaths- 196
Hospitalizations- 551

293,127 tests conducted
So assuming all the deaths were in hospital that's 551 hospitalisations out of known cases of 4196.
13% serious enough to be in hospital.

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Old Aug 13th 2020, 11:33 pm
  #2480  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
Do you have any basis for the mythical "99% have mild symptoms" assertion?
I was referring to people within jsmith's age group as per https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...-patients.html
Mild symptoms as in you feel like shit for a week and don't need a trip to ICU.

Age is a strong risk factor for severe illness, complications, and death.[size=8333px] [/size]Among >44,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China, the case fatality rate was highest among older persons:
≥80 years, 14.8%;
70–79 years, 8.0%;
60–69 years, 3.6%;
50–59 years, 1.3%;
40–49 years, 0.4%;
<40 years, 0.2%.


In early U.S. epidemiologic data, case fatality was highest in persons aged ≥85 years (range 10%–27%), followed by those aged 65-84 years (3%–11%), aged 55-64 years (1%–3%), and aged <55 years (<1%).

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Old Aug 13th 2020, 11:34 pm
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Default Re: Coronavirus

78 new cases in the last 24 hours
Total active cases 578
9 in hospital and 4 in ICU
New outbreak at Okanagan Correctional Centre due to 3 staff members.

Most cases still linked to young people with exposure coming from events in the community. (I think this is government talk for parties.)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...t-13-1.5685525
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Old Aug 14th 2020, 1:04 am
  #2482  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Siouxie View Post
All the stats for BC on one website (official) - https://experience.arcgis.com/experi...9e3cda29297ded
8 currently in hospital - 5 in ICU
My maths is pretty bad, but out of a population of 5m isn't 5 in ICU 0.0001%

Last edited by Danny B; Aug 14th 2020 at 1:07 am.
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Old Aug 14th 2020, 3:14 am
  #2483  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Hopefully the contact tracing works and the curve slows downward a bit.

"British Columbia's COVID-19 curve is now climbing at a higher rate than the initial outbreak in March, and new provincial modelling shows B.C. could see a second wave bigger than the first by September."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...t-13-1.5685525


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Old Aug 14th 2020, 7:54 am
  #2484  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Jsmth321 View Post
Hopefully the contact tracing works and the curve slows downward a bit.

"British Columbia's COVID-19 curve is now climbing at a higher rate than the initial outbreak in March, and new provincial modelling shows B.C. could see a second wave bigger than the first by September."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...t-13-1.5685525
Looking at that, surely a decision needs to be made now as to whether to lock down/go back to phase 1/2.

Whilst I'm only keeping half an eye on figures for BC it would appear to me at the current trend first wave numbers will be exceeded in days not weeks (especially as its now the weekend again).

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Old Aug 14th 2020, 12:13 pm
  #2485  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Stumpylegs View Post
Looking at that, surely a decision needs to be made now as to whether to lock down/go back to phase 1/2.

Whilst I'm only keeping half an eye on figures for BC it would appear to me at the current trend first wave numbers will be exceeded in days not weeks (especially as its now the weekend again).
Saskatchewan's case numbers show an increase but most continue to be in communal living settings (Hutterite Colonies). There have been a few infected people traced to box stores (2 that I shopped in, but not at the same time!). As more cases are reported in Regina (and partly thanks to the Walmart mask rule), people who weren't interested in masks and hand sanitizer before, are now acquiring them. Also, if the province can't fine-tune the school opening plan into something sensible, the teachers might hold a strike vote to try to force the issue.
Overall in many ways we're better prepared for a second wave than we were for the first one, but for the businesses that have gone under or are struggling, and for those who no longer have jobs, government supplements will still be necessary, and they don't grow on trees. We're trying to lay out a social distanced seating plan for the venue where I work, but there won't be any hope of turning a profit in the near future (that I can see).
https://leaderpost.com/news/saskatch...-92aa0cf3a4d1/
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Old Aug 14th 2020, 2:04 pm
  #2486  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by caretaker View Post
Saskatchewan's case numbers show an increase but most continue to be in communal living settings (Hutterite Colonies). There have been a few infected people traced to box stores (2 that I shopped in, but not at the same time!). As more cases are reported in Regina (and partly thanks to the Walmart mask rule), people who weren't interested in masks and hand sanitizer before, are now acquiring them. Also, if the province can't fine-tune the school opening plan into something sensible, the teachers might hold a strike vote to try to force the issue.
Overall in many ways we're better prepared for a second wave than we were for the first one, but for the businesses that have gone under or are struggling, and for those who no longer have jobs, government supplements will still be necessary, and they don't grow on trees. We're trying to lay out a social distanced seating plan for the venue where I work, but there won't be any hope of turning a profit in the near future (that I can see).
https://leaderpost.com/news/saskatch...-92aa0cf3a4d1/
Same as my county in the UK, we had 21 new cases but 19 were in a single traveller camp.

SK seems to have been fairly stable, but BC which has had remarkably low cases from what I can tell, is now back at levels not seen since late April.

Given the fact that more mixing, less social distancing seems to be a given at the weekends and cases will continue to peak for several days after a lock down - it feels to me like BC needs to make that decision pretty sharpish if they want to drive numbers down (or alternatively whether they want to stay open for business in the current state but not open up further).
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Old Aug 14th 2020, 4:25 pm
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Old Aug 14th 2020, 4:48 pm
  #2488  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Jsmth321 View Post
Yes and no. Unless the 34 people live in an isolated community, 34 people is as good as fully connected to the entire city/ region that Riley lives in. The further people in your actual bubble are away from the mini-bubble you think you're in, the more porous the skin of the bubble will be. That is behind the Pulaski family's decision to rigorously maintain our three-person bubble, with as few trips for essential supplies as possible, and no non-essential contact, or trips for purely leisure or entertainment.

This has meant fobbing-off Mrs P's parents who wanted to spend the night recently, but while they seem to have been fairly careful, they are attending a church, and were on their way to a wedding in another state, meaning toilet stops, restaurant meals, at least one hotel, not to mention the wedding itself. As they are well past retirement age, both have some health issues, and my FIL some fairly serious ones, I am surprised at their lack of concern, though neither are educated in matters of biology/ medicine, or science in general, but in any case we don't want to join their open-ended bubble.
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Old Aug 14th 2020, 4:49 pm
  #2489  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Jsmth321 View Post
[Riley's 34 person bubble.]
Yes and no. Unless the 34 people live in an isolated community, 34 people is as good as fully connected to the entire city/ region that Riley lives in. The further people in your actual bubble are away from the mini-bubble you think you're in, the more porous the skin of the bubble will be. That is behind the Pulaski family's decision to rigorously maintain our three-person bubble, with as few trips for essential supplies as possible, and no non-essential contact, or trips for purely leisure or entertainment.

This has meant fobbing-off Mrs P's parents who wanted to spend the night recently, but while they seem to have been fairly careful, they are attending a church, and were on their way to a wedding in another state, meaning toilet stops, restaurant meals, at least one hotel, not to mention the wedding itself. As they are well past retirement age, both have some health issues, and my FIL some fairly serious ones. I am surprised at their lack of concern, though perhaps I shouldn't be as neither are educated in matters of biology/ medicine, or science in general, but in any case we don't want to join their open-ended bubble.

Last edited by Pulaski; Aug 14th 2020 at 4:53 pm.
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Old Aug 14th 2020, 4:52 pm
  #2490  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

This is an example of what is fueling the spread in BC currently.

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/video-shows-pa...club-1.5063998
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