GarryP

Well actually I doubt they are quite a bereft as they make out. And also the EU aren't mugs, they are an ideologically bound committee. That's both problem and opportunity.

There are already negotiations, and you can bet that most stuff will be sorted out prior to any article 50. The Juncker position isn't practical, and the various national ministers know it.

Personally, I think that leaving will be held as a "Get out of Jail Free" card - to be deployed when the UK wants to - almost certainly as the coup de grâce at the collapse of the EU. Forget 2 years, it will take 2 mins to implement (since the negotiations will be done) and will probably accompany an effective EU banking collapse associated with GFC II.

Although it's not a path that I would have taken, that's for certain, the loosening of ties with something that's broken is no bad thing if done over a period of years.

Things might well get very interesting on the run up to the french presidential election, with the far right offering a referendum. If france voted out too - well brussels might as well move to Berlin and admit the reality. My guess is that threat would force the EU ideologs into practical change.

Swerv-o

There's certainly a fair bit of f**kwittery going on. The fact that the only official ministerial statement we've had after more than 2 months turns out to be an 'opinion' and not actual government policy tells us all that we need to know. They really haven't got a bloody clue what to do.

The problem with this is that it is generating huge levels of uncertainty. Business and the economy are holding together for the moment, but I'm wondering how long this is likely to last given it is becoming ever clearer that HMG has no ideas.

I also notice that May refuses to be interviewed on the matter - instead choosing to release the tiny bits of information through lackeys. She's also been quick to discount any of the 'solutions' that the three brexiteers have postulated, describing them as opinions. I suspect that May was expecting a warmer welcome at the G20 than she received - and the communique from the Japanese was probably something of a wake up and smell the coffee moment.

It wouldn't surprise me if she is secretly hoping that the Supreme Court somehow nix this so she can put her hands up and say "I tried, but the law is the law..."


S

GarryP

Think of it like a risk tree

1. What's the probability of another GFC, in the next ten years say?
   
   Given the failure to actually address the issues, together with china being inflated on debt, I think we can put that at 90%.
   .
2. What's the probability that the EU collapses with another GFC?
   
   Given the total failure to address the issues of the last one, from the PIIGS, to immigrants, to national inequalities, well that's got to be 80% too.
   .
3. What's the probability that the UK would be better off out, in the event of an EU collapse?
   
   100%, no question.
   
   0.9 x 0.8 x 1.0 = 72% chance of GOOJF being a plus.

The way I see it is there is NO way May will leave the EU unless it's in the UK's interest to do so. There are too many ways she can avoid it, right upto and including "it was advisory". Thus I think most businesses would also see that that was the case. However, arranging things such that you could weigh anchor and set sail at a moments notice, what with the above, is a good move. It's like being tied up at a quay sat underneath a volcano that's smoking - the shorter the timeline till you can be gone, the better.

And in addition, there is the possibility that the threat will actually be enough to get the EU to start being realistic (though I think it will take france to really push that home).

Providing business knows that they ain't leaving unless the mountain is about to blow, they can use it, chesswise, for quite a lot. The only risk is that a real 'leaver' gets power - and that seems unlikely at the moment.

OzTennis

Probably 43.0089763% of the square root of the cosine of opinions actually come to pass.

In the last few days:

David Davis's statement to the Commons on the way ahead was extremely bald and vague because he doesn't know the way ahead to be honest. His points style system has been kicked into touch and his desire to completely leave the single market will not come to pass as deals are negotiated with the EU.

Cambridge has slipped from its perennial #1 position as the world's premier university (dropped to 3 amid concerns post Brexit of funding, a lot of which comes from European companies and private benefactors, will they be able to attract the cream of the world's students and staff etc).

There has been a huge inflow of foreign money to buy up property all over the UK and not just London in the wake of the weaker pound. I bet the Leavers didn't envisage an influx of foreign money and more foreign ownership of houses as a consequence.

Theresa May has found at the G20 summit that the world isn't queueing up to do new deals with the UK.

Steven Ciobo introduces a more cautious tone to the previous hint of a new bilateral deal between Australia and the UK. He told Liam Fox that such a deal will come AFTER Australia renegotiates with the EU post Brexit.

Beoz

Really. That would mean investors? Would you invest in a place where the economy is apparently going to nose dive?

Did foreign investors hit the US after their property crash following the GFC? No they stayed well clear for a long time.

GarryP

I don't often agree with your logic, but in this case ....

Quite a few have taken advantage of the upheaval to grab and invest - not least of which the japanese buying ARM. There's also talk of people going after BT.

As I said, I don't think many in the investment and business world think Brexit will happen this side of a crash.

astera

They have truly solid people representing their position. I cannot say the same about us.

As for ideology we're the ones fixated on some imaginary hatred of being Europeans ourselves and constantly trying to pretend that we're from some other, imaginary continent.

No, there aren't. The Juncker position is actually ideal as nobody needs to do anything until the UK officially presses the self-destruct button. I cannot think of a better position to be in from a negotiating standpoint.

UK politicians might be making inroads here and there to get some feedback, but all they are going to hear is that there is ZERO chance of full market access if they leave. And rightly so. All this hype about a Canada-based-model is a joke as their deal was primarily about physical goods whereas services make up 4/5 of the UK economy. Time for a wake-up call.

This makes no sense, as investments and the economy will be taking a beating each and every day until certainty is restored to the current political situation. The EU will not fall apart, and neither will the Euro, this is just wishful thinking by the haters who want to see everything around them go into flames.

OzTennis

Of course you know best; read this and tell me it's a lie (see the headline Brexit sparks overseas spending spree):

Brexit sparks overseas spending spree in London property - BBC News

astera

That's because the Pound took a beating after the referendum results were announced. Just imagine what will happen when article 50 is triggered and the Pound goes into meltdown.

Of course this all favours foreigners who get to buy property cheaper. Pity that English folk trying to purchase something nice in Spain for instance are in a completely opposite situation...

Beoz

Calm down sport.

Your newsflash is contradicted elsewhere.

http://www.theweek.co.uk/house-prices/61987/house-prices-most-profitable-cities-to-invest-in-student-property

OzTennis

UK housing market settles down post-Brexit, says Rics - BBC News

https://www.theguardian.com/money/20...rics-surveyors

Confidence returns to the UK's jittery post-Brexit housing market

I actually expected you to play the 'reported by the BBC, that's biased' card. The above covers all points of view and there seems to be agreement that there has been an influx of foreign investment in property and the housing market has settled down a bit post Brexit.

Beoz

Calm down sport. Keep the emotions out of it.

The bottom line is UK property has taken a small hit.

No serious investor who is after growth is going to buy into the UK if they believe your train of thought that the UK is economically doomed.

They will invest elsewhere.

OzTennis

I state a fact (foreigners have been buying more property post Brexit), you query it, I quote 3 sources and you tell me to calm down and explain why this shouldn't be happening. Do you agree that some people make what could turn out to be wrong investment decisions sometimes? I seem to remember you bragging about how much further your A$'s went in the UK.

Beoz

Now it gets interesting. So lets roll with your idea that foreign investors are buying up big time in the UK, which means one of 2 things. (One of which you have alluded to already)

1. Brexit has caused a blip in the strength of the pound, but long term economic, currency and property signs are good and these foreign investors don't see any long term UK issues.

Or

2. All these foreign investors are dumb arses and have no idea what they are doing? You have already stated as much.

Beoz

Well, looks like the EU are in damage control.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/european-parliamentarians-urge-australia-to-put-planned-free-trade-talks-with-britain-on-ice-20160908-grcbz7.html