Re: "Brexit"
 

Lets get real about this. Polls are about money for the polling entities and giving their record over the past ten years have lost pretty much most of their credibility. (Poll of 1000, labour supporting internet users or whatever. Poll of 1000 rugby players or whatever).

Consistently, options on financial markets and bookmaking odds have predicted correctly political events. So we have the 'Remain' vote still on 65% probability. That's not to say that it's not going to change but at the moment I think that you will find that the bookmaking fraternity will take on any poll saying otherwise. I certainly will.

Re: "Brexit"
 

Yes, these polls are based on incredibly small, not very representative samples and are often wrong for this reason. Also the pound is down a bit, but not disastrously so at the moment. Still, let's remember that the bookies and the financial whiz-kids base their calculations on "confidence intervals" and other statistical concepts. A 65% probability doesn't mean 65% in favour of remaining, it means a 65% chance of Remain getting even slightly more than 50%, so it's still touch and go.

But I hope you're right!

Re: "Brexit"
 

'A 65% probability doesn't mean 65% in favour of remaining, it means a 65% chance of Remain getting even slightly more than 50%, so it's touch and go.' jonwel.

Very true. 60% now this morning. Brexit continues to gain.

Re: "Brexit"
 

Brexit could lead to a devastating asteroid strike. Remaining in Europe would make all birds change their songs leading to aviary confusion. I have never seen such twaddle peddled.

Re: "Brexit"
 

Twaddle indeed. I wish the remainers would keep quiet and just let the outers blabber on - it would be good propaganda for staying. The trouble is that all the reasoned arguments for staying are for the consumption of those already convinced, they don't convince the undecided.

Re: "Brexit"
 

the deputy leader of the labour party, pro remain, was saying today that a future labour government might well try to renegotiate on this. The whole thing is a mess, starting to think that it will end in tears whatever the referendum result.
[URL= http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/14/tom-watson-eu-freedom-movement-may-need-reform[/URL]

Re: "Brexit"
 

Re: "Brexit"
 

If someone can sort that link for me I'd be grateful, am on a wonky phone. Google news search tom watson freedom of movement.

Re: "Brexit"
 

HERE.

Re: "Brexit"
 

I doubt a future Labour government is going any more clout than the current one on the issue. By the time they're elected the whole thing may have unravelled in any case.

Re: "Brexit"
 

;)
Courtesy of NewsThump

Both sides of the referendum campaign have taken to social media to search for new things to frighten you with.
After Vote Leave claimed that staying in the EU will result in vast rises in clowns with sharp teeth sleeping under your bed, the Remain camp said leaving the EU would result in more unannounced week-long visits from your Mother-in-law.
With the UK electorate demonstrating more clearly than ever that they are more willing to vote against things that scare them than vote in support of things they like, both sides have stepped up the fear rhetoric.
A spokesperson for the Remain campaign said, “We’ve done recession, taxes, pensions and unemployment – so today we’re doing mothers-in-law, hand-sized house spiders and bin juice.
“We’d planned to be talking about the positive things the EU has done, like workers’ rights, the single-market and its associated economic growth, or allowing us to visit and work in Europe more easily than ever – but no-one’s interested, so spiders dipped in bin juice it is.”
A spokesperson for Vote Leave said, “We’ve done immigrants, house prices and terrorism – so today we’re doing clowns with pointed teeth, wasps, and the bits of food that get stuck in the plug hole after washing up.
“We’d planned to be talking about the positive things we could do outside of the EU, like negotiating our own trade deal with China, creating production standards optimised for British businesses or even creating an international workforce that more accurately meets our needs, but no-one’s interested, so clowns under your bed it is.”
Voters across the country have said they have almost decided who to vote for, and will visit the polling booths on 23th June as long as they are not still paralysed by fear


A Resigned Observer

Re: "Brexit"
 

Theresa may was saying similar things to mr watson the other day, so the future looks fraught whatever happens. What do you mean by it may all have unravelled?
I am afraid that as a battered idealist i often find the ill disguised self interest in these big issues somewhat depressing. Saw a brief interview with a young polish woman on brit telly the other day. Asked for her thoughts on possible brexit she cleary had zilch interest in it or its implications for either brits or her fellow poles. Just me me me. Rather coquetishly, she pretty much said "who cares, i'm here now".
There are now i think about 800,000 + poles in the uk but i have the impression that poland is somewhat reluctant to take more than a minimal amount of folk from abroad.
None of the above a criticism of you britinparis, a genuine question of mine above.

Re: "Brexit"
 

Remain is now having a comeback. 65% probability up from 60% on Monday. But as jonwel correctly stated, probabilities are only the probability of 50% + 1. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that a remain-leave vote of +/- 2-3% could lead to a new era of coalition governments.

Re: "Brexit"
 

The European Union itself. Popular anti-EU sentiment is rising, particularly in the rest of Northern Europe who, like the UK, have never really believed in the 'European project'. If the UK votes to leave then Sweden, who only joined the EU in 1995 with a referendum majority of 52.3%, is looking at holding its own 'Swexit' referendum. I can easily imagine the Danes doing the same and Norway and Iceland never joined and now never will. Finland will remain a member if for no other reason than it has a resurgent Russia breathing down its neck and it is unable to join NATO without risking World War III so the EU is its only bulwark against Russian aggression.

The EU worked well when it consisted of six rich, stable Western European countries clubbing together with the mutual self-interest of no longer wanting to go to war with each other every thirty years. If the EU had remained as these same six countries then the Euro would also had made much sense. By continually expanding into countries which, economically, politically and culturally, were increasing divergent from its founding members the EU has made itself incredibly vulnerable to external factors.

The recession has caused Spain, Italy and Greece to suffer appalling economic conditions, because as members of the Eurozone they can no longer devalue their currencies as they previously would have been able to.

There's a migration crisis due to the destabilisation of the Arab world, thanks in part to European member states' interference in the Middle East and North Africa, for which the EU seems wholly unable to cope with causing individual members to abandon collective responsibility in order to protect their own narrow national self-interest.

With 28 current members and the rest of the Balkans lining up to join up over the next ten years the entire project has become as ungovernable as it is unaccountable. If the UK does vote for Brexit then the whole edifice is likely to come crashing down around Brussels' ears.

Re: "Brexit"
 

Thanks britinparis for the thoughtful answer and thanks sancho for sorting the link.