Price of gas update...
#3332
Re: Price of gas update...
A report from Goldman Sachs today predicts that the oil glut is going to last fifteen years and could see oil selling at $20/barrel.
Last edited by Pulaski; Sep 17th 2015 at 3:17 pm.
#3333
Re: Price of gas update...
I still remember being told that there would be no oil past 2020 in school (I'm not suggesting btw that depletion of the worlds oil reserves is not happening - merely that their estimations seem a little off.)
#3334
Re: Price of gas update...
IIRC about 7-8 years ago an economist wrote that the end of the "oil age" would be marked not by scarcity and prices of $200+/barrel but by a collapse in the price of oil and oil fields not being economic to develop. It looks like he might be right.
#3335
Re: Price of gas update...
Yeah, I remember that. I don't think anyone is prepared to predict when oil will run out now. The last I heard was that Venezuela has more oil reserves than Saudi Arabia, and there is probably more oil under Sussex than there was in the North Sea.
IIRC about 7-8 years ago an economist wrote that the end of the "oil age" would be marked not by scarcity and prices of $200+/barrel but by a collapse in the price of oil and oil fields not being economic to develop. It looks like he might be right.
IIRC about 7-8 years ago an economist wrote that the end of the "oil age" would be marked not by scarcity and prices of $200+/barrel but by a collapse in the price of oil and oil fields not being economic to develop. It looks like he might be right.
#3336
Re: Price of gas update...
Every year, analysts write that the oil price will go up, down or stay the same. Many of them tend to under-react to changes, then over-react to changes.
While no-one can truly predict what the oil price will do, it seems unlikely that oil will sit at $20/bbl for fifteen years. This is because unconventionals (mostly shale oil and gas) are both quicker to develop and quicker to decline than offshore conventionals. This means that the feedback between oil price and supply should be quicker now than in the past.
While no-one can truly predict what the oil price will do, it seems unlikely that oil will sit at $20/bbl for fifteen years. This is because unconventionals (mostly shale oil and gas) are both quicker to develop and quicker to decline than offshore conventionals. This means that the feedback between oil price and supply should be quicker now than in the past.
#3337
Re: Price of gas update...
To be fair to Goldman they aren't predicting a prolonged period of $20, just raising the spectre of it. I wonder why, what do they gain.
Saudi are estimated to be burning through more that $12bn a month. Their cash balance was around $700bn. They can weather this for a while, but 95% of their economy is driven by oil revenues.
U.S. Production has started to turn now - people are focusing on balance sheet strength rather than production growth.
Oh, I've just seen the GS prediction has a <50% probability of $20 attached to it. Headline grabbing. Again, why?
Saudi are estimated to be burning through more that $12bn a month. Their cash balance was around $700bn. They can weather this for a while, but 95% of their economy is driven by oil revenues.
U.S. Production has started to turn now - people are focusing on balance sheet strength rather than production growth.
Oh, I've just seen the GS prediction has a <50% probability of $20 attached to it. Headline grabbing. Again, why?
#3338
Re: Price of gas update...
Neither of these comments are in any way consistent with the "end of oil" coming when the price is too low to develop anything. The only way that would happen is discovering a cheap method to create synthetic oil.
#3339
Re: Price of gas update...
To be fair to Goldman they aren't predicting a prolonged period of $20, just raising the spectre of it. I wonder why, what do they gain.
Saudi are estimated to be burning through more that $12bn a month. Their cash balance was around $700bn. They can weather this for a while, but 95% of their economy is driven by oil revenues.
U.S. Production has started to turn now - people are focusing on balance sheet strength rather than production growth.
Oh, I've just seen the GS prediction has a <50% probability of $20 attached to it. Headline grabbing. Again, why?
Saudi are estimated to be burning through more that $12bn a month. Their cash balance was around $700bn. They can weather this for a while, but 95% of their economy is driven by oil revenues.
U.S. Production has started to turn now - people are focusing on balance sheet strength rather than production growth.
Oh, I've just seen the GS prediction has a <50% probability of $20 attached to it. Headline grabbing. Again, why?
#3341
#3342
Account Closed
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 0
Re: Price of gas update...
It went back up to 1.11/liter for today, they simply cannot make up their mind. Up and down up and down.