French 'Non' to Constitution Would Plunge EU into Crisis
Jun 1st 2005, 2:15 pm
#46
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: French 'Non' to Constitution Would Plunge EU into Crisis
On 1 Jun 2005 01:29:46 -0700, "Jordi" <[email protected]> wrote:
>[email protected] ha escrito:
>> On 31 May 2005 04:16:20 -0700, "Jordi" <[email protected]> wrote:
>> >
>> >
>> >Right. The traditional reason a currency weakens is to recover from a
>> >bad trade deficit (others having to see with inflation, which is not
>> >the case here). The dollar stays low, and the trade deficit shows no
>> >sign of improving, that is why it will probably go even lower in the
>> >mid-long term.
>> Actually, the normal reason is that the interest rate paid on similar
>> deposits of the currencies in question are not sufficient to keep the
>> exchange rate where it is, causing funds to shift in one direction or
>> another until equilibrium is reached. Interest rates are a function
>> of inflation which, in turn, is a function of commodity and other
>> prices, etc. etc.
>Interest rates must have inflation deducted in order to be comparable,
>anyway, they are set by the central authorities of the country in
>question.
That's true, but this is exactly what the exchange markets do through
the interest rate adjustment mechanism.
>The federal reserve is deliberately keeping the interest rates in a way
>the dollar is kept in all-time lows. Be it to keep American exports or
>to choke European ones doesn't really matter.
Wrong. The Fed sets interest rates according to domestic economic
considerations. As long as inflation is not being imported to any
great degree, it ignores exchange rates and the market adjusts them.
It is virtually impossible for a government to influence the exchange
rate for its currency over any period of time, short of fixing the
rate like the Chinese do. The Fed is keeping interest rates where
they are to keep US economic growth going. Europeans are choking
their own growth through their foolish economic policies. If they
were growing, like the US, the chances are that the Euro exchange rate
would adjust accordingly. The EU had these low growth rates, after
all, during the period when the dollar was very strong.
> This is why exchange rates are always market driven
>> and determined, with occasional blips like the French vote causing a
>> short term movement in one direction or another until the normal
>> market factors once again take hold. And, again, the budget deficit
>> in the US is much more a determinate of this than the trade balance,
>> which, as I said, has been in deficit for the US for so long now no
>> one can remember when it was in surplus. As a result, the dollar has
>> gotten weaker or stronger much more in line with whether the budget is
>> in deficit or not. And what is going on with the economies of other
>> nations relative to the US.
>> >
>> >Luckily for the US most critical materials are pegged in some way to
>> >the USD (oil, Gulf currencies, China, etc.) should that not be the
>> >case, the situation could not have lasted for that long.
>> Actually, this is much more lucky for Europe than the US. When the
>> dollar is weak, as it is now, Europe benefits by being able to get its
>> commodities like oil cheaper than it otherwise would. When the dollar
>> is strong, commodity prices are almost always weak which also makes
>> them relatively cheaper for Europe. What is lucky for the US having
>> to pay $50 a barrel for oil (or about 40 Euros) as opposed to having
>> paid $25 a barrel a few years ago (when it was about 20 Euros)? The
>> difference being a 100% change in dollar terms while only about a 38%
>> change in Euro terms? Clearly, this has hit the US much harder than
>> Europe.
>So imagine how the situation would be for the US if oil would not be
>paid in Dollars, apart from the price rise they would have faced a even
>greater nett price rise due to their own currency devaluation.
A. not necessarily. What if it were set in a currency pegged to the
dollar? Nothing would change
B. Say it were the Euro. What do you think the Europeans economies
would be doing with the price of oil going up? Grow faster?
>> >
>> >It is a major issue, as companies are shifting more and more to
>> >intra-EU trade and exports to more 'protected' markets like Eastern
>> >Europe. South America, for example is experiencing a major decrease in
>> >EU origin imports, so EU companies are now buying cheap big stakes on
>> >the continent.
>> I'm sure they are. That's a natural reaction when something like this
>> happens. Problem is, however, that European economies in general are
>> not growing anywhere near enough to offset the US situation, so
>> overall, this is going to continue to be a major problem for them.
>The aim is not to offset anyone, but to keep/improve the living
>standards of the citizens.
Sorry, The aim is to make more profit for the European companies
doing this. If it happens to have this effect fine, but if they
simply pocket the profits to offset those lost in the US nothing will
change, and that has been the history in the EU or you wouldn't have
the unemployment rates you have would you?
>[email protected] ha escrito:
>> On 31 May 2005 04:16:20 -0700, "Jordi" <[email protected]> wrote:
>> >
>> >
>> >Right. The traditional reason a currency weakens is to recover from a
>> >bad trade deficit (others having to see with inflation, which is not
>> >the case here). The dollar stays low, and the trade deficit shows no
>> >sign of improving, that is why it will probably go even lower in the
>> >mid-long term.
>> Actually, the normal reason is that the interest rate paid on similar
>> deposits of the currencies in question are not sufficient to keep the
>> exchange rate where it is, causing funds to shift in one direction or
>> another until equilibrium is reached. Interest rates are a function
>> of inflation which, in turn, is a function of commodity and other
>> prices, etc. etc.
>Interest rates must have inflation deducted in order to be comparable,
>anyway, they are set by the central authorities of the country in
>question.
That's true, but this is exactly what the exchange markets do through
the interest rate adjustment mechanism.
>The federal reserve is deliberately keeping the interest rates in a way
>the dollar is kept in all-time lows. Be it to keep American exports or
>to choke European ones doesn't really matter.
Wrong. The Fed sets interest rates according to domestic economic
considerations. As long as inflation is not being imported to any
great degree, it ignores exchange rates and the market adjusts them.
It is virtually impossible for a government to influence the exchange
rate for its currency over any period of time, short of fixing the
rate like the Chinese do. The Fed is keeping interest rates where
they are to keep US economic growth going. Europeans are choking
their own growth through their foolish economic policies. If they
were growing, like the US, the chances are that the Euro exchange rate
would adjust accordingly. The EU had these low growth rates, after
all, during the period when the dollar was very strong.
> This is why exchange rates are always market driven
>> and determined, with occasional blips like the French vote causing a
>> short term movement in one direction or another until the normal
>> market factors once again take hold. And, again, the budget deficit
>> in the US is much more a determinate of this than the trade balance,
>> which, as I said, has been in deficit for the US for so long now no
>> one can remember when it was in surplus. As a result, the dollar has
>> gotten weaker or stronger much more in line with whether the budget is
>> in deficit or not. And what is going on with the economies of other
>> nations relative to the US.
>> >
>> >Luckily for the US most critical materials are pegged in some way to
>> >the USD (oil, Gulf currencies, China, etc.) should that not be the
>> >case, the situation could not have lasted for that long.
>> Actually, this is much more lucky for Europe than the US. When the
>> dollar is weak, as it is now, Europe benefits by being able to get its
>> commodities like oil cheaper than it otherwise would. When the dollar
>> is strong, commodity prices are almost always weak which also makes
>> them relatively cheaper for Europe. What is lucky for the US having
>> to pay $50 a barrel for oil (or about 40 Euros) as opposed to having
>> paid $25 a barrel a few years ago (when it was about 20 Euros)? The
>> difference being a 100% change in dollar terms while only about a 38%
>> change in Euro terms? Clearly, this has hit the US much harder than
>> Europe.
>So imagine how the situation would be for the US if oil would not be
>paid in Dollars, apart from the price rise they would have faced a even
>greater nett price rise due to their own currency devaluation.
A. not necessarily. What if it were set in a currency pegged to the
dollar? Nothing would change
B. Say it were the Euro. What do you think the Europeans economies
would be doing with the price of oil going up? Grow faster?
>> >
>> >It is a major issue, as companies are shifting more and more to
>> >intra-EU trade and exports to more 'protected' markets like Eastern
>> >Europe. South America, for example is experiencing a major decrease in
>> >EU origin imports, so EU companies are now buying cheap big stakes on
>> >the continent.
>> I'm sure they are. That's a natural reaction when something like this
>> happens. Problem is, however, that European economies in general are
>> not growing anywhere near enough to offset the US situation, so
>> overall, this is going to continue to be a major problem for them.
>The aim is not to offset anyone, but to keep/improve the living
>standards of the citizens.
Sorry, The aim is to make more profit for the European companies
doing this. If it happens to have this effect fine, but if they
simply pocket the profits to offset those lost in the US nothing will
change, and that has been the history in the EU or you wouldn't have
the unemployment rates you have would you?
Jun 3rd 2005, 8:58 am
#47
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: French 'Non' to Constitution Would Plunge EU into Crisis
Following up to [email protected]
>>The problem of the dollar has nothing to do with the euro but the balance
>>of trade deficit. What to people do with them if they hold a lot of them?
>Yet another subject on which you have absolutely no expertise but
>shoot you fool mouth about.
It seems you're the fool, the weak dollar is due to trade
imbalance and deficit budgeting, Earl is entirely right.
The euro will not weaken because of a failed treaty, except maybe
in short term speculation. Economics determines these things, not
politics.
The real question is how did you get out of my killfile?
--
Mike Reid
Wasdale-Thames path-London-Photos "http://www.fellwalk.co.uk" <-- you can email us@ this site
Eat-walk-Spain "http://www.fell-walker.co.uk" <-- dontuse@ all, it's a spamtrap
>>The problem of the dollar has nothing to do with the euro but the balance
>>of trade deficit. What to people do with them if they hold a lot of them?
>Yet another subject on which you have absolutely no expertise but
>shoot you fool mouth about.
It seems you're the fool, the weak dollar is due to trade
imbalance and deficit budgeting, Earl is entirely right.
The euro will not weaken because of a failed treaty, except maybe
in short term speculation. Economics determines these things, not
politics.
The real question is how did you get out of my killfile?
--
Mike Reid
Wasdale-Thames path-London-Photos "http://www.fellwalk.co.uk" <-- you can email us@ this site
Eat-walk-Spain "http://www.fell-walker.co.uk" <-- dontuse@ all, it's a spamtrap
Jun 3rd 2005, 8:58 am
#48
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: French 'Non' to Constitution Would Plunge EU into Crisis
Following up to [email protected]
>Exactly contradicting what you
>said when you said that the rate was a function of the trade balance
>(which is bullshit)
fundamentally, exchange rates are a function of trade balances
--
Mike Reid
Wasdale-Thames path-London-Photos "http://www.fellwalk.co.uk" <-- you can email us@ this site
Eat-walk-Spain "http://www.fell-walker.co.uk" <-- dontuse@ all, it's a spamtrap
>Exactly contradicting what you
>said when you said that the rate was a function of the trade balance
>(which is bullshit)
fundamentally, exchange rates are a function of trade balances
--
Mike Reid
Wasdale-Thames path-London-Photos "http://www.fellwalk.co.uk" <-- you can email us@ this site
Eat-walk-Spain "http://www.fell-walker.co.uk" <-- dontuse@ all, it's a spamtrap
Jun 3rd 2005, 8:58 am
#49
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: French 'Non' to Constitution Would Plunge EU into Crisis
Following up to Mxsmanic
>> Fools mainly think that a so-called weak dollar is a problem. In
>> fact, it is an adjustment mechanism for an economy and generally gets
>> "weaker" when that country's economy is doing BETTER than those of
>> countries whose currencies are getting "stronger."
>Uh-huh. Time will tell.
its amusing how american right fools call on a special set of
half understood laws to explain away circumstances that don't
suit their mindset. I think he is alluding in a twisted way to
how a weak currency aids exports and deters imports.
--
Mike Reid
Wasdale-Thames path-London-Photos "http://www.fellwalk.co.uk" <-- you can email us@ this site
Eat-walk-Spain "http://www.fell-walker.co.uk" <-- dontuse@ all, it's a spamtrap
>> Fools mainly think that a so-called weak dollar is a problem. In
>> fact, it is an adjustment mechanism for an economy and generally gets
>> "weaker" when that country's economy is doing BETTER than those of
>> countries whose currencies are getting "stronger."
>Uh-huh. Time will tell.
its amusing how american right fools call on a special set of
half understood laws to explain away circumstances that don't
suit their mindset. I think he is alluding in a twisted way to
how a weak currency aids exports and deters imports.
--
Mike Reid
Wasdale-Thames path-London-Photos "http://www.fellwalk.co.uk" <-- you can email us@ this site
Eat-walk-Spain "http://www.fell-walker.co.uk" <-- dontuse@ all, it's a spamtrap
Jun 3rd 2005, 8:58 am
#50
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: French 'Non' to Constitution Would Plunge EU into Crisis
Following up to [email protected]
>>Eventually it will have to yield. What will they do with all those dollars?
>>They hold hundreds of billion is US bonds. Eventually these will devalue in
>>face of the rise of their own money.
>The same thing all other countries do you idiot. Hold them in reserve
>and use them to settle their obligations with other countries. Which
>is how the international economy works idiot. That's why it's called
>a reserve currency idiot.
are you so stupid that you cannot see that he other countries
want dollars to pay for american exports, if US imports more than
it exports, people need less dollars and the value falls. You can
mitigate with high interest rates to attract lenders, but in the
end you cant buck reality.
--
Mike Reid
Wasdale-Thames path-London-Photos "http://www.fellwalk.co.uk" <-- you can email us@ this site
Eat-walk-Spain "http://www.fell-walker.co.uk" <-- dontuse@ all, it's a spamtrap
>>Eventually it will have to yield. What will they do with all those dollars?
>>They hold hundreds of billion is US bonds. Eventually these will devalue in
>>face of the rise of their own money.
>The same thing all other countries do you idiot. Hold them in reserve
>and use them to settle their obligations with other countries. Which
>is how the international economy works idiot. That's why it's called
>a reserve currency idiot.
are you so stupid that you cannot see that he other countries
want dollars to pay for american exports, if US imports more than
it exports, people need less dollars and the value falls. You can
mitigate with high interest rates to attract lenders, but in the
end you cant buck reality.
--
Mike Reid
Wasdale-Thames path-London-Photos "http://www.fellwalk.co.uk" <-- you can email us@ this site
Eat-walk-Spain "http://www.fell-walker.co.uk" <-- dontuse@ all, it's a spamtrap
Jun 3rd 2005, 8:58 am
#51
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: French 'Non' to Constitution Would Plunge EU into Crisis
Following up to Mxsmanic
>> You don't think 5%-15% isn't much of a difference ?
>I don't think it really makes that much difference whether the
>constitution is ratified or not. The same trends will continue either
>way, towards a gradual elimination of democracy and an ever-increasing
>expansion of bureaucracy.
it might have the opposite effect if Brussels realise they need
an accountable and popular system if they are to gain further
acceptance by the electorates.
This constitution was never going to pass in UK so I suspect its
loss was already accounted for in the thinking of those who deal
in currencies.
--
Mike Reid
Wasdale-Thames path-London-Photos "http://www.fellwalk.co.uk" <-- you can email us@ this site
Eat-walk-Spain "http://www.fell-walker.co.uk" <-- dontuse@ all, it's a spamtrap
>> You don't think 5%-15% isn't much of a difference ?
>I don't think it really makes that much difference whether the
>constitution is ratified or not. The same trends will continue either
>way, towards a gradual elimination of democracy and an ever-increasing
>expansion of bureaucracy.
it might have the opposite effect if Brussels realise they need
an accountable and popular system if they are to gain further
acceptance by the electorates.
This constitution was never going to pass in UK so I suspect its
loss was already accounted for in the thinking of those who deal
in currencies.
--
Mike Reid
Wasdale-Thames path-London-Photos "http://www.fellwalk.co.uk" <-- you can email us@ this site
Eat-walk-Spain "http://www.fell-walker.co.uk" <-- dontuse@ all, it's a spamtrap
Jun 3rd 2005, 8:58 am
#52
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: French 'Non' to Constitution Would Plunge EU into Crisis
Following up to lola
>We heard the Euro would weaken. The last time we were in Paris the Euro
>went from $0.85 all the way up to $1.29. We had to leave, we couldn't
>afford it. We miss it and would like to return...is it bad to hope for
>a weaker Euro?
Its the dollar that is weak, not the euro strong. The convention
will make no difference.
--
Mike Reid
Wasdale-Thames path-London-Photos "http://www.fellwalk.co.uk" <-- you can email us@ this site
Eat-walk-Spain "http://www.fell-walker.co.uk" <-- dontuse@ all, it's a spamtrap
>We heard the Euro would weaken. The last time we were in Paris the Euro
>went from $0.85 all the way up to $1.29. We had to leave, we couldn't
>afford it. We miss it and would like to return...is it bad to hope for
>a weaker Euro?
Its the dollar that is weak, not the euro strong. The convention
will make no difference.
--
Mike Reid
Wasdale-Thames path-London-Photos "http://www.fellwalk.co.uk" <-- you can email us@ this site
Eat-walk-Spain "http://www.fell-walker.co.uk" <-- dontuse@ all, it's a spamtrap
Jun 3rd 2005, 8:58 am
#53
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: French 'Non' to Constitution Would Plunge EU into Crisis
Following up to Bill McKee
>Actually it is the US Fed not supporting the $ against the Euro. Much more
>economic problems in Europe. Our GNP is growing at a nice 3.5% rate.
look what happened when the UK government tries to suuport the
pound. You cant buck reality in the longterm. If imports exceed
export the currency falls. There's no avoiding it.
--
Mike Reid
Wasdale-Thames path-London-Photos "http://www.fellwalk.co.uk" <-- you can email us@ this site
Eat-walk-Spain "http://www.fell-walker.co.uk" <-- dontuse@ all, it's a spamtrap
>Actually it is the US Fed not supporting the $ against the Euro. Much more
>economic problems in Europe. Our GNP is growing at a nice 3.5% rate.
look what happened when the UK government tries to suuport the
pound. You cant buck reality in the longterm. If imports exceed
export the currency falls. There's no avoiding it.
--
Mike Reid
Wasdale-Thames path-London-Photos "http://www.fellwalk.co.uk" <-- you can email us@ this site
Eat-walk-Spain "http://www.fell-walker.co.uk" <-- dontuse@ all, it's a spamtrap
Jun 3rd 2005, 8:58 am
#54
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: French 'Non' to Constitution Would Plunge EU into Crisis
Following up to poldy
>Driving the euro down would be
>> committing two wrongs to make a right, which wouldn't be sensible.
>Yeah but it sounds like European economies aren't going great either.
>Germany has 12% unemployment and France is over 10%. GDP growth is
>nonexistent.
they don't have trade deficits,which is the relevant point.
--
Mike Reid
Wasdale-Thames path-London-Photos "http://www.fellwalk.co.uk" <-- you can email us@ this site
Eat-walk-Spain "http://www.fell-walker.co.uk" <-- dontuse@ all, it's a spamtrap
>Driving the euro down would be
>> committing two wrongs to make a right, which wouldn't be sensible.
>Yeah but it sounds like European economies aren't going great either.
>Germany has 12% unemployment and France is over 10%. GDP growth is
>nonexistent.
they don't have trade deficits,which is the relevant point.
--
Mike Reid
Wasdale-Thames path-London-Photos "http://www.fellwalk.co.uk" <-- you can email us@ this site
Eat-walk-Spain "http://www.fell-walker.co.uk" <-- dontuse@ all, it's a spamtrap
Jun 3rd 2005, 8:58 am
#55
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: French 'Non' to Constitution Would Plunge EU into Crisis
Following up to nitram
>>help, europe has been plunged into a crisis, what can be done to save
>>the continent ?
>PLAN B?
what crisis?
--
Mike Reid
Wasdale-Thames path-London-Photos "http://www.fellwalk.co.uk" <-- you can email us@ this site
Eat-walk-Spain "http://www.fell-walker.co.uk" <-- dontuse@ all, it's a spamtrap
>>help, europe has been plunged into a crisis, what can be done to save
>>the continent ?
>PLAN B?
what crisis?
--
Mike Reid
Wasdale-Thames path-London-Photos "http://www.fellwalk.co.uk" <-- you can email us@ this site
Eat-walk-Spain "http://www.fell-walker.co.uk" <-- dontuse@ all, it's a spamtrap
Jun 3rd 2005, 9:50 am
#56
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: French 'Non' to Constitution Would Plunge EU into Crisis
On 3/06/05 10:58, in article [email protected],
"The Reids" <[email protected]> wrote:
> fundamentally, exchange rates are a function of trade balances
They are mainly market driven, if free, by supply and demand.
Although the potential supply of dollars are much larger than
the demand, not everybody puts their dollars on the market.
So, if kept in their reserves they only represent a "overhang"
to the market.
The US trade imbalance is a steady and increasing supply to the
overhang.
If you look at Chart 1 in
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2005/0302.html
you will see the US current account deficit has gone from 200 to over
600 billion dollars from 1998 to now. Next the foreign ownership
of the national debt, outside intergovernmental holdings is approaching
45% of the total having risen from 30% at the beginning of Bush's
watch (has he even been looking).
Next, is America good for this debt? There has been a distinct change
in American attitudes at the personal level. On May 18th the European
Wall Street journal published an article entitled "In US, many use debt
to catch up" on consumption.
The unknown fact is that since 1990 Median household incomes have only
risen 11% and that increase occurred all in the 1990s. Since 2000
that income has been flat, even dropping in the Bush's mid-term.
The median income is about $40,000 a year and beginning in 2000 the
median household spending moved above the income. This is being financed
by median household debt, which has gone from $60,000 to over $100,000.
So the "borrow and spend" new fiscal practices of the Republicans is also
reflected in the general behavior of the American people. I say new
since it was Reagan who started this practice.
Note also that since 2000, the stock markets have been trading below their
former highs. As a result of not making money there, there has been
a shift in "asset inflation" to the real estate market. This is world
wide and a bubble situation has arisen. The Wall Street Journal had an
op-ed article yesterday entitled "Bubble bubble, housing trouble" by
the author of the book "Irrational Exuberance"
http://www.usatoday.com/money/books/...uberance_x.htm
Earl
"The Reids" <[email protected]> wrote:
> fundamentally, exchange rates are a function of trade balances
They are mainly market driven, if free, by supply and demand.
Although the potential supply of dollars are much larger than
the demand, not everybody puts their dollars on the market.
So, if kept in their reserves they only represent a "overhang"
to the market.
The US trade imbalance is a steady and increasing supply to the
overhang.
If you look at Chart 1 in
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2005/0302.html
you will see the US current account deficit has gone from 200 to over
600 billion dollars from 1998 to now. Next the foreign ownership
of the national debt, outside intergovernmental holdings is approaching
45% of the total having risen from 30% at the beginning of Bush's
watch (has he even been looking).
Next, is America good for this debt? There has been a distinct change
in American attitudes at the personal level. On May 18th the European
Wall Street journal published an article entitled "In US, many use debt
to catch up" on consumption.
The unknown fact is that since 1990 Median household incomes have only
risen 11% and that increase occurred all in the 1990s. Since 2000
that income has been flat, even dropping in the Bush's mid-term.
The median income is about $40,000 a year and beginning in 2000 the
median household spending moved above the income. This is being financed
by median household debt, which has gone from $60,000 to over $100,000.
So the "borrow and spend" new fiscal practices of the Republicans is also
reflected in the general behavior of the American people. I say new
since it was Reagan who started this practice.
Note also that since 2000, the stock markets have been trading below their
former highs. As a result of not making money there, there has been
a shift in "asset inflation" to the real estate market. This is world
wide and a bubble situation has arisen. The Wall Street Journal had an
op-ed article yesterday entitled "Bubble bubble, housing trouble" by
the author of the book "Irrational Exuberance"
http://www.usatoday.com/money/books/...uberance_x.htm
Earl
Jun 3rd 2005, 10:21 am
#57
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: French 'Non' to Constitution Would Plunge EU into Crisis
On Fri, 03 Jun 2005 09:58:33 +0100, The Reids
<[email protected]> wrote:
>Following up to Bill McKee
>>Actually it is the US Fed not supporting the $ against the Euro. Much more
>>economic problems in Europe. Our GNP is growing at a nice 3.5% rate.
>look what happened when the UK government tries to suuport the
>pound. You cant buck reality in the longterm. If imports exceed
>export the currency falls. There's no avoiding it.
The pound doesn't seem to have fallen despite a massive imbalance of
imports over exports.
--
Martin
<[email protected]> wrote:
>Following up to Bill McKee
>>Actually it is the US Fed not supporting the $ against the Euro. Much more
>>economic problems in Europe. Our GNP is growing at a nice 3.5% rate.
>look what happened when the UK government tries to suuport the
>pound. You cant buck reality in the longterm. If imports exceed
>export the currency falls. There's no avoiding it.
The pound doesn't seem to have fallen despite a massive imbalance of
imports over exports.
--
Martin
Jun 3rd 2005, 10:22 am
#58
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: French 'Non' to Constitution Would Plunge EU into Crisis
On Fri, 03 Jun 2005 09:58:34 +0100, The Reids
<[email protected]> wrote:
>Following up to poldy
>>Driving the euro down would be
>>> committing two wrongs to make a right, which wouldn't be sensible.
>>Yeah but it sounds like European economies aren't going great either.
>>Germany has 12% unemployment and France is over 10%. GDP growth is
>>nonexistent.
>they don't have trade deficits,which is the relevant point.
They do have trade deficits.
--
Martin
<[email protected]> wrote:
>Following up to poldy
>>Driving the euro down would be
>>> committing two wrongs to make a right, which wouldn't be sensible.
>>Yeah but it sounds like European economies aren't going great either.
>>Germany has 12% unemployment and France is over 10%. GDP growth is
>>nonexistent.
>they don't have trade deficits,which is the relevant point.
They do have trade deficits.
--
Martin
Jun 3rd 2005, 10:23 am
#59
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: French 'Non' to Constitution Would Plunge EU into Crisis
On Fri, 03 Jun 2005 09:58:35 +0100, The Reids
<[email protected]> wrote:
>Following up to nitram
>>>help, europe has been plunged into a crisis, what can be done to save
>>>the continent ?
>>PLAN B?
>what crisis?
:-)
PLAN C
<picks up Emilia's megaphone>
THERE IS NO CRISIS, DON'T PANIC ...
--
Martin
<[email protected]> wrote:
>Following up to nitram
>>>help, europe has been plunged into a crisis, what can be done to save
>>>the continent ?
>>PLAN B?
>what crisis?
:-)
PLAN C
<picks up Emilia's megaphone>
THERE IS NO CRISIS, DON'T PANIC ...
--
Martin
Jun 3rd 2005, 10:36 am
#60
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: French 'Non' to Constitution Would Plunge EU into Crisis
Following up to Earl Evleth
>> fundamentally, exchange rates are a function of trade balances
>They are mainly market driven, if free, by supply and demand.
and supply and demand for a currency come from the balance of
imports and exports, the market responds to the number of dollars
going spare or short.
--
Mike Reid
Wasdale-Thames path-London-Photos "http://www.fellwalk.co.uk" <-- you can email us@ this site
Eat-walk-Spain "http://www.fell-walker.co.uk" <-- dontuse@ all, it's a spamtrap
>> fundamentally, exchange rates are a function of trade balances
>They are mainly market driven, if free, by supply and demand.
and supply and demand for a currency come from the balance of
imports and exports, the market responds to the number of dollars
going spare or short.
--
Mike Reid
Wasdale-Thames path-London-Photos "http://www.fellwalk.co.uk" <-- you can email us@ this site
Eat-walk-Spain "http://www.fell-walker.co.uk" <-- dontuse@ all, it's a spamtrap