If I remember correctly, the UKIP want an Australian-style points system and no open borders to the EU. Which is pretty much what we had to go through to get to Canada.

Can't see any chance of them winning, but hopefully they'll get enough seats to ensure that Cameron doesn't get a majority.

Hmm. They also want to abolish anti discrimination legislation, and move away from the European Court of Human Rights. They are against gay marriage, and agree with stopping foreign aid to third world countries.

The facts are, and I repeat, the facts, that immigrants are net contributors to the UK economy. Yes, there are bad apples, but they will continue under any type of immigration system. People will always find a way to abuse the system. But that is not really the problem. It's preying on peoples fears- people who are generally not smart enough to see that it is a charade.

What UKIP has failed to acknowledge is that the growing income equality, which is not caused by immigration. Not surprising though, as Farrage is an ex city banker. He knows where his bread is buttered. UKIP voters are largely poorly educated and low income workers. Curbs to immigration will do nothing to improve their situation.

The way to deal with growing immigration is to continue to invest in public services, new housing, etc... much like Canada/Australia. The points system comment is a red herring. Most immigrants come to the country to work, not to scrounge, evidenced by the aforementioned fact that they make a net contribution to the economy.

Scottish MPs have been prominent in many UK governments in the past so that is nothing new.

The net contribution claim is rather dubious. It depends which figures you choose to believe. A significant drain is much more likely.

Migration Watch UK: News: Comment on CReAM’s revised report 'The Fiscal Effects of Immigration to the UK'

Clearly UKIP has risen due to the failure of the other main parties to manage immigration adequately. It does appear the choice is remain within the EU and accept no controls on immigration within the EU or leave the EU and control immigration from those countries.

UKIP stand no chance of getting enough seats to influence any of the other parties, the best they can hope for is about 8.

Your source is migration watch?

Let me see if I can find contrasting information from "whyimmigrationissogood.com"

It's extremely unlikely they would get as many as 8. 1, 2 or 3 maybe.

Apparently the Greens want an open border, and to ban rabbit hutches...

Ban rabbit hutches? Bloody hell, that's tantermount to anarchy!!!

Yes. The UK is a very attractive economically, and even in work, there is a huge pull on benefits (in-work) benefits, definite wage compression at the lower end, and pressure on housing/schools and healthcare. We might be a victim of our own success.

back to the OP, are we that close to reality?

Election 2015 poll tracker - BBC News

Nope. Looks like some Labour supporters have become a bit more 'nationalist' (SNP and UKIP) since moving to the Great White North.

Good link though. Very consistent polling isn't it.

It would be very unlikely, and because of the division of seats between the four nations probably not even possible, for any of the Separatist parties (SNP, PC, SDLP, SF) in Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland to form a Westminster government, in much the same way as the Bloc Quebecois would be unlikely to form an Ottawa government. But there's no reason at all why such parties should not form part of a coalition, or at least lend support to a minority government in a less formal way. The Ulster Unionist parties did so in previous Conservative administrations (for example in the five or six months before the 1997 election after successive by-election losses had removed a slim majority), and the SDLP have traditionally voted with the government in a Labour-led administration (although without looking it up I couldn't say whether they've ever actually propped up a minority by doing so).

But, and it's an important but, there's a strong history of MPs from Scotland and Wales leading UK governments. Lloyd George, Douglas-Home, MacDonald, Blair, Brown... David Lloyd George famously spoke English as a second language (to Welsh). I also didn't know until I saw it on a list of prime ministers' birthplaces just now that Andrew Bonar Law was from New Brunswick

I heard Ed Milliband speaking on Question Time last night. Hasn't he got a weird voice! Is it adenoids?

Weird voice, weird everything. Pleased Labour stuck with him though, otherwise they might get back in power.