Sterling/Euro

Old May 27th 2012, 3:30 am
  #166  
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Default Re: Sterling/Euro

I did advise holding euros in a German bank but they have massive amounts of loans to SPain and Greece which will lose value if they get out of the Euro, so complete mess whichever way things go. Convert all the individual bonds into euro-zone bonds and let the ECB print its way out of trouble, seems most likely, but at the same time all governments will have to move to running a budget surplus to avoid hyper-inflation - so you can expect some serious taxation to do that!
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Old May 27th 2012, 3:35 am
  #167  
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Default Re: Sterling/Euro

Lloyds are even starting to hedge their bets. This could get serious!

Lloyd's 'has plans for euro collapse'
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Old May 27th 2012, 3:40 am
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Default Re: Sterling/Euro

It's by no means unaminous, but certain economists believe that the ultimate result of bail-outs and QE (in any country) will be to create a crack-up boom. Suddenly all available cash will leave bank accounts and head into assets like land and housing. There will be sudden hyper-inflation and money will become valueless.
Still, I for one trust our politicans and banking leaders, so I'm sure this couldn't happen,
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Old May 27th 2012, 3:52 am
  #169  
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Default Re: Sterling/Euro

Read Ambrose Evans Pritchard in todays Telegraph http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...led-Spain.html

if you really want to scare yourselves.

It does look as though it is nearing the much vaunted EndGame. Although events are panning out much as predicted, even I had not anticipated the sheer mind numbing crass blind stupidity of the political classes.
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Old May 27th 2012, 4:01 am
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Default Re: Sterling/Euro

Originally Posted by bigglesworth
Read Ambrose Evans Pritchard in todays Telegraph http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...led-Spain.html

if you really want to scare yourselves.
Ambrose does change his mind on a regular basis though...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...-the-euro.html

and the Telegraph is hedging bets itself - possible world rally once Greece leaves the Euro

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...reek-exit.html


Hmmmm, I think Ambrose has covered all bases there..To be fair I'd like to see the commentator who could predict with 100% accuracy what will really happen..
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Old May 27th 2012, 4:12 am
  #171  
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Default Re: Sterling/Euro

Yes the ITP article was a rare moment of optimism for us AEP watchers. It is almost as though he is trying to foster a reputation for doom mongering!

Certainly if one predicts enough disasters, one will eventually occur.

But even Peter crying wolf was eventually right, although much good it did him.

I sincerely hope AEP (and I) are proved wrong. In the short term at least, the fallout is likely to be catastrophic for many.
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Old May 27th 2012, 4:53 am
  #172  
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Default Re: Sterling/Euro

Originally Posted by bigglesworth
Yes the ITP article was a rare moment of optimism for us AEP watchers. It is almost as though he is trying to foster a reputation for doom mongering!

Certainly if one predicts enough disasters, one will eventually occur.

But even Peter crying wolf was eventually right, although much good it did him.

I sincerely hope AEP (and I) are proved wrong. In the short term at least, the fallout is likely to be catastrophic for many.
AEP, the 'cut and paste' commentator, has been predicting the end of the EMU for 20 years and has been persistently wrong for 20 years.

But he is exactly what the Telegraph wants, an ace Euro-sceptic to appease the right wing Conservatives who support the paper.

He has done well from his writing, but if you look at some of his less publicised stuff, he doesn't even believe it himself, and freely admits it when he thinks his bosses aren't looking, before going back to his copying and pasting, a lot of it from Der Spiegel and other German newspapers.

Having said that, I quite enjoy his writing, and the comments that follow are always hilarious.
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Old May 27th 2012, 9:33 am
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Default Re: Sterling/Euro

Originally Posted by HBG
AEP, the 'cut and paste' commentator, has been predicting the end of the EMU for 20 years and has been persistently wrong for 20 years.

But he is exactly what the Telegraph wants, an ace Euro-sceptic to appease the right wing Conservatives who support the paper.

He has done well from his writing, but if you look at some of his less publicised stuff, he doesn't even believe it himself, and freely admits it when he thinks his bosses aren't looking, before going back to his copying and pasting, a lot of it from Der Spiegel and other German newspapers.

Having said that, I quite enjoy his writing, and the comments that follow are always hilarious.
I don't hold any hat for him - he usually seems to pick whichever horse he thinks will come first.

BUT as for EMU (BTW how is Rod Hull?).....

Perhaps we should rename it the Norwegian Blue?
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Old May 27th 2012, 6:19 pm
  #174  
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Default Re: Sterling/Euro

Baldrick: "What I want to know, sir, is, before there was a Euro there were lots of different types of money that different people used. And now there's only one type of money that the foreign people use. And what I want to know is, how did we get from one state of affairs to the other state of affairs"

Blackadder: "Baldrick. Do you mean, how did the Euro start?"

Baldrick: "Yes, sir"

Blackadder: "Well, you see Baldrick, back in the 1980s there were many different countries all running their own finances and using different types of money. On one side you had the major economies of France, Belgium,Holland and Germany, and on the other, the weaker nations of Spain, Greece, Ireland, Italy and Portugal. They got together and decided that it would be much easier for everyone if they could all use the same money, have one Central Bank, and belong to one large club where everyone would be happy. This meant that there could never be a situation whereby financial meltdown would lead to social unrest, wars and crises".

Baldrick: "But this is sort of a crisis, isn't it, sir?".

Blackadder: "That's right, Baldrick. You see, there was only one slight flaw with the plan".

Baldrick: "What was that then, sir?"

Blackadder: "It was bollocks".


Last edited by missile; May 27th 2012 at 6:26 pm.
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Old May 27th 2012, 6:37 pm
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Default Re: Sterling/Euro

Originally Posted by missile
Baldrick: "What I want to know, sir, is, before there was a Euro there were lots of different types of money that different people used. And now there's only one type of money that the foreign people use. And what I want to know is, how did we get from one state of affairs to the other state of affairs"

Blackadder: "Baldrick. Do you mean, how did the Euro start?"

Baldrick: "Yes, sir"

Blackadder: "Well, you see Baldrick, back in the 1980s there were many different countries all running their own finances and using different types of money. On one side you had the major economies of France, Belgium,Holland and Germany, and on the other, the weaker nations of Spain, Greece, Ireland, Italy and Portugal. They got together and decided that it would be much easier for everyone if they could all use the same money, have one Central Bank, and belong to one large club where everyone would be happy. This meant that there could never be a situation whereby financial meltdown would lead to social unrest, wars and crises".

Baldrick: "But this is sort of a crisis, isn't it, sir?".

Blackadder: "That's right, Baldrick. You see, there was only one slight flaw with the plan".

Baldrick: "What was that then, sir?"

Blackadder: "It was bollocks".

http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x...ckadder460.jpg
Wonderful!!!!
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Old May 27th 2012, 7:29 pm
  #176  
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Default Re: Sterling/Euro

Originally Posted by Vanya
Wonderful!!!!
....and a pretty fair summing up.

How any one in their right minds could ever have believed it had a snowball in hells chance of succeeding has always been way beyond my comprehension.

I've always believed that misguided ulterior motives led them to try and use it as a driving force towards their own wishful ends
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Old May 27th 2012, 7:34 pm
  #177  
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Default Re: Sterling/Euro

Angela has a cunning plan to solve the crisis

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...-a-835295.html

Although it does look like the Germans are fully prepared to see Greece leave..

Merkel is determined to reject both Hollande's call for euro bonds and his proposal to allow direct lending by the ECB. The monetary watchdogs, she argues, would already do everything necessary to stabilize the euro, and thus preserve their high-paying jobs in Frankfurt's Euro Tower.

There is something to this. The ECB has signaled internally that, if it becomes necessary (if Greece withdraws from the euro, for example), it will buy up the bonds of other ailing countries once again. With a view toward Hollande's calls for more growth incentives, the Germans, for their part, are trying to seem more conciliatory. They are prepared to increase the capital of the European Investment Bank (EIB) to €10 billion, which would bring Germany's share to €1.6 billion.

They also want to yield to the French drive to use the money in the European Structural Funds in a more growth-friendly manner and float so-called project bonds. This would involve the EU countries and private investors raising funds together to pay for things like cross-border infrastructure projects. Merkel isn't hostile to the idea.
It may be the case though that the Germans are doing just enough to claim "but we tried to save the Euro"...
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Old May 27th 2012, 7:52 pm
  #178  
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Default Re: Sterling/Euro

The Euro was a sensible solution to allow Europe to compete with other major trading nations, but it became too successful. It was aimed for rough parity with the US Dollar but rose way beyond that, and they couldn't bring it down when the Chinese piled into the currency.

The cracks started to appear when the currency became uncompetitive at something 1.60 Dollars to the Euro, an impossible level.

And when the recession started five years ago, austerity became a necessity, everywhere, but the Latin block in the Eurozone fought it by not paying their taxes.

The lady in charge of the IMF summed it up nicely when she told Greece they could solve their debt problem by paying their taxes,

You can't compare Spain with Greece, it is a much bigger and more important country, but they have a similar problem with people not paying their taxes.

Last edited by HBG; May 27th 2012 at 8:06 pm.
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Old May 27th 2012, 8:57 pm
  #179  
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Default Re: Sterling/Euro

"Too successful" ?
Like the Titanic presumably.
The underlying problem is that it is a Fixed Exchange Rate system and
NOT a single currency.

The Euro-loonies hoped (and still do hope) that when it became/becomes unsustainable, and collapsed/collapses around our ears that the resulting mayhem would persuade the suffering populations of Europe to renounce their national controls of taxes and fiscal policy without the awful inconvenience of a vote or (heaven forbid) a referendum.
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Old May 28th 2012, 1:18 am
  #180  
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Default Re: Sterling/Euro

Originally Posted by teuchterpete
We have discussed a lot of things, but I still cannot see why the Euro should fall in value if it is being used as the major currency in Germany. Unless of course somebody knows better!
Obviously you were not a German stamp collector or you might know better!

Have you not heard about millions of marks being required for a loaf of bread or to send a letter.

Of course you have and what goes round can equally well come round.

Jim
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