Jon-Bxl

Here's in interesting link with the opposite view of Bernanke's that I posted last

http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/24/inve...ash/index.html

There may be people who will flame this company as they bet on options.

Note that gold just hit a 5 year low as well. And the confidence in gold is at a 5yr low with long positions at a multi-year low as well. Seemingly a bad time to buy gold.

Whilst the markets (pre-last weeks tailspin ) are at multi-year highs, and we are recovering from that tailspin too...

http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/26/inve...html?iid=s_mpm

With things so jittery, Flight to Safety + gold = a good time to change to?? I think so though that would be a contrarian view.

Jon

PS the guy that wrote Black Swan, Taleb, and an advisor to the company above, has a new book where he really flames the bankers.. Good for him!!! There is even a black swan ETF !! http://www.horizonsetfs.com/pub/en/etfs/?etf=HUS.U&r=o

Jon-Bxl

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...mmodities.html

Beaverstate

Gold bugs have bomb shelters, weapons, hundreds of pounds of rice, dried beans propane tanks etc... The amusing thing is most only have gold certificates, not the real thing.

notacontrathinker

Ahh, Nassim Taleb !

Beat me to the bookshop with his book 'flaming' bankers yet again. I shall have to get a word processor which can handle 'cut and paste' from different sources better. I even had the right title this time - "Bankers ? I've Defecated Better !". It would have been essential reading on the beaches of the world this summer. There's another €10,000 that won't be seeing the inside of my bank account.

Ever since the World Council of Newspapers declared 'Hedge' and 'Hedging' evil, despite it's green connotations, we've all been looking for a new label for it. I just shows the genius of Nassim to come up with 'Black Swan' investing.

Beats my 'Puce Mongoose Investment Strategy' into a cocked hat.

Jon-Bxl

Agree hes making the big bucks now and is advising some big co's. Ka-chink!

Putting him and printing aside, as a non contrarian, whats your view on the point I've been trying to make, on 'flying' any investments to safety and 'going for gold'? Both contrarian at the moment.

Jon

notacontrathinker

I have a pension fund coming to maturity in the next few DAYS, and with the Footsie going up and down like a whore's drawers, I'm gaining and losing thousands of pounds every day. Pardon me if I don't give you a very definitive answer.

Your jitteriness and Lynn R's doomwatch alert link seems to hinge on whether financial institutions and ordinary people round the world will have second thoughts about lending money to the US Government.

I think not.

As my Grandpappy used to say to me, 'If you're worried about the state of the world, go pat a United States aircraft carrier then go sit under a tree'.

As far as 'Flight to safety' is concerned, the posts here on BE Forum are but a small indication of what is happening out there i.e. people quietly shifting unneeded dosh back into the care of our evil, smarmy, money-grabbing, urgh, evil, wouldn't give them houseroom, British bankers.

Meantime here's some light bedtime reading. I don't agree with all of it but you get the gist.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnthar...le-to-default/

pete_l

If you haven't already seen it, this piece may give you some food for thought: A recovery in the global economy would appear to be hallucinatory, writes Stephen King

So far as going bust is concerned: as the article says, that seems unlikely. The problem the USA faces is not one of default but if the cost of servicing their debt increased greatly. With their level of debt, they are very vulnerable to small changes in their interest rates. That's what "killed" Greece - not the level of debt but the "monthly repayments" which fluctuate depending on how confident the markets feel - or randomly, to put it another way.

Dick Dasterdly

With regard to "Flight to safety, it's probably a case of,.. "the Devil you know...",

or maybe that should now read,

"the Devil you think you know,.. rather than the Devil you definitely don't know !"

Not so sure about your bedtime reading, but I suppose much of that could also be applied to the UK, were it so simple.

Jon-Bxl

Errr don't know how to respond. I suggested last week that the markets were possibly in bubble territory running at all time highs with no ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS to back them up except PM. Then after, we saw a +/- 7% tailspin in a day, when Bernanke suggested reducing PM.

You took umbrage to the word 'printing' ..... yet in your post what is the first quote?

“The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default.” Alan Greenspan

I don't think I was ever discussing US debt. However....

Throwing 'newly created money' at the problem is not a fix. What would be the worldwide consequences of the US creating even more boatloads of money, in your paradigm?

It actually supports my posts about the dangers of QE/PM, as the 'experts' think (and say) they can print their way out of trouble!

I'm very sorry re your pension. I am in my mid 50's and I strongly suggest to anybody that by the time you reach +/- 60 you have it somewhere safe and not tied solely to the markets volatility. It is a PENSION after all.

Sure you could 'lose' hypothetical money by not benefiting from any gain.... but you could lose a lot as well, in ACTUAL value .... as in your case you are seeing with 'thousands' moving every day.

I have a decade to try and pick a point when I move my pensions to safety:

I will probably get the exact date wrong but as a very wise man once said ... 'no-one ever got poor by taking a profit'

Jon

freeman1

Keep your money under the mattress its the only safe place,all the banks in Spain are going to fail,and yes the "EUSSR" will force a "bail-in" of all the idiots who DO keep their cash in Spanish banks,
GET out NOW.

freeman1

You seem to be the only sensible one on this forum,the rest of them ex d/d all seem apologists for the pop party.

Jon-Bxl

The ECB president has opened discussions and mentioned publically two times that they are considering extraordinary measures of having NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES on bank deposits to get money. I've found politicians often bring things in slowly like this.

If this happens then savers will be 'taxed' to hold deposits not by the bank but from central control!! So the Mattress may be the place to put it

In Cyprus they heavily taxed 100K + deposits, that may not affect everybody, but it looks like savers who should be ENCOURAGED might actually be the target in the future
Jon

Neptuno

Notacontrathinker-will the Spanish tax man be interested in your maturing pension?

Dick Dasterdly

Maybe he'd like a peep inside his mattress as well, just for good measure of course.

The Beast

Many a word said and all that DD!!