Re: "Brexit"
 

Incredible isn't it for a man who two months ago couldn't decide which camp to support!

Of course, for Boris Johnson, this isn't about Brexit. It's just a means to an end for him, i.e. his bid to become Prime Minister of the UK, an ambition he's been working on for some years now. That's also why he decided to become an MP again last year when he'd promised he wouldn't be one while he was mayor. He realised he needed the contacts inside parliament to help him up.

He's just treating this like an Oxford University debate but this time the stakes are much higher and he is an extremely competitive man. Did you see the look on his face when he knocked that kid over that time during a playful game of rugby?!

He's an utter charlatan. Lies and u-turns all the way just to win the point. No so long ago he was arguing to let Turkey in to the EU, citing his Turkish ancestry. He wrote about how Churchill loved Europe.

I recommend you read Nick Cohen on Johnson. Fascinating stuff.

The big question is, is he still part-American? Has he given up his US citizenship like he's been promising since 2006? Is he going to announce his definitive divorce AGAIN just before the Brexit vote as a poll winning tactic? Or is he keeping that escape hatch open like he mentioned he had always prepared to do?

Re: "Brexit"
 

"Incredible isn't it for a man who two months ago couldn't decide which camp to support!"

It is interesting that his father, an ex MEP, ex employee of the EU and supporting the
Remain side new nothing of his son's Brexit intentions. On the other hand his father was speaking two years ago about Johnson furthering his ambitions becoming an MP before he finished as Mayor of London. A potential move that Boris was long denying.

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Well it's looking increasingly likely that Boris may have called this one just a little bit wrong. The larger polls are now catching up with the bond markets. Today, even the Daily Mail are giving publicity to an 18% poll lead for the Remain campaign. Bond markets are now implying 76% probability of Remain winning. At this rate its not going to be too long before the resign Boris calls are going to overtake the resign Jeremy calls.

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And going back to Italy and the eurozone.

Italian government debt is essentially payable in euros. This is a fact. And the debt is big. Really big.

So if Italy pulls out of the eurozone the new lire will take life at a 25, 35, 45, 55% discount?. Take your pick. It doesn't really matter. Unless of course these terribly nice international creditors say, 'don't worry, we quite understand if you pay us 25, 35, 45, 55% or whatever less.

So, with the (very high) possibility that they might not agree, then I'm afraid there's a good chance that The Republic of Italy (Italy's official borrowing entity) may default on their financial obligations.

So, my €5000 in the bank (guaranteed up to €100,000 by the Bank of Italia but has the problem that the guarantee has failed) may realise the equivalent of €2500. Likewise for my €800 per month pension payments. I might realise the equivalent of €400. And forget about payments for solar electricity generation. These are not going to be paid. This is the hard reality, I'm afraid, of the re-adoption in whatever form of the lire.

For better or for worse, Italy had made its bed by adopting the euro. Whether this in hindsight was a good or bad decision, I'm sure everyone has an opinion. But the fact remains that Italy is part of the euro currency zone and a withdrawal would have life changing implications for pretty much everyone.

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Didn't we predict this already?.

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1. Yes, as part of the EEA Norway has to contribute huge sums to the EU, and they must also accept the free movement of people, money and goods. (But they have no say in EU decision making). Nigel Farage has spent his adult life not knowing this. He was still championing the "Norwegian model" at the beginning of the debate a couple of months ago, if you remember; he said Norway was rich, happy and successful. Since then someone must have pointed out the error of his ways because the word Norway hasn't actually passed his lips since, has it? Yet, no alternative scenario has been mentioned, except I suppose Johnson's Britain can be "glorious" again coments! Some kind of rekindling of the British Empire spirit clearly on the cards in his mind.

2. If the UK leaves, it will also become a major competitor of the EU on the global stage. That might shake things up a bit in the UK -- but I'm sure that with more relaxed employment laws, cheap energy in the form of frackling and nuclear, and a lower pound, the UK could be actually quite competitive - just don't expect too much sharing of the wealth though. As the man who is funding the Leave campaign said: We will get out there and we will be become incredibly successful because we will be insecure again. And insecurity is fantastic.

I suppose that must be quite easy to say if you're a billionaire with no large mortgage to pay off every month or kids to get through school. Yes, I guess there are millions of people right now thinking how great it would be to have an excuse to wake up worrying in the middle of the night.

My imaginary Steve Bell cartoon image is of a Briton hard at work with a chain around their ankle tied to the UK looking longingly over across to the Mediterranean thinking "Nobody mentioned this as a post Brexit scenario!"

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become a major competitor of Europe -- the UK is already in a trade deficit with the rest of Europe. Most of the UK is owned by Europe - water, telecoms, infrastrcucture, electricity, rail , - in what way would we compete with Europe except selling hedge funds and Burberry scarves? Bearing in mind that since Thatcher Britain has no basic industry, and runs only a service economy, the UK will compete on skinny lattes and call centres?

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Johnson's idea of a foreign trade policy has been already hinted at: if the French and Germans don't buy our knickers and bikes, we won't buy their champagne and cars! The man's a fool. Like the Brits will go along with that! Mind you affording luxury products will be the last thing on the list of priorities by then. Today's news is about falling house prices. Negative equity will happen and I think if Brexit happens it will end in tears.

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According to a Friday interview in the Guardian the greatest insecurity Peter Hargreaves faces is going out on a horrible, cold, wet January morning to pick the vegetables for Sunday lunch on his 4 acre patch. :ohmy:

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1. Norway has lots of natural resources, and a very small population. The UK has few natural resources and a comparatively huge population.

2. The Eurozone GDP rivals, if not exceeds that of the US (world's largest economy?). Today, Britain's GDP by comparison is about 1/6th of that. And times are pretty good at present. May not be so peachy following a vote to become more insular. In any case, suggesting that a post-brexit Britain would be "competing" with Europe on the world stage is probably a bit generous (to the UK).

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I'm glad to see so many people with an internationalist outlook on this forum! And there seem to be plenty at home too... but we've still got to bring a few people to their senses, the ones sitting at home hostile to wops, frogs, krauts and the rest, who are willing to accept the Leave campaign at face value.
Still, as I said a few pages back, neither In nor Out will solve our problems.

By the way, to those who have Italian citizenship, I call for a NO vote in October. If that clown then resigns, good riddance! But unfortunately there's no one else to replace him - which is where his apparent strength comes from.

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"will become a major competitor"

Yes, it was v late when I wrote that! What I meant was "will have to become a major competitor (if it wants to have any chance of survival)"

The leavers are saying that EU migration is pushing down wages in unskilled jobs and that being part of the EU is stopping workers from India and China coming to work in the UK. It was during the Daily Mirror debate, the one where Farage lost his rag with Mandelson. I don't entirely understand the logic. Have I missed something, are wages higher in Asia?!

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It's becoming increasingly tougher for Boris. Whatever your views, 'Remain' are now on a roll. Markets are implying an 80% probability of winning. Bookies are pricing at 83% and private polls are showing as much as a 20% lead.

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;)and I can smell the whif of a u-turn by the Daily Wail. Ciònonostante I am one of those firmly in favour of 'out' for a whole host of reasons; that have nothing to do with immigration or immediate economic effect. Whether or not I will be amongst a minority, remains to be seen.

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'and I can smell the whif of a u-turn by the Daily Wail'.

Daily Mail editor received £88,000 in EU subsidies in 2014 | Media | The Guardian

Or it couldn't possibly be this knighthood thingy.