sir_eccles

Reading about the English"fans" in Marseille today, I suppose it is possible that Europe might vote to kick us out.

BritInParis

We're already members of the EEA separately to the EU. The referendum only gives the government a mandate for us to leave the EU and even then it is not legally binding on Parliament. They could choose to ignore the result.

Pulaski

That would be interesting! If they do that, I foresee a vote of "no confidence", and a general election. ..... Resulting in a large swing to the UKIP, with potentially enough UKIP seats to form a government with the Eurosceptic Conservatives.

amideislas

Most brexiters want to delay invoking article 50 as long as possible. Two years isn't enough negotiating time, particularly considering that the EU will have the upper hand in every aspect.

In the mean time, the uncertainty during that period will likely put a stop to most inward investment, property sales will slow to a snail's pace, unemployment will rise, and obviously, the pound will be valued at low levels not seen in generations, which will cause rapid inflation.

The more likely result is widespread anger against the (conservative) establishment and anyone remotely connected to brexit, which of course will result in political turmoil...

And that certainly won't play into UKIPs favour. Rather more likely, Labour or the liberals in general.

I've been saying for a while now that a vote for brexit is effectively, a vote for Labour.

We shall see ...

mrken30

I see the exchange rate fell to $1.38 on Feb 26. I wonder how far it will fall on a Brexit. From my knowledge of the exchange rate it rarely falls below $1.40. As far as I remember it has not been below $1.30.

Pulaski

Your memory is waaay off. The GBP/USD rate fell to $1.04, back in 1985.

MidAtlantic

You are almost right, except for a time in 1984/85 when, at its lowest, it got down to 1.0438

Zoom on historical exchange rates graph

mrken30

I was still at school so I had more interesting things going on than exchange rates. That is a long time ago, was it caused by the ERM?

Pulaski

The final sharp drop was mostly speculation, similar to the recent collapse in the price of oil, as evidenced by the equally sharp bounc back upwards to $1.30. If there is a sharp drop in the value of sterling after the Brexit vote, I am certain it will also be a short term phenomenon.

The ERM-created sterling crisis was in 1992, IIRC. And sterling crashing out of the ERM was almost immediately beneficial to Britain, as will be Brexit, assuming enough people vote the right way.

mrken30

Maybe a good time to buy some sterling

scot47

Will we see it return to its rightful level of £1 = US$4.80 ? Not this side of Armagedon !

SultanOfSwing

What are the chances of that happening in August? I've got some money coming to me from my mum's estate and it'd be handy to have a favourable exchange rate at the time.

Yeah, I know that's horrible, but we can use every extra dollar we can get.

mrken30

You're lucky if it gets any where near $1.65 at the moment.

SultanOfSwing

I know. $1.41 right now, which would be great if we were changing money into Pounds but a bit shit going the other way.

sir_eccles

Saw this interesting take on the issue. Apparently the question is not as clear as some would wish or hope.

https://medium.com/@WhiteWednesday/e...3f0#.5ak8ohv3n