BritInParis

We're already in the EEA. The confusion lies in politicians on both sides spinning like mad to make you believe the referendum is about choosing whether or not to leave the single market when it's solely about our EU membership. The two coexist in parallel but are separate.

The referendum only gives the government the mandate for us leave the EU, not the single market, and therefore if the country was to vote Brexit then the government simply negotiates for the UK to rejoin EFTA to retain our place within the EEA.

For my money this would be the best scenario as it would permit the UK to retain access to the single market and the four freedoms (movement of goods, capital, services and people) but we would be free again to conduct our own free trade agreements with countries outside the EU and we would regain control over a number of areas which are currently within Brussels' purview e.g. the Common Agriculture and Fisheries Policy, Common Foreign and Security Policy and Justice and Home Affairs.

This would be the quickest and simplest way of doing it. The longer way would be to do what Switzerland did and join EFTA but not sign the EEA Agreement and instead negotiate a series of bilateral treaties with the EU in regards to which areas of the single market we would want to continue to be a part of and those which we wouldn't (i.e. freedom of movement of people).

mrken30

I think that is what you should see

BritInParis

The EEA was formed after the EU to allow those countries in EFTA who were unwilling to join the EU access to the single market, e.g. Norway. All members of the EEA are either members of the EU or EFTA. If the UK was to leave the EU then it's unclear whether that would also automatically lead to our exit from the EEA as well as they are separate agreements but I suspect we would need to rejoin EFTA in order to continue to be a member of the EEA.

The question on the ballot is 'Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?' not 'leave the EEA/single market/pull up the drawbridge and stick two fingers up to Juncker and Merkel?'. The government and every major party is in favour of 'Remain' so if the vote was to go then there's absolutely nothing to stop the UK from remaining within the single market. In fact there would be no mandate to withdraw us from it. The debate on the actual question is not the one we are having.

mrken30

So voting to leave the EU does not limit freedom of movement of people and goods. I believe the EEA still has rules that need to be followed. So what exactly does staying or leaving change. There is just too much emphasis on immigration from the leavers and the consequences of leaving a single market from the remains.

Giantaxe

Given that 40% of Brexiters state that immigration is the most important issue to them, would a post-Brexit government be able to push through membership of EFTA and its attendant free movement provision? It seems pretty clear, regardless of what the vote is actually about, many are voting in the belief that a Brexit will address immigration from EU countries. And, given some of the statements I've seen, that belief extends to at least a few members of the current government.

Right, which is why the whole thing seems particularly bizarre from this distance at least.

BritInParis

If we opted to remain within the EEA by other means? Some fairly serious repatriation of power from Brussels on certain issues (see previous post), less EU law to implement and less financial contributions to make but the single market, the most important bit, would remain more or less as it is now.

The referendum is not legally binding. For all the talk of it being "the British people who will decide" next week the constitution of the UK means that Parliament is sovereign, they are the ones who will have to vote after the referendum on what to do and the Prime Minister, most of the Cabinet and the vast majority of MPs from all parties are pro-Remain and will be doing their damnedest to maintain the status quo. Just because Messers Gove and Johnson want us to leave the single market doesn't mean we have to or will. Again we're not debating the actual question.

It's pretty bizarre from here as well!

Giantaxe

Do you think Cameron would survive (or perhaps choose to survive) a leave vote? Isn't it likely he would resign and a more stridently anti-immigration faction take control of the government?

mrken30

I thought the rumor was that Norway paid more than the UK to trade in Europe. Who knows what is true anymore.

A lot of EU legislation makes sense and may not have happened if it was just left up to the UK.

BritInParis

For all his bluster I suspect his position would be untenable despite that even some Brexiteers want him to remain as leader for the time being. The Conservative Party has torn itself apart over this. Who's talking about the splits in Labour any more?

No, Norway pays a lot less in absolute terms and less per capita. If the UK were to be a part of the EEA on similar terms we would also pay less.

Research Briefings - Leaving the EU

dc koop

Obviously Cameron would resign if the LEAVE vote passed. Who'd want to deal with all the issues and headaches that would crop up afterwards?

I imagine his attitude would be "They've made their bed now let em get on with it"

I would also imagine that there will be some long lasting feelings of intense divisiveness amongst the British people.

How do the Scots feel about it for example? If the majority of Scots favour remaining in the EU then the Scots Nats would probably push for another referendum on remaining as part of the UK

Nutmegger

An interesting opinion piece from today's NYT:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/19/op...e-england.html

steveq

The referendum result, if its for "Leave" doesn't mean that article 50 has to be invoked that second. As BiP says, Parliament is supreme. The serious negotiating then begins.

BEVS

I do wish this message would get out there. Most people we know back in the UK do seem to believe that this referendum is about exactly the above and that a leave vote will bring about instant stop signs.

Actually. I wish BiPs posts were out there. Very informative.

yellowroom

the message (Brexit would not significantly affect immigration) is out there, however it's a different matter on whether people hear it above all the other shouting going on.

I think most people are now at the stage of only seeing/hearing information that reinforces their point of view, and are sick to death of the whole thing. Roll on Thursday and then maybe we can move on whichever way the country votes.

mrken30

I am still unsure whether the UK would join the EEA or just go off on its own and use WTO agreements. Does Brexit mean pulling out of everything Europe?