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Could it happen here?

Could it happen here?

Old May 6th 2010, 8:09 am
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Default Could it happen here?

I think by now most people will have seen the shocking scenes in Athens,and other Greek cities,with likely more to follow.
Does anyone think similar public disorder or riots could occur here in Spain or maybe Portugal, as many political commentators are beginning to suggest, if the economic situation doesn't improve, more people lose their jobs and drastic action has to be taken to halt the slide?
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Old May 6th 2010, 8:14 am
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Default Re: Could it happen here?

Originally Posted by Dick Dasterdly
I think by now most people will have seen the shocking scenes in Athens,and other Greek cities,with likely more to follow.
Does anyone think similar public disorder or riots could occur here in Spain or maybe Portugal, as many political commentators are beginning to suggest, if the economic situation doesn't improve, more people lose their jobs and drastic action has to be taken to halt the slide?
Yes it could happen here.

There have been plenty of demos, about a whole host of different situations.

And there are a lot of angry, disenfranchised young men out there.

As things worsen it does not take much for a demo to become a riot.
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Old May 6th 2010, 8:35 am
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Default Re: Could it happen here?

Originally Posted by Dick Dasterdly
... if the economic situation doesn't improve,
The only way the economic situation can improve is if the Greeks stop spending so much money (more than they earn).
Greece also has a unique problem, which doesn't really occur in other Eurozone countries. This crisis started there when the new government "discovered" that the country's accounts had been falsified - that their financial position was much worse than the previous govt. had been telling people. Plus, it appears (from news reports) that a lot of the rioting has been the result of the communist party, which is quite active in Greece.
So the situation there is quite different from other european countries.
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Old May 6th 2010, 8:45 am
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Default Re: Could it happen here?

Yes it could happen in Spain. And it could happen in the UK as well.

The deficit in the UK and Spain is roughly at the same levels as Greece. Our economies are scr***d aswell.

Markets are all about confidence. I dont like the role of the ratings agencies. They talked down Greece's debt which led to them not being able to get any loans and hence they needed to be rescued. It seems to me that they picked on a small country, a little like a bully would do in a school yard.

They could just as easily as picked on the UK or Spain but they didnt dare to.

These ratings agencies have no credibility in my eyes. Lehmans was rated as ultra safe, just before it went bust. And these agencies did not predict any of the crisis over the past 3 years. They are just tools to safegard Anglo-American capitalism as they just pick on the economies that are not their own.
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Old May 6th 2010, 8:46 am
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Default Re: Could it happen here?

A very wise old neighbour of mine, said that when the Spanish government give something for nothing then it is time to worry.

he was referring to the extra 6 month dole payment to the unemployed who had finished their entitlement. They have been given 400 odd euros a month-

He said that they must be very worried, not for the welfare of the unemployed involved, because it has never bothered them before, but for the consequences that might arise with so many unemployed due to the crisis. ie Demos and riots and other forms of protest.

Could there be something in his theory?

And if things continue to worsen will this little bit of help make a difference to the way the Spanish poeple feel.?

I dont know the answer.
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Old May 6th 2010, 8:58 am
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Default Re: Could it happen here?

altho the UK is in the same sort of mess as Greece, Spain etc, it has a better and more stable financial foundation and is in a much better position to rectify the problem. So altho I think it may have to squeeze its people a bit tightly, I think the UK will not be in the same turmoil or downward spiral

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Old May 6th 2010, 9:14 am
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Default Re: Could it happen here?

Originally Posted by jojojojojo
altho the UK is in the same sort of mess as Greece, Spain etc, it has a better and more stable financial foundation and is in a much better position to rectify the problem. So altho I think it may have to squeeze its people a bit tightly, I think the UK will not be in the same turmoil or downward spiral

Jo xxx
I agree with Jo.
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Old May 6th 2010, 9:18 am
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Default Re: Could it happen here?

Originally Posted by jojojojojo
So altho I think it may have to squeeze its people a bit tightly, I think the UK will not be in the same turmoil or downward spiral
Jo xxx
I think that squeeze might be a bit tighter than you suggest, but as yet none of the parties in this election is really telling us how they will go about clawing these huge amounts of money back. I suspect we will be in for a few unpleasant surprises once it's decided who will be in control.
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Old May 6th 2010, 9:43 am
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Default Re: Could it happen here?

I think here is Spain the people will be of a similar mind set as the rioters in Greece sadly, so I suspect they'll be some demonstrating and stamping of feet. Arent they about to put the IVA tax thing up here???

Maybe if there wasnt so much tax evasion in Spain - and in Greece, this situation wouldnt have arisen in such proportions. That is something that needs addressing

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Old May 6th 2010, 10:20 am
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Default Re: Could it happen here?

Originally Posted by jojojojojo
I think here is Spain the people will be of a similar mind set as the rioters in Greece sadly, so I suspect they'll be some demonstrating and stamping of feet. Arent they about to put the IVA tax thing up here???

Maybe if there wasnt so much tax evasion in Spain - and in Greece, this situation wouldnt have arisen in such proportions. That is something that needs addressing

Jo xxx
It has nothing to do with tax evasion and everything to do with over leveraging!

That's what the UK, US and the PIIGS (dreaded term!) have been doing. Continued borrowing against possible future growth.

A bit like if I said to the bank "My house is worth 200k now, but it will be work 1 million in 10 years time, so you give me the 800k now and I'll pay you 2% a year interest on it". Problem is if your house is still worth £200k in 10 years time, both you AND the bank go bust!

The very economic system is under threat and we could see a re-shaping of the world order. I've been working with a lot of Chinese clients recently and I am very impressed
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Old May 6th 2010, 10:27 am
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Default Re: Could it happen here?

Just hope Spain won't have to put IVA to 23% and increase alcohol by 10% like Greece
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Old May 6th 2010, 10:33 am
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Default Re: Could it happen here?

Originally Posted by jackytoo
Just hope Spain won't have to put IVA to 23% and increase alcohol by 10% like Greece
You can kiss those cheap holidays in Greece goodbye..............that's going to have a dramatic effect on tourism and in turn the economy as well.
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Old May 6th 2010, 12:20 pm
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Default Re: Could it happen here?

Originally Posted by Madridboy
You can kiss those cheap holidays in Greece goodbye..............that's going to have a dramatic effect on tourism and in turn the economy as well.

Not sure about that , we are all trading with euros so if things get expensive in Greece people will import from cheaper euro zone countries ,VAT increases is the only way things may get very expensive,then a crazy hike say to 30% will create a massive black market (much bigger than the existing one!) the only thing you cant import is property so that may take a bigger hiding , like Spain is now.
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Old May 6th 2010, 12:21 pm
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Default Re: Could it happen here?

Originally Posted by jojojojojo
altho the UK is in the same sort of mess as Greece, Spain etc, it has a better and more stable financial foundation and is in a much better position to rectify the problem. So altho I think it may have to squeeze its people a bit tightly, I think the UK will not be in the same turmoil or downward spiral

Jo xxx

Agreed.
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Old May 6th 2010, 12:36 pm
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Default Re: Could it happen here?

Originally Posted by Rotor
Not sure about that , we are all trading with euros so if things get expensive in Greece people will import from cheaper euro zone countries ,VAT increases is the only way things may get very expensive,then a crazy hike say to 30% will create a massive black market (much bigger than the existing one!) the only thing you cant import is property so that may take a bigger hiding , like Spain is now.
The trouble is that if these black markets keep growing (and I've no doubt they will), its not only going to affect any recovery, but its going to turn the whole lot inside out and upside down!!!! Anarchy! In fact thats what the EU/governements need to think about. Not just what to do about it all, but what will happen if they do what they plan. They never seem to think things thru to their conclusion - on anything!!

Jo xxx
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