Coronavirus
Sep 11th 2021, 1:07 am
#1036
Home and Happy
Joined: Dec 2002
Location: Keep true friends and puppets close, trust no-one else...
Posts: 93,814
Re: Coronavirus
indeed, indeed it’s just so sad the Govt here have been caught asleep at the wheel in this ‘year of the vaccine’ after last year’s success,
In the daily self congratulation and sneering podium sessions no mention that despite this supposedly ‘world leading vaccine roll out’ , we’ve only this month moved one off the bottom of the OECD standings in % double jabbed, above Costa Rica and in sight of Mexico, with Spain lending us some vaccines to ensure we don’t run out.
With the Aussies committed to opening up with 70/80% fully vaccinated, it’s difficult to see how we can hold out any different.
In the daily self congratulation and sneering podium sessions no mention that despite this supposedly ‘world leading vaccine roll out’ , we’ve only this month moved one off the bottom of the OECD standings in % double jabbed, above Costa Rica and in sight of Mexico, with Spain lending us some vaccines to ensure we don’t run out.
With the Aussies committed to opening up with 70/80% fully vaccinated, it’s difficult to see how we can hold out any different.
Sep 11th 2021, 10:27 am
#1038
Forum Regular
Joined: Aug 2021
Posts: 247
Re: Coronavirus
Gladys is a national embarrassment, her judgement is seriously flawed and she seems to lurch from one bad decision to another
Sep 11th 2021, 8:56 pm
#1040
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Jan 2008
Location: permanently locked down
Posts: 733
Re: Coronavirus
Maybe, but with vaccines out there, less people are going to be committed to these repeated regular lockdowns.
Ultimately we’ll need to face the fact there isn’t yet smallpox type vaccine out there, but these vaccines are substantially bringing things under control.
However also increasingly people are still getting CV19 with less symptoms, making back to zero, and trying to maintain that unrealistic
Ultimately we’ll need to face the fact there isn’t yet smallpox type vaccine out there, but these vaccines are substantially bringing things under control.
However also increasingly people are still getting CV19 with less symptoms, making back to zero, and trying to maintain that unrealistic
Sep 11th 2021, 11:24 pm
#1041
Truth is the safest lie.
Joined: Jul 2008
Location: @ the beach.
Posts: 7,243
Re: Coronavirus
The lockdown strategy was reasonable initially until vaccine rollouts got underway but it's a short-term solution to a long-term problem. From a fiscal and economic perspective it's not sustainable.
Similarly closing international borders.
Similarly closing international borders.
Sep 12th 2021, 11:16 am
#1042
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Jan 2008
Location: permanently locked down
Posts: 733
Re: Coronavirus
When vaccine finally rolled out, 80% vaccinated and looking to open borders, we shouldn't be needing 'em.
This latest lockdown, wouldn't have been necessary if we'd gone hard n early on the vaccine. However there was no alternative, 3 1/2 weeks ago.
We'll await tomorrow's Auckland lockdown extension decision, already getting the fear that we're going have another 2 weeks lockdown level 4 medicine
Looking around today, many are already behaving as if we're in Level 3, so I don't think further extension of L4 is going to go down too well.Elimination is not a feasible long term strategy. We don't want to be having lockdowns into next year after a couple of new cases and learning again in the daily podium sessions that the Easter Bunny is an essential worker.
Sep 12th 2021, 10:39 pm
#1043
Forum Regular
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 293
Re: Coronavirus
Too true. With politicians from both sides now telling us that we should planning to move these MIQ hotels out of Auckland, that horse bolted long ago. No point perusing a strategy now for yesterday's war, we shouldn't be needing these hotels.
When vaccine finally rolled out, 80% vaccinated and looking to open borders, we shouldn't be needing 'em.
This latest lockdown, wouldn't have been necessary if we'd gone hard n early on the vaccine. However there was no alternative, 3 1/2 weeks ago.
We'll await tomorrow's Auckland lockdown extension decision, already getting the fear that we're going have another 2 weeks lockdown level 4 medicine Looking around today, many are already behaving as if we're in Level 3, so I don't think further extension of L4 is going to go down too well.
Elimination is not a feasible long term strategy. We don't want to be having lockdowns into next year after a couple of new cases and learning again in the daily podium sessions that the Easter Bunny is an essential worker.
When vaccine finally rolled out, 80% vaccinated and looking to open borders, we shouldn't be needing 'em.
This latest lockdown, wouldn't have been necessary if we'd gone hard n early on the vaccine. However there was no alternative, 3 1/2 weeks ago.
We'll await tomorrow's Auckland lockdown extension decision, already getting the fear that we're going have another 2 weeks lockdown level 4 medicine
Looking around today, many are already behaving as if we're in Level 3, so I don't think further extension of L4 is going to go down too well.Elimination is not a feasible long term strategy. We don't want to be having lockdowns into next year after a couple of new cases and learning again in the daily podium sessions that the Easter Bunny is an essential worker.
England has 80% adult pop vaccinated plus the antibods with people that's had covid. We still getting a rolling average of 38k new cases a day and 9k hospitals and over 1k in ICU.
They way jacinda talks Bout saving every kiwi from the virus and not letting it rip you will still be in lockdown in 20 years time.
Public opion will start changing about now after a month in lockdown people will be getting pissed off with it and wanting to get on with it.
NZ is going to need to try and find a happy medium with the virus like the UK is doing now. but its not going be a easy road finding it as there has been no exposure to it. They should have invested in the health care system and prepared for it when it rips and you start getting cycles and waves like all the other countries have been experiencing.
Sep 12th 2021, 11:19 pm
#1044
Truth is the safest lie.
Joined: Jul 2008
Location: @ the beach.
Posts: 7,243
Re: Coronavirus
Just to mention that scaled by population if New Zealand was in the same situation as the UK then 81 people would be on ventilations beds and 623 would be in hospital. Just for reference in August MOH reported 334 ventilators and 358 ICU beds. I don't know about overall hospital bed capacity overall unfortunately.
Edit to add:
Last year overall deaths, on an age-adjusted basis (fairest comparison), increased 13.2% from the prior year (2019) in the UK. So we're not talking a massive greater number of overall deaths. However the vaccination campaign only really got underway this year (2021) in the UK and the BMJ seems to suggest this is roughly halved by vaccination so we should expect deaths to rise by about 7%ish over the last normal year of data (2019.) That's not 7% of people dying that's a 7% increase over background levels. There are a few other factors like the UK has an older population increasing their risk, NZ has higher rates of obesity which may cancel that out. Typically pandemics last 3 to 5 years so you need to also take that into account here.
If anyone has a better idea now would be the time to speak up. We can do pre-border testing, border testing, post-border testing, mandatory home quarantine etc. The truth is that, as we've seen, when it's out of the box it's out. I doubt we'll do another lockdown if borders are open. There might be some possibility to stagger international reopening by region or of one island to just keep a foot over the brake pedal for a month or two and try to conserve capacity. This will probably be politically unpalatable any which way but I don't see how staying locked down for longer might change the situation, there simply doesn't appear to be a miracle vaccine or drug on the horizon. Our expectations and plans must be firmly rooted in reality and I don't see how we can completely escape.
Edit to add:
Last year overall deaths, on an age-adjusted basis (fairest comparison), increased 13.2% from the prior year (2019) in the UK. So we're not talking a massive greater number of overall deaths. However the vaccination campaign only really got underway this year (2021) in the UK and the BMJ seems to suggest this is roughly halved by vaccination so we should expect deaths to rise by about 7%ish over the last normal year of data (2019.) That's not 7% of people dying that's a 7% increase over background levels. There are a few other factors like the UK has an older population increasing their risk, NZ has higher rates of obesity which may cancel that out. Typically pandemics last 3 to 5 years so you need to also take that into account here.
If anyone has a better idea now would be the time to speak up. We can do pre-border testing, border testing, post-border testing, mandatory home quarantine etc. The truth is that, as we've seen, when it's out of the box it's out. I doubt we'll do another lockdown if borders are open. There might be some possibility to stagger international reopening by region or of one island to just keep a foot over the brake pedal for a month or two and try to conserve capacity. This will probably be politically unpalatable any which way but I don't see how staying locked down for longer might change the situation, there simply doesn't appear to be a miracle vaccine or drug on the horizon. Our expectations and plans must be firmly rooted in reality and I don't see how we can completely escape.
Last edited by Charismatic; Sep 13th 2021 at 1:14 am.
Sep 13th 2021, 3:00 am
#1046
Truth is the safest lie.
Joined: Jul 2008
Location: @ the beach.
Posts: 7,243
Re: Coronavirus
Sep 13th 2021, 5:23 am
#1047
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Jul 2007
Location: bottom of the world
Posts: 4,533
Re: Coronavirus
Well nothing to get excited about from today's news conference from Jacinda Ganghi.
No change in anything anywhere ever again as long as there is 1 rogue case in the country. Well not the whole country, just Auckland, because I would bet my house that if it was a case down here in the wops, it would be business as usual everywhere else
When thrown a potential hot potato question about the low vaccination uptake by Maori she flicked it on to Ashley Bloomfield with all the skill poise of a Ronaldo step over.
There were furrowed brows when she was called bolshy by one particularly brave or stupid young man, and from that point on I was carefully watching for a subtle nod of the head and listening for a muffled pfft pfft as one of her Men in black discretely took him out with two to the head. 😪 🔫
So another week of status quo with no guarantees that its going to change
No change in anything anywhere ever again as long as there is 1 rogue case in the country. Well not the whole country, just Auckland, because I would bet my house that if it was a case down here in the wops, it would be business as usual everywhere else
When thrown a potential hot potato question about the low vaccination uptake by Maori she flicked it on to Ashley Bloomfield with all the skill poise of a Ronaldo step over.
There were furrowed brows when she was called bolshy by one particularly brave or stupid young man, and from that point on I was carefully watching for a subtle nod of the head and listening for a muffled pfft pfft as one of her Men in black discretely took him out with two to the head. 😪 🔫
So another week of status quo with no guarantees that its going to change
Last edited by Justcol; Sep 13th 2021 at 6:10 am.
Sep 13th 2021, 9:40 am
#1048
Forum Regular
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 293
Re: Coronavirus
Just to mention that scaled by population if New Zealand was in the same situation as the UK then 81 people would be on ventilations beds and 623 would be in hospital. Just for reference in August MOH reported 334 ventilators and 358 ICU beds. I don't know about overall hospital bed capacity overall unfortunately.
That's where places like the UK fooked up and NZ is going have problems aswell.
im just using these numbers as a example.They have just say 8k ICU beds but 7980 are used day to Day pre Covid so really you have 20 spare.
This is why the UK and China built all them make shifts hospitals with cabins and ventilators in them. So the covid patients were using the extra 1ks of new beds. NZ ain't done nuffin and had 18 months to prepare for the first waves.
Edit to add:
Last year overall deaths, on an age-adjusted basis (fairest comparison), increased 13.2% from the prior year (2019) in the UK. So we're not talking a massive greater number of overall deaths. However the vaccination campaign only really got underway this year (2021) in the UK and the BMJ seems to suggest this is roughly halved by vaccination so we should expect deaths to rise by about 7%ish over the last normal year of data (2019.) That's not 7% of people dying that's a 7% increase over background levels. There are a few other factors like the UK has an older population increasing their risk, NZ has higher rates of obesity which may cancel that out. Typically pandemics last 3 to 5 years so you need to also take that into account here.
If anyone has a better idea now would be the time to speak up. We can do pre-border testing, border testing, post-border testing, mandatory home quarantine etc. The truth is that, as we've seen, when it's out of the box it's out. I doubt we'll do another lockdown if borders are open. There might be some possibility to stagger international reopening by region or of one island to just keep a foot over the brake pedal for a month or two and try to conserve capacity. This will probably be politically unpalatable any which way but I don't see how staying locked down for longer might change the situation, there simply doesn't appear to be a miracle vaccine or drug on the horizon. Our expectations and plans must be firmly rooted in reality and I don't see how we can completely escape.
That's where places like the UK fooked up and NZ is going have problems aswell.
im just using these numbers as a example.They have just say 8k ICU beds but 7980 are used day to Day pre Covid so really you have 20 spare.
This is why the UK and China built all them make shifts hospitals with cabins and ventilators in them. So the covid patients were using the extra 1ks of new beds. NZ ain't done nuffin and had 18 months to prepare for the first waves.
Edit to add:
Last year overall deaths, on an age-adjusted basis (fairest comparison), increased 13.2% from the prior year (2019) in the UK. So we're not talking a massive greater number of overall deaths. However the vaccination campaign only really got underway this year (2021) in the UK and the BMJ seems to suggest this is roughly halved by vaccination so we should expect deaths to rise by about 7%ish over the last normal year of data (2019.) That's not 7% of people dying that's a 7% increase over background levels. There are a few other factors like the UK has an older population increasing their risk, NZ has higher rates of obesity which may cancel that out. Typically pandemics last 3 to 5 years so you need to also take that into account here.
If anyone has a better idea now would be the time to speak up. We can do pre-border testing, border testing, post-border testing, mandatory home quarantine etc. The truth is that, as we've seen, when it's out of the box it's out. I doubt we'll do another lockdown if borders are open. There might be some possibility to stagger international reopening by region or of one island to just keep a foot over the brake pedal for a month or two and try to conserve capacity. This will probably be politically unpalatable any which way but I don't see how staying locked down for longer might change the situation, there simply doesn't appear to be a miracle vaccine or drug on the horizon. Our expectations and plans must be firmly rooted in reality and I don't see how we can completely escape.
im just using these numbers as a example.They have just say 8k ICU beds but 7980 are used day to Day pre Covid so really you have 20 spare.
This is why the UK and China built all them make shifts hospitals with cabins and ventilators in them. So the covid patients were using the extra 1ks of new beds. NZ ain't done nuffin and had 18 months to prepare for the first waves.
I reckon. you will find in NZ when it gets let rip like the UK. you will be in and out lockdowns the same as the UK has been the past year.
I don't mean jacinda, hard core 4.5 lockdowns. everyone in respirator. where you need Ring Ashley if you want a pooh.
It will be more like the UK 's lockdowns. level 2-3 for about 5 or 6 months to establish a base level that NZ can cope and manage the same as the UK is doing just now. easying restrictions bit by bit.
If you just up the gates and let it rip even with the 80% vaccine I think there will be problems.
Last edited by jarv5116; Sep 13th 2021 at 10:03 am.
Sep 13th 2021, 12:27 pm
#1049
Truth is the safest lie.
Joined: Jul 2008
Location: @ the beach.
Posts: 7,243
Re: Coronavirus
The vaccine does substantially reduce hospitalisations (and deaths) so I doubt we'll see a situation as bad as the UK early this year even. I wish there was an alternate scenario but we can't go on like this for years.
Sep 14th 2021, 12:59 am
#1050
Truth is the safest lie.
Joined: Jul 2008
Location: @ the beach.
Posts: 7,243
Re: Coronavirus
