michaelnewport

nitram wrote:
    > On 30 May 2005 02:52:45 -0700, [email protected] wrote:
    > >help, europe has been plunged into a crisis, what can be done to save
    > >the continent ?
    >
    > PLAN B?

retail therapy with my worthless Euros ?

Nitram

On 30 May 2005 03:32:12 -0700, [email protected] wrote:

    >nitram wrote:
    >> On 30 May 2005 02:52:45 -0700, [email protected] wrote:
    >> >help, europe has been plunged into a crisis, what can be done to save
    >> >the continent ?
    >>
    >> PLAN B?
    >retail therapy with my worthless Euros ?

Total value of Dutch house mortgages is equal to 95% of GNP.
DON'T PANIC!

jbk

On Mon, 30 May 2005 06:37:19 +0200, Mxsmanic <[email protected]>
wrote:

    >[email protected] writes:
    >> >The problem of the dollar has nothing to do with the euro but the balance
    >> >of trade deficit. What to people do with them if they hold a lot of them?
    >> >
    >> >Earl
    >>
    >> Yet another subject on which you have absolutely no expertise but
    >> shoot you fool mouth about.
    >Strangely enough, a lot of financial analysts agree with Earl. The weak
    >dollar is the result of serious and durable problems with the U.S.
    >budget, whereas the decision of France not to ratify the European
    >constitution isn't expected to have more than a small and temporary
    >effect on the euro.

First, you can find analysts to back whatever position you want to put
forward. The question is which of them is correct.

Second, it is absurd to say that the problem of the dollar (whatever
problem that is supposed to be) has nothing to do with the Euro.
Fools mainly think that a so-called weak dollar is a problem. In
fact, it is an adjustment mechanism for an economy and generally gets
"weaker" when that country's economy is doing BETTER than those of
countries whose currencies are getting "stronger." Just look at the
reletive economic performance of the EU countries (most, not all)
compared to the US and you will see that as the US economy started
recovering, the dollar got "weaker." This makes the US economy
perform even better vis-a-vis those EU economies, because it makes US
exports cheaper and EU exports more expensive relative to the US,
furthering economic growth. The only way many European companies can
come close to maintaining their market share in the US is by keeping
their US prices relatively stable, thus lowering the company's profit
which is reported in Euros. Just how is that a problem for the US and
the dollar? And not for the Euro based countries? It isn't without
reason that so many EU countries have consistently high unemployment
and slow growing ecomies.

Third, if the so-called problem of the dollar is only the balance of
trade deficit, Earl the dumb is totally unaware of the effect of the
budget deficit which has much more effect. Just where is the market
for all the EU goods to displace that which the US buys? You mention
the US budget, where Earl the dumb is oblivious to it, and you are a
lot closer to the truth than he is. It has much more of an impact on
the dollar's value over time than the trade deficit, but knowing him,
he probably doesn't know the difference between the two anyway.

Fourth, the part about France is undoubtedly correct.

jbk

On Mon, 30 May 2005 06:44:34 +0200, Mxsmanic <[email protected]>
wrote:

    >lola writes:
    >> We heard the Euro would weaken. The last time we were in Paris the Euro
    >> went from $0.85 all the way up to $1.29. We had to leave, we couldn't
    >> afford it. We miss it and would like to return...is it bad to hope for
    >> a weaker Euro?
    >No, but it's bad to hope for a drop in value of any currency to match
    >the drop in value of the dollar, which is being driven down by U.S.
    >economic problems. It's not a matter of the euro being worth too much;
    >it's a matter of the dollar losing its value. And so the real problem
    >is the loss in value of the dollar. Driving the euro down would be
    >committing two wrongs to make a right, which wouldn't be sensible.

Wrong. As I said, there are two sides to this equation and the weaker
dollar helps US exports and economic growth and, conversely, hurts
that of the EU countries. Just go ask those EU companies whose
profits are getting whacked so much if it's not a matter of the Euro
being worth too much and see what answer you get. Of course, if you
are a tourist, you want a stronger dollar because you want your travel
to be cheaper in dollar terms, but then you might return to the US and
find out you have lost your job because it has been eliminated by
cheaper imports.

jbk

On Mon, 30 May 2005 06:01:56 GMT, "Bill McKee"
<[email protected]> wrote:

    >"Mxsmanic" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    >news:[email protected].. .
    >> lola writes:
    >>> We heard the Euro would weaken. The last time we were in Paris the Euro
    >>> went from $0.85 all the way up to $1.29. We had to leave, we couldn't
    >>> afford it. We miss it and would like to return...is it bad to hope for
    >>> a weaker Euro?
    >> No, but it's bad to hope for a drop in value of any currency to match
    >> the drop in value of the dollar, which is being driven down by U.S.
    >> economic problems. It's not a matter of the euro being worth too much;
    >> it's a matter of the dollar losing its value. And so the real problem
    >> is the loss in value of the dollar. Driving the euro down would be
    >> committing two wrongs to make a right, which wouldn't be sensible.
    >> --
    >> Transpose hotmail and mxsmanic in my e-mail address to reach me directly.
    >Actually it is the US Fed not supporting the $ against the Euro. Much more
    >economic problems in Europe. Our GNP is growing at a nice 3.5% rate.

Yeah, due in part to the problems of that weak dollar Earl the dumb
prattles on about.

jbk

On Mon, 30 May 2005 13:09:47 +0200, nitram <[email protected]> wrote:

    >On 30 May 2005 03:32:12 -0700, [email protected] wrote:
    >>nitram wrote:
    >>> On 30 May 2005 02:52:45 -0700, [email protected] wrote:
    >>> >help, europe has been plunged into a crisis, what can be done to save
    >>> >the continent ?
    >>>
    >>> PLAN B?
    >>retail therapy with my worthless Euros ?
    >Total value of Dutch house mortgages is equal to 95% of GNP.
    >DON'T PANIC!

Making almost the entire Dutch GNP house mortgages. What ever
happened to the cheese, beer and tulips?

Tom Peel

[email protected] wrote:
    > On Mon, 30 May 2005 06:44:34 +0200, Mxsmanic <[email protected]>
    > wrote:
    >
    >
    >>lola writes:
    >>>We heard the Euro would weaken. The last time we were in Paris the Euro
    >>>went from $0.85 all the way up to $1.29. We had to leave, we couldn't
    >>>afford it. We miss it and would like to return...is it bad to hope for
    >>>a weaker Euro?
    >>No, but it's bad to hope for a drop in value of any currency to match
    >>the drop in value of the dollar, which is being driven down by U.S.
    >>economic problems. It's not a matter of the euro being worth too much;
    >>it's a matter of the dollar losing its value. And so the real problem
    >>is the loss in value of the dollar. Driving the euro down would be
    >>committing two wrongs to make a right, which wouldn't be sensible.
    >
    >
    > Wrong. As I said, there are two sides to this equation and the weaker
    > dollar helps US exports and economic growth and, conversely, hurts
    > that of the EU countries. Just go ask those EU companies whose
    > profits are getting whacked so much if it's not a matter of the Euro
    > being worth too much and see what answer you get. Of course, if you
    > are a tourist, you want a stronger dollar because you want your travel
    > to be cheaper in dollar terms, but then you might return to the US and
    > find out you have lost your job because it has been eliminated by
    > cheaper imports.

If you compare the Dollar-to-Euro exchange rate over the past 5 years
with the figures for European growthrate and unemployment, you'll see
there's a direct correlation.
T.

Earl Evleth

On 30/05/05 18:54, in article [email protected], "Tom Peel"
<[email protected]> wrote:

    > If you compare the Dollar-to-Euro exchange rate over the past 5 years
    > with the figures for European growthrate and unemployment, you'll see
    > there's a direct correlation.

The exchange value of the dollar will not have much to do
with what Europe does but with what the USA does. Europe, globally, is not
deficitaire with regard to the balance of trade. So from that standpoint the
euro is at equilibrium. The US dollar is not, and strongly so and has been
for a long time. This latter results in vast amounts of dollars being
shipped "overseas" and eventually converted into US Government bonds. The
world is awash in dollars. Sometimes this makes no difference but there is
a tendency to convert and buy other currency with them, not merely
buy US bonds or invest this money back in America. So the dollar will
be perpetually weak overall, occasionally stronger. Its value vis-à-vis
freely traded currencies will yo-yo at times.

So with regard to the euro, now at 1.25, it was 1.35 and it was 0.8 a couple
of years ago. That is yo-yo. Before it yo-yoed with regard to the franc.
With regard to the franc it varied between 3.9 and around 10 over the years
we have been in France.

It will continue to yo-yo. Especially if one has a yo-yo President.

Earl

Mxsmanic

[email protected] writes:

    > Second, it is absurd to say that the problem of the dollar (whatever
    > problem that is supposed to be) has nothing to do with the Euro.

The problem with the dollar has everything to do with the United States,
and very little to do with anything else.

    > Fools mainly think that a so-called weak dollar is a problem. In
    > fact, it is an adjustment mechanism for an economy and generally gets
    > "weaker" when that country's economy is doing BETTER than those of
    > countries whose currencies are getting "stronger."

Uh-huh. Time will tell.

--
Transpose hotmail and mxsmanic in my e-mail address to reach me directly.

Earl Evleth

On 30/05/05 19:26, in article [email protected],
"Mxsmanic" <[email protected]> wrote:

    > [email protected] writes:
    >
    >> Second, it is absurd to say that the problem of the dollar (whatever
    >> problem that is supposed to be) has nothing to do with the Euro.
    >
    > The problem with the dollar has everything to do with the United States,
    > and very little to do with anything else.
    >
    >> Fools mainly think that a so-called weak dollar is a problem. In
    >> fact, it is an adjustment mechanism for an economy and generally gets
    >> "weaker" when that country's economy is doing BETTER than those of
    >> countries whose currencies are getting "stronger."
    >
    > Uh-huh. Time will tell.

It already has. The dollar was yo-yoed for years. it lost value vis-vis
the DM and Swiss France on a steady basis.

The value of the dollar is also market determined on the exchange markets.
There are only several places the dollar can go. It can be held as a reserve
or sent back either in the form of general investment or specifically into
US government bonds. The latter has the advantage in that is does not have
to be "managed". Buying GM or Ford Motor bonds can be more dangerous.
Buying Enron would have been been more dangerous. Buying US real estate
right now might not be wise. So the safe haven are the bonds.

The world is awash in dollars, it is not awash in euros.

Earl

Go Fig

In article <[email protected]>, Mxsmanic
<[email protected]> wrote:

    > [email protected] writes:
    >
    > > Second, it is absurd to say that the problem of the dollar (whatever
    > > problem that is supposed to be) has nothing to do with the Euro.
    >
    > The problem with the dollar has everything to do with the United States,
    > and very little to do with anything else.


Your wrong. China has undervalued its currency more than 30%, it is
pegged to the dollar artificially, this has huge consequences on
balance of trade.

jay
Mon May 30, 2005
mailto:[email protected]


    >
    > > Fools mainly think that a so-called weak dollar is a problem. In
    > > fact, it is an adjustment mechanism for an economy and generally gets
    > > "weaker" when that country's economy is doing BETTER than those of
    > > countries whose currencies are getting "stronger."
    >
    > Uh-huh. Time will tell.

Earl Evleth

On 30/05/05 19:45, in article 300520051045245704%[email protected], "Go Fig"
<[email protected]> wrote:

    >> The problem with the dollar has everything to do with the United States,
    >> and very little to do with anything else.
    >
    >
    > Your wrong. China has undervalued its currency more than 30%, it is
    > pegged to the dollar artificially, this has huge consequences on
    > balance of trade.


Eventually it will have to yield. What will they do with all those dollars?
They hold hundreds of billion is US bonds. Eventually these will devalue in
face of the rise of their own money.

gplux

There is little movement today. Remember bank holidays in UK and USA. However the vote was expected to be a no and the market has already taken account of that during the last couple of weeks.
Watch Holland next.
gplux

jbk

On Mon, 30 May 2005 19:19:49 +0200, Earl Evleth <[email protected]>
wrote:

    >On 30/05/05 18:54, in article [email protected], "Tom Peel"
    ><[email protected]> wrote:
    >> If you compare the Dollar-to-Euro exchange rate over the past 5 years
    >> with the figures for European growthrate and unemployment, you'll see
    >> there's a direct correlation.
    >The exchange value of the dollar will not have much to do
    >with what Europe does but with what the USA does. Europe, globally, is not
    >deficitaire with regard to the balance of trade. So from that standpoint the
    >euro is at equilibrium. The US dollar is not, and strongly so and has been
    >for a long time. This latter results in vast amounts of dollars being
    >shipped "overseas" and eventually converted into US Government bonds. The
    >world is awash in dollars. Sometimes this makes no difference but there is
    >a tendency to convert and buy other currency with them, not merely
    >buy US bonds or invest this money back in America. So the dollar will
    >be perpetually weak overall, occasionally stronger. Its value vis-à-vis
    >freely traded currencies will yo-yo at times.

A typical Evleth babbling that even contradicts the point he claims to
make. Sometimes this matters but other times it doesn't. That just
makes it coincidental doesn't it moron? There have been plenty of
times during my lifetime when the dollar has been both weak and
strong, yet I can't think of a single year where the US had a trade
surplus since the 1960s. So, if there was a direct correlation, which
of course there is not, it would have been continually weak wouldn't
it idiot? This is just more Evleth babbling when, proven to be wrong,
he comes up with bullshit like this trying to somehow turn it around.
Complete bullshit.

    >So with regard to the euro, now at 1.25, it was 1.35 and it was 0.8 a couple
    >of years ago. That is yo-yo. Before it yo-yoed with regard to the franc.
    >With regard to the franc it varied between 3.9 and around 10 over the years
    >we have been in France.
    >It will continue to yo-yo. Especially if one has a yo-yo President.

The only yo yo around here is you and the coterie of idiots.

jbk

On Mon, 30 May 2005 19:26:04 +0200, Mxsmanic <[email protected]>
wrote:

    >[email protected] writes:
    >> Second, it is absurd to say that the problem of the dollar (whatever
    >> problem that is supposed to be) has nothing to do with the Euro.
    >The problem with the dollar has everything to do with the United States,
    >and very little to do with anything else.

A statement directly contradicted by the facts. And I ask again ace.
Just what problems are you talking about? Our low inflation ones?
Our low employment ones? Which?

    >> Fools mainly think that a so-called weak dollar is a problem. In
    >> fact, it is an adjustment mechanism for an economy and generally gets
    >> "weaker" when that country's economy is doing BETTER than those of
    >> countries whose currencies are getting "stronger."
    >Uh-huh. Time will tell.

This has been proven so many times over the years that time has long
since told. You, like Evleth, apparently know nothing at all about
international economics do you?