Canada recession looming?
Jun 30th 2012, 6:42 pm
#46
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Joined: Sep 2010
Location: Calgary, Alberta
Posts: 404
Re: Canada recession looming?
My profound apologies. I tend to get a bit annoyed by comments which appear to run along the lines of "if I can't have it, neither can anyone else", when it comes to things like the cost of housing, or public sector wages and benefits. Again, sorry if I offended you.
I am referring to the overinflated Van market, so that people on a normal inco£e. Could afford to buy! I am fine with it dropping, even as a. Home owner here - it is way over priced.
Jun 30th 2012, 6:53 pm
#47
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Joined: May 2012
Location: South Bucks
Posts: 1,654
Re: Canada recession looming?
even after selling our house we cannot afford to retire here!
Jun 30th 2012, 6:59 pm
#48
half a century
Joined: Mar 2008
Location: Sarf Lundun to East Van :)
Posts: 10,222
Re: Canada recession looming?
My profound apologies. I tend to get a bit annoyed by comments which appear to run along the lines of "if I can't have it, neither can anyone else", when it comes to things like the cost of housing, or public sector wages and benefits. Again, sorry if I offended you.
Jun 30th 2012, 7:06 pm
#49
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Joined: Jun 2003
Location: 100 mile house BC (tiz a long way away from devon)
Posts: 888
Re: Canada recession looming?
Hi
Yep lean times ahead me thinks also.
maybe a change of government is needed, national and provincial.
and see how a change of tack does..
cheers
Jerry
Yep lean times ahead me thinks also.
maybe a change of government is needed, national and provincial.
and see how a change of tack does..
cheers
Jerry
Jun 30th 2012, 8:28 pm
#52
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Joined: Sep 2010
Location: Calgary, Alberta
Posts: 404
Re: Canada recession looming?
So you think that people who do jobs that you, perhaps, feel are beneath you, should not get a remuneration that reflects the unattractiveness of the job. I hope you are comfortable, sitting on your arse in your cubicle, when other people are removing your trash, fighting fires, taking care of the sick, cleaning-up after your, no doubt perfect, children in their school. What an obnoxious twit!
Jun 30th 2012, 9:28 pm
#53
half a century
Joined: Mar 2008
Location: Sarf Lundun to East Van :)
Posts: 10,222
Re: Canada recession looming?
So you think that people who do jobs that you, perhaps, feel are beneath you, should not get a remuneration that reflects the unattractiveness of the job. I hope you are comfortable, sitting on your arse in your cubicle, when other people are removing your trash, fighting fires, taking care of the sick, cleaning-up after your, no doubt perfect, children in their school. What an obnoxious twit!
Jun 30th 2012, 10:45 pm
#55
Grumpy Know-it-all
Joined: Jul 2010
Location: Calgary, Alberta
Posts: 8,928
Jun 30th 2012, 10:53 pm
#56
Grumpy Know-it-all
Joined: Jul 2010
Location: Calgary, Alberta
Posts: 8,928
Re: Canada recession looming?
More of a regional phenoma I think, personally I think there will be some sort of bubble bursting, because (a) tougher immigration rules and (b) the Chinese economy is in trouble now and that will slow down investment in property in Vancouver and Toronto. I don't think that will happen in Alberta though. Too much demand, plus property here isn't really 'investable' in, the condo market is really small.
Jul 1st 2012, 12:37 am
#57
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 14,227
Re: Canada recession looming?
So you think that people who do jobs that you, perhaps, feel are beneath you, should not get a remuneration that reflects the unattractiveness of the job. I hope you are comfortable, sitting on your arse in your cubicle, when other people are removing your trash, fighting fires, taking care of the sick, cleaning-up after your, no doubt perfect, children in their school. What an obnoxious twit!
Jul 1st 2012, 12:37 am
#58
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 14,227
Re: Canada recession looming?
More of a regional phenoma I think, personally I think there will be some sort of bubble bursting, because (a) tougher immigration rules and (b) the Chinese economy is in trouble now and that will slow down investment in property in Vancouver and Toronto. I don't think that will happen in Alberta though. Too much demand, plus property here isn't really 'investable' in, the condo market is really small.
But you have a point about chinese people - but even in Vancouver that's localized to a few specific areas.
Jul 1st 2012, 1:58 am
#59
slanderer of the innocent
Joined: Dec 2008
Location: Vancouver, BC
Posts: 6,695
Re: Canada recession looming?
Interesting thoughts, Alan.
According to The Economist, Canadian house prices are 75% overvalued against rents, which is the highest in the OECD. That figure is for the whole of Canada, it's likely to be worse for places like Toronto and Vancouver.
My own personal experience backs this up. In my neck of the woods (outer Toronto suburbs) a family home can be rented for 50% of the mortgage payments on an equivalent home in the same area. This is at current low interest rates - imagine how much out of whack it would be if interest rates went up...
The price/rent ratio is usually seen as an excellent indicator of property 'fair value'. It will have to come down from its amazing 75% overvaluation at some point. So basically you're saying that the government will print money to stoke inflation on purpose, therefore pushing up the cost of living tremendously? That could work, as rents would be pushed up as well, which would bring the price/rent ratio back to normal.
According to The Economist, Canadian house prices are 75% overvalued against rents, which is the highest in the OECD. That figure is for the whole of Canada, it's likely to be worse for places like Toronto and Vancouver.
My own personal experience backs this up. In my neck of the woods (outer Toronto suburbs) a family home can be rented for 50% of the mortgage payments on an equivalent home in the same area. This is at current low interest rates - imagine how much out of whack it would be if interest rates went up...
The price/rent ratio is usually seen as an excellent indicator of property 'fair value'. It will have to come down from its amazing 75% overvaluation at some point. So basically you're saying that the government will print money to stoke inflation on purpose, therefore pushing up the cost of living tremendously? That could work, as rents would be pushed up as well, which would bring the price/rent ratio back to normal.
Rents are all over the place in my area - some low, some high, etc. for the same product.
We recently rented a basement suite and had far more interest than we were expecting, considering the price. Am now thinking we should have put the price up.
It seems like there is a lot of demand for decent rentals in my area of Burnaby but not a lot of choice...there's a 2 bed basement suite renting for $2K a month not far from us. THat's a pretty decent whack off a mortgage.
Jul 1st 2012, 5:59 am
#60
Grumpy Know-it-all
Joined: Jul 2010
Location: Calgary, Alberta
Posts: 8,928
Re: Canada recession looming?
It has to be said with recessions and also movements in property prices a lot of it is more about perception than reality. If people are worried, they're less likely to buy, which I think is another reason there are going to be problems in Vancouver and Toronto. Certainly is a major issue in the US and Europe.
"Consumer confidence" is the fluffy metric used.
"Consumer confidence" is the fluffy metric used.