man_called_Horse

see post

http://britishexpats.com/forum/showt...68#post7154368

well this is the projected statistic for 08/09 obviously before the changes, but the occupation list for Victoria was reduced (slashed) and others states could follow which means more people might be thinking of state sponsorship but actually getting it is a different story.

Malikkhi

Nice work man ..........keep it up

letusenjoy79

Has any Nov. 08 applicant been allocated CO/issued VISA in 2009?

natalieml

I'm bumping this one as i'd like to know the answer too! - Anyone been fast tracked?

letusenjoy79

I hope you are going to get your CO and VISA soon

natalieml

Thanks - I hope so too Have got State Sponsorship from SA so keeping my fingers crossed that I get a CO before 13th Feb! I've sent the police checks off and got the medicals booked for begining of feb so I should be ready to roll when we get allocated a CO!

Good luck to everyone else too!

Danish

Reading from different threads it seems that CO may be getting allocated for the ppl who have elodged in the monthe of June, July & August, still not heard anyone who elodged in September

letusenjoy79

Hi,
So applicants of Nov. 2008 are also being considerd by DIAC now(http://www.beupdate.co.uk/visa.php?month=Nov&year=08). Hope that we all get VISA soon
Regards
Sanjay

Jhonnywalker

Looking at the other threads posted in this forum about the latest processing updates - looks like being on CSL might not make such difference for us (Nov '08 applicants) with respect to the processing times.

If the CO allocation starts from August 07 - then we might be in for a bit longer wait. But to think from a positive angle -how many of the applicants from Aug - 07 would be qualifying for the CSL? Not sure if we would get a significant lead here..

JW

man_called_Horse

Please see FAQ 17 (attached) it states 23,424 applicants in 07/08 program year were on the CSL.

from the stats let do the maths

Total Skills Migration for 07/08 program year 108540

CSL accounted for 23424 or 21.5 %

If we factor in the current program year 08/09 that of 133500 that the actual number of applicants that will qualify for CSL

21.5 % of 133,500 is 28,702

So in theory the projected skilled visa allocation for the current program is

Independent skilled 56%
Employer Sponsored 21%
State/Territory Sponsored 7%
Family Sponsored 10.7%
Business 5%

If we assume that the percentage of CSL would be approx the same for ENS/ State/Territory Sponsored compared to Independent and remove it from the total as a whole

28702- (21% +7%) = 20665 CSL 175/176 Family sponsored applicants for the current program year.

Considering that more than half the program year is complete that would leave about 10,000 CSL applicants to be processed from 13th Feb.

if 21% of the total Skilled visa is CSL the that would be true for 175/176 Family sponsored

Independent 175 = 74630
+
Family 176 = 14300
= 88930

Since half the program year is complete 88930/2=44450

So approx 44,450 - the 10,000 CSL = 34450

As it stands ASPC will have to process

CSL =10,000 up to the end of June

175/176 Family Sp. = 34450

The new program year could have new changes and maybe bring restrictions at the time of the application (reduction of occupations on the SOL) rather than in the processing and so the acceptance of actual applications could slow down and the current applications could speed up.

Jhonnywalker

That was very very cool. So, approx 10,000 CSL applications needs to be processed by DIAC within June. Though it is not necessary that a decision should be taken by June, at least having a CO will not be a bad progress at all..

Cheers,
JW

man_called_Horse

Only a guesstimate and from analysis from the statistics which might only be approximate. see below

approximate
adjective |əˈpräksəmit|
close to the actual, but not completely accurate or exact : the calculations are very approximate.
verb |-ˌmāt| |əˈprɑksəˈmeɪt| |əˈprɒksɪmeɪt| [ intrans. ]
come close or be similar to something in quality, nature, or quantity : a leasing agreement approximating to ownership | [ trans. ] reality can be approximated by computational techniques.
• [ trans. ] estimate or calculate (a quantity) fairly accurately : I had to approximate the weight of my horse.

letusenjoy79

Thanks for a nice statistic man_called_Horse,
So as per your calculations, we the Nov.08 applicants(on CSL) do have any chance of getting CO/VISA by June 09??

letusenjoy79

Hi,
It appears that all of us(November applicants except State sponsored/nominated) have to wait for some more time. Now CSL applicants of 175 who had applied after September 2007 have to wait till 20th March, 2009 before anything new happens as per aspc. It appears thats lots and lots of people are on CSL. Can anyone guess that by 30th June,2009 how much far DIAC would proceed?

eurosyl

When we lodged our application there was no reason to believe that it would be picked up before July anyways. As far as I can see CSL is being fasttracked and there are no signs it will result in a slower handling for those on the CSL as anticipated when lodging the application. So why bother speculating *shrug*