That is correct. You are right that the primary balance in the final year of our forecast, which forms the jumping-off point for those projections, is one of the reasons why, in the near term, debt looks relatively stable before it starts to rise again. That is based on at least two questionable policy assumptions that we are required to programme into our forecast. One is that fuel duty will be indexed to inflation every year. In fact, it has been frozen every year since 2010. That delivers £6 billion of the improvement in the primary balance. If that does not happen, you are already £6 billion down.

The second thing we are required to do is to rely on what the Government tell us are their desired paths for spending on public services, so departmental expenditure limits. At the moment, the Government have them falling as a share of GDP, but they provide almost no detail about how that will be delivered. The Government did a spending review setting out detailed departmental plans for the year until 31 March 2025. Beyond that, we know virtually nothing. It is just two numbers—one for total current spending and one for total capital spending by department.

Some people have referred to that as a work of fiction. That is probably generous, given that someone has bothered to write a work of fiction, whereas the Government have not even bothered to write down their departmental spending plans underpinning their plans for public services.