"Brexit"
 

Now might be a good time to ask what thoughts people have on the possible exit of the UK from the EU. Will they vote to leave or to stay in ? Either way, what'll happen then ? What consequences might there be for Brit residents in Italy ? Any precautions one could take ? Will M & S still deliver ? etc

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    I don't know what might happen to me in Italy, but yesterday I requested a passport application form from the Irish Embassy. For the sake of 80 Euro it won't do any harm to have another passport.  

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I'm not worried - Brits were living here long before the EU ever existed.

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I am a bit worried because as EU citizens we are usually on a par with Italian citizens, and I don't like the idea of becoming an extra-comunitario.

The whole Conservative Party campaign is based on the immigrant question, but they don't think about the rights of British citizens living in the EU, it's never even crossed their minds.

Anyway I hear this morning that many with big economic interests (including M&S Sancho!) are pushing to stay in so ...

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The Bankers want us out. My solution would be the Icelandic one. Lock up all those bankers and throw the keys away.

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The problem will be that Italy applies the law of reciprocity. So if the Uk say Italians cant have this or that, then it will be applied to Uk citizens in Italy.

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It is possible that, as with many other parts of the world, British state pensions for Italian residents would be frozen. Not a very pleasant prospect for the poorer expats particularly if inflation reappears!

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I would like to know who is entitled to vote in the referendum. British citizens resident in the UK only or British citizens who live abroad.
It will be very interesting if we can vote too.

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Probably the same rules as for General Elections..you lose your right to vote if you've been out of the UK for 15 years. You basically have the same (non) rights as prisoners and illegal immigrants.

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thats about it MarkRD - this will be the last thing Im allowed to vote in...

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From BBC website:

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I've just applied to https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote,
also to be able to vote by proxy (British citizen living overseas), this option is on the same site.
But I have only been out of the UK for 5 years.

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Ok, so I qualify then with 13 years being an expat?

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I would imagine so, you can only try!
I applied online, printed off the proxy vote application form. Now just waiting for forms to be posted out to me which obviously need to be returned by post. You need to get it sorted sooner than later, if you want to vote.

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The UK press are a bit fixated on the pound dollar exchange rate probably because over the past couple of years the dollar has seen significant strength. ie a weak pound and strong dollar makes for bigger headline changes. Over the past three months, however, the pound has lost 7.5% of its value compared to the euro. Financial markets are currently pricing in a roughly 33% chance of an Out victory so in this event it would not be unrealistic to see the pound down by a further 15% to around 1.10. This is crudely where the likes of HSBC and JP Morgan's Brexit prediction rates are coming from. Personally, I think the analysis is quite reasonable so unless you are currently selling your home or moving back to the UK, it's difficult to see how most Brits will gain financially (at least for quite some time) from the Out vote winning.

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In 2013 there were supposed to be 140,000 Italians living in the UK while there were under 30,000 British in Italy.
Quite a few of those Italians probably have good jobs in the UK. Who knows what will happen when reciprocity is applied.

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I have a "dipendente" job based on the fact I'm an EU citizen - I wonder if that would be taken away from me if I became non-EU. If an Italian company wants to employ a non-EU citizen they have to justify that decision and prove they can't source the labour from inside the EU.

I suppose the banks would be quite happy to leave - they'll be able to do their own thing. Of course, assets in the UK would be treated differently if it was outside the EU - so IVAFE and IVIE would increase. Then there's the worst case scenario where the UK becomes some kind of tax haven and Italy puts it on the black list. Yikes!

About a low pound - in the case of an OUT vote that would be good for UK business selling abroad, so I don't think the government would do anything to prop it up. It would also encourage British people to holiday at home and attract tourists from overseas which would help the UK economy.

Watching the UK news, I don't even know if young people realised that an out vote would massively reduce their choice of countries in which to go and work.

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'About a low pound - in the case of an OUT vote that would be good for UK business selling abroad'.

Very true. But the UK has for many, many years, run a big balance of trade deficit. ie, the U.K. imports considerably more than she exports. The higher price of these imports on a devalued pound would far outweigh any gain to exporters (at least for many years). I'm also not sure that overseas holidays would be curtailed to any extent. I think that it's more likely that less would be spent on domestic purchases. Anyway, I think that we both agree on the benefits of remaining in. I also think that the financial markets give a much better idea of the state of play rather than the opinion polls. (Far more accurate on Scottish ref., general election, Obama 2nd term etc). For what it's worth, they are saying that the chance of an In victory is currently 68%. This started the week at 66% before falling to 62% on the Boris effect before bouncing right back to a slighter higher position. Similarly, betting odds currently suggest a 65% chance of the in vote winning.

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How are the Swiss or Norwegians treated in Italy? Are they completely extracommunitari or roughly on a par with communitari? I believe there's something called the EEA of which Norway & Switzerland are members and which means that, in the UK at least, you can live and work as if you were from an EU country, though I could be wrong on that score.

I'm fairly sure the "In" vote will win because the British people are inherently fairly conservative in outlook (not to be confused with being Tory!), cf. Scottish referendum, voting reform referendum. I suspect it will be reasonably close and it could cause big political problems for the Conservative party but I firmly hope "in" remains - I can't see the point in running away from something just because you don't like it.

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For teh Swiss and Norwegians the law of reciprocity applies.

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The right to live and work anywhere in Europe is not an European Onion matter, it results from membership of the European Economic Area (EEA), and covers not only Switzerland and Norway, but also Lichtenstein and Iceland.

Leaving the EU would, ironically, not change in any way the numbers of migrant workers coming to the UK from elsewhere in the EEA. The UK would also have to leave the EEA.

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&nbsp; Can I just say ..... I admire your knowledge and many of your posts, but it's good to see that you make typos too.<img title="LOL" class="inlineimg" alt="LOL" src="http://britishexpats.com/forum/images/smilies/lol.gif" style="height:20px; width:20px" />

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:unsure:

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Surely "Onion" isn't a typo. The organisation has many layers and can make you cry if you try to cut it.

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It's worth remembering that both the UK and Italy are also members of OCSE, a treaty which will not be affected by 'Brexit'. This treaty has a lot of scope, and contains a lot of reciprocal arrangements which allowed my wife to work in the UK in the late fifties; and myself to obtain a permesso di soggiorno in the early sixties. Just for the record I'm all in favour of 'Brexit'.

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All true Ononno, but dont you think it is the thin end of the wedge? The rise of nationalism and knee jerk protectionism will take us back directly pre WWI and WW2 and any other pre war period you care to name. Personally, I think the EU will fall to bits anyway, I ust think the BRexit will hasten it all along. I also suspect that putin will be thrilled his 'indiscriminate' bombing raids to help his mate, have had the collatoral effect of bringing the EU to its knees - not that he didnt hope it would be this way. Its a win win for him - more influence in the middle east, and the Eu block on his border crumbling with internal problems. Whether the UK stamps its feet and votes in or out really matters very little in the larger picture.

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Just for the record I'm all in favour of 'Brexit'.[/QUOTE]

Me too, and as I can still vote in UK I will.
Never mind B.Expats, Italy is awash with people from outside the EU, all living happily ever after. Chinese, Ukrainians, Filipinos,Ecuadorian and the rest of S. America not to talk about Russians all living in Italy (and not paying IVIE & IVAFE !)
So what difference will it make. None.

Interesting article here:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article54205.html

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Yeah!! Glad you pointed this out. I have all, but given up cos folks think I'm mad!

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Meanwhile, elsewhere -

British expats in Berlin fret over Brexit debate | Politics | The Guardian

Re: "Brexit"
 

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It is true what Pulaski says. The EEA and the EU do have the same ideals; free movement of persons, goods, services and capital within its member states (currently the EU states plus Norway, Liechtenstein and Iceland).

EU states are obliged join the EEA but EU membership is not necessary to join as long as your country is willing to fork out a very large sum of money.

Whether or not the UK stays part of the EEA would be a post Brexit decision on the part of the UK government and membership would still have to be negotiated with the EU, ratified and PAID for.

As a member of the EU the UK has both political and economic clout. As a member of the EEA, that would be only an economic benefit, with no political influence whatsoever.

Switzerland is not a member of the EEA. It has bilateral agreements with the EU allowing it access to its internal market.

So, I read that pro-Brexiters believe the UK is going to stronger than ever when it's made loads of trade agreements all round the world. Really? And where would those countries be exactly? Apart from renegotiating with the countries that already have agreements with the EU, where exactly are all these extra unexploited markets going to pop up from?

So many countries have protectionist policies regarding imported goods it really makes exporting to them a bureaucratic and costly nightmare and it's getting worse (I'm talking from personal professional experience here). Let alone the sheer cost of shipping.

There are currently many underdeveloped markets on the UK's doorstep within the EU and the UK should be looking to those for trade not some far flung ex-colonial staging post.

By the way, may I suggest reading something like the below link from a reputable journalist source rather than the previous link to marketoracle.co.uk which was frankly one of the worst pieces of writing I've ever read.

What Would `Brexit' Really Mean for Firms in London's City?: Q&A - Bloomberg Business

At the end of the day there are lots of questions and nobody knows what the answers are … as David Cameron said leaving the EU will be a leap into the dark.

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The pro-EU crowd seem to think that the discussion begins and ends with the economics of Brexit. It doesn't.

They also seem to believe that the EU is stable if Britain leaves and that the EU will continue as if nothing had happened. I do not believe that would be the case.

The EU is undemocratic and unstable, and you can hardly blame Britain if Britain leaves and the whole edifice collapses when the architects built such a deeply flawed structure.

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Err, we were discussing the European Economic Area weren't we?

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Yes, but the decision to stay or leave has other angles than just economics. I would vote to leave even if it reduced GDP.

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"the decision to stay or leave has other angles than just economics."

I think the majority of educated adults would agree with that.

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I would still take it all day long over the democracy and stability offered to us by Westminster or Rome.

Changing the subject slightly, can we all agree that "Brexit" is a horrible word than needs to be consigned to the bin asap?

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Does it really matter :huh: Was there a backlash against the term Grexit :huh:

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I personally don't find Bruxelles less democratic than any Western capital. Yes it is dominated by lobbies, but so is Westminster, so is Montecitorio, so is Capitol Hill. On the other hand, it is indeed possible for the people to influence the decisions made there. Many controversial treaties and directives have died in the European Parliament after campaigns have been organized by associations and movements in various parts of Europe. All it takes is to recognize that Europe as a whole can have a common political dimension, a demos. Normally the average Briton fails to acknowledge this, in part because British media is always focused on national politics, and reports very little of Europen politics, partially because of the well known sense of diversity from the "continent". What surprises me is that expats who have lived for decades on the "continent", still seem unable to acknowledge that an European demos is possibile.

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At this moment the EU is in more trouble than ever before, a fact they openly admit.
The cracks are clearly showing as many countries now make their own decisions with regard to security and the refugee situation.

As a result of their loss of control, the Germans are very angry with almost everybody and have even fallen out with their closest allies.

I forecast ever more EU countries continuing to make their own decisions in their own best interests from now on and endless very costly trouble and strife as a result.

The UK is better off well out of it ASAP IMHO.

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Let the house of cards collapse and then salvage anything worthwhile. :nod: