Sterling/Euro

Old May 8th 2012, 11:34 am
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Default Sterling/Euro

Just read this on the BBC news site. Good news for us but I feel very sorry for the Greeks and Spanish.

Chris Towner, at specialist foreign currency firm HiFX, predicted that the pound should strengthen further.

"It is at very tempting levels, but sterling is still undervalued against the euro," he said.

"It should reach 1 euro 27, or 1 euro 28, in the coming months."

Richard Driver, at Caxton FX, said the pound should rise further in the coming months.

"We've seen sterling climb this year as the european debt crisis has come to a head."

"Sterling has a pretty decent safe-haven status - we think it will reach 1 euro 30 by this autumn."
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Old May 8th 2012, 12:22 pm
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Default Re: Sterling/Euro

I regularly study the state of the Eurozone and the Euro because I have to, it reflecting directly on my income here is Spain. Until this weekend I believed the Euro would survive, but now I'm not so sure.

France is now a socialist country and Greece is teetering on the brink of God knows what. Germany has led the fight to preserve the Euro because of its exports to other European countries, but seems to have turned its considerable export potential towards China and the US in recent times, and Russia too.

German voters will not support another Greek bailout, and nor will the UK, and without the next bailout Greece will be bankrupt and will have to return to the Drachma.

If that sets off a domino effect across the Eurozone, the pound Sterling might be the main benefactor, but it's not certain because 60% of our exports also go to the Eurozone and the UK would not want to be paid in Drachmas or Pesetas; and the BoE would have to oil up the printing presses even more to bring down the pound.

I can't see a happy end in sight.
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Old May 8th 2012, 12:45 pm
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Default Re: Sterling/Euro

There are winners and losers. The way things are heading it seems soon there will be only losers? I have quite a bit of cash in euros and I am a bit alarmed, no idea what I should do.
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Old May 8th 2012, 1:37 pm
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Default Re: Sterling/Euro

Originally Posted by missile
There are winners and losers. The way things are heading it seems soon there will be only losers? I have quite a bit of cash in euros and I am a bit alarmed, no idea what I should do.
In light of current economic news, the Euro isn't a particularly safe place to have a lot of cash at the moment. People are making a hell of a lot of money in forex right now. Volatility is your friend :-)
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Old May 8th 2012, 2:01 pm
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Default Re: Sterling/Euro

I've been seeing these kind of predictions about sterling for well over a year now, and it has edged up somewhat in recent weeks, but I'm not convinced that we will see 1.30 by the autumn.

It is an uncertain time though, no mistake. Normally I transfer enough each Summer from sterling to euros to meet our living expenses for the following year, but this year I think I will split it into two, both to avoid the risk of having any more than necessary in the Spanish bank account, but if the predictions about sterling are right then I might benefit by waiting to transfer the rest.
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Old May 8th 2012, 5:43 pm
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Default Re: Sterling/Euro

Originally Posted by HBG
I regularly study the state of the Eurozone and the Euro because I have to, it reflecting directly on my income here is Spain. Until this weekend I believed the Euro would survive, but now I'm not so sure.

France is now a socialist country and Greece is teetering on the brink of God knows what. Germany has led the fight to preserve the Euro because of its exports to other European countries, but seems to have turned its considerable export potential towards China and the US in recent times, and Russia too.

German voters will not support another Greek bailout, and nor will the UK, and without the next bailout Greece will be bankrupt and will have to return to the Drachma.

If that sets off a domino effect across the Eurozone, the pound Sterling might be the main benefactor, but it's not certain because 60% of our exports also go to the Eurozone and the UK would not want to be paid in Drachmas or Pesetas; and the BoE would have to oil up the printing presses even more to bring down the pound.

I can't see a happy end in sight.
The Greeks have until this weekend to vote through new austerity measures, or no more bailout cash, as they have no government, I can't see how this can possibly happen, in that case they will default, and, almost certainly, have to leave the Eurozone. The Eurozone crisis is back in an even bigger way with the results of the two elections over the weekend.
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Old May 8th 2012, 7:22 pm
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Default Re: Sterling/Euro

Of course there is always the possibility that Germany leaves the Euro instead...
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Old May 8th 2012, 9:30 pm
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Default Re: Sterling/Euro

Germany can't afford to leave the Euro, the Deutschmark would rise too high and make their exports unaffordable, anywhere in the world. They would benefit from a devalued Euro, and Greece being thrown out of it would guarantee that.
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Old May 8th 2012, 9:56 pm
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Default Re: Sterling/Euro

Originally Posted by HBG
Germany can't afford to leave the Euro, the Deutschmark would rise too high and make their exports unaffordable, anywhere in the world. They would benefit from a devalued Euro, and Greece being thrown out of it would guarantee that.
They should all leave the euro

Chaos, confusion and the financial world would plummet, even the talking about it is sending the stock markets spiralling. But I get the feeling that if/when Greece leaves, others will follow????????????

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Last edited by jojojojojo; May 8th 2012 at 10:03 pm.
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Old May 9th 2012, 5:23 am
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Default Re: Sterling/Euro

£1 = €1.24 at the moment and $1.6.

An interview last night with some Greek chap basically said they (Greece) will not take the steps needed to stay in the Euro.
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Old May 9th 2012, 6:22 am
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Default Re: Sterling/Euro

Originally Posted by jojojojojo
They should all leave the euro

Chaos, confusion and the financial world would plummet, even the talking about it is sending the stock markets spiralling. But I get the feeling that if/when Greece leaves, others will follow????????????

Jo xxx
Germany, France and Holland all have a lot invested in the Euro - Politically and fiscally. The last thing they want is for Greece to pave an exit, fearing a mass exodus, and leaving them standing naked in a hailstorm.

I reckon they simply won't let Greece exit, even if Greece wants to. And of course, we'll end up paying for it. And the next one... and the next one...

Which is better? Allowing the Eurozone to break up and cause chaos? ..or eternal Eurozone recession?
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Old May 9th 2012, 6:34 am
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Default Re: Sterling/Euro

Originally Posted by amideislas
Germany, France and Holland all have a lot invested in the Euro - Politically and fiscally. The last thing they want is for Greece to pave an exit, fearing a mass exodus, and leaving them standing naked in a hailstorm.

I reckon they simply won't let Greece exit, even if Greece wants to. And of course, we'll end up paying for it. And the next one... and the next one...

Which is better? Allowing the Eurozone to break up and cause chaos? ..or eternal Eurozone recession?
I agree with you, the trouble is doesnt that that remove democracy??? Something we value in the west???


Jo xxx
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Old May 9th 2012, 6:50 am
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Default Re: Sterling/Euro

Greece is one of the largest users of EU support whilst one of the smallest contributors. It only has a small population - IIRC less than Spain's unemployed. It entered both the EU and the Euro on the back of lies and false accounting.

So Quick Question - What effect would there be inside the EU if Greece should leave ??
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Old May 9th 2012, 7:15 am
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Default Re: Sterling/Euro

Originally Posted by jojojojojo
I agree with you, the trouble is doesnt that that remove democracy??? Something we value in the west???


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Since when has the EU been "democratic"?
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Old May 9th 2012, 7:21 am
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Default Re: Sterling/Euro

Originally Posted by Domino
Greece is one of the largest users of EU support whilst one of the smallest contributors. It only has a small population - IIRC less than Spain's unemployed. It entered both the EU and the Euro on the back of lies and false accounting.

So Quick Question - What effect would there be inside the EU if Greece should leave ??
The perception in the markets following a Greek default would cause massive uncertainty and chaos.

But I reckon the direct economic effect of Greece leaving the Euro would be nil or even a plus, notwithstanding having paved a path for others to follow. I'd have to believe others would follow, and that would be the nail in the coffin.

Last edited by amideislas; May 9th 2012 at 7:24 am.
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