The Virus

Old Mar 24th 2020, 1:40 am
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Default Re: The Virus

Originally Posted by Red_Wine_Fairy View Post
Wait, a couple of posts again, you were full of nostalgia for the measles parties and thinking parents must be longing for virus-parties. Now you're complaining that 2000 people stepped off a plague ship onto your turf. What's the problem - I thought you couldn't wait to get it over with, like Mark Twain.

You guys should come over to mine after all this dies down. I plan to have a great big celebratory polio-party - come along and build up some herd immunity! Bring your own iron lung, mind....
Fair enough, Fairy, but 1) the situation is changing just about every day, and 2) we have to distinguish between the actual danger to life (not all that great, even now) and the hysterical panic (out of control). I myself assess the actual danger in "BD" terms. BD stands for the "Black Death" of 700 years ago, which itself warrants a BD-10 on my scale. The Corona Virus warrants about a BD-2, at the moment. That may rise to a BD-4, I would say, on present indication, but no higher. The panic I would rank as BD-9, which is absurd.

I have not trademarked my BD scale, so anybody posting on this thread is free to tell the rest of us his or her rank for the actual of ten days or so ago and the actual now, and the panic.
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Old Mar 24th 2020, 5:37 pm
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Default Re: The Virus

Originally Posted by uk_grenada View Post
Its a strange period, every day is like a sunday, one can walk the beaches and countryside alone, theres no panic or shortages, and the lack of tourists means its actually pretty easy for restaurants and outdoor bars to do social distancing, so in a way these are civilised times.

However all the sensible predictions are 12 months - maybe longer - so dont believe in any restrictions unless they are sustainable, dont think of planning anything much, and watch as global winners and losers emerge. One thing - i think america is going to be shown profoundly wanting. The leader of singapore described a tripod of support - healthcare, economy/governmwnt and social capital or the will of the people, and without any of these, chaos. America has no social capital and as a country poor healthcare, and i fear the bug will explode there which may hve far reaching consequences for them.

Saudi Arabia is interesting - they use the virus as a weapon of war, immediately turning the screw on iran and the usa via their main weapon - oil prices.
I've been watching the Trumpet on the news recently and he is the biggest single danger to that country. He is without a doubt, unhinged. From his 'Chinese Virus' remarks, to his attack on a journalist asking a pertinent question and now Dr Fauci has abdandoned him after his ludicrous '15 days and we'll be fine and open for business again' type address. But as Obi Wan Kenobi said "Who is more foolish? The fool or the fool who follows him?". Why doesn't he get challenged on these things?
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Old Mar 24th 2020, 5:39 pm
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Default Re: The Virus

Originally Posted by Gordon Barlow View Post
Fair enough, Fairy, but 1) the situation is changing just about every day, and 2) we have to distinguish between the actual danger to life (not all that great, even now) and the hysterical panic (out of control). I myself assess the actual danger in "BD" terms. BD stands for the "Black Death" of 700 years ago, which itself warrants a BD-10 on my scale. The Corona Virus warrants about a BD-2, at the moment. That may rise to a BD-4, I would say, on present indication, but no higher. The panic I would rank as BD-9, which is absurd.

I have not trademarked my BD scale, so anybody posting on this thread is free to tell the rest of us his or her rank for the actual of ten days or so ago and the actual now, and the panic.
I concur. I had a woman 'social distance' herself from me on SMB yesterday walking home from work. The beach was deserted! Calm doon!!!!
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Old Mar 24th 2020, 5:59 pm
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Default Re: The Virus

I've been sent photos of long lines outside Kirk's and Priced Right. L-o-n-n-g-g lines! Seven till seven curfew now, have you heard?
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Old Mar 24th 2020, 9:19 pm
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Default Re: The Virus

Originally Posted by Jamesy5008 View Post
I concur. I had a woman 'social distance' herself from me on SMB yesterday walking home from work. The beach was deserted! Calm doon!!!!
I'm sure the panic is ruining a lot of people's love-lives! "Getting lucky" probably means NOT taking her home to bed, these days...
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Old Mar 24th 2020, 9:21 pm
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Default Re: The Virus

How about this: Nany countries are now considering draconian restrictions -

Proportionality of response is how politicians and their actions in this will be judged. Right now they can get away with a lot, but had better be aware of the future backlash against them that may be generated if they get it wrong... Consider this truth - the only benefit of draconian measures is to lower the height of the inevitable (eventually) curve to a level that does not overwhelm a countries facilities. If they do draconian things and still fail at that, the fallout for them will not be pleasant.
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Old Mar 25th 2020, 5:19 am
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Default Re: The Virus

Let's face it: we none of us know quite how long this Virus will be pestering us, or quite how dangerous it is. My post #16above gave my opinion on the thing, and this link here helps to put the present situation in perspective. (Assuming its statistics are honest, of course!)
https://www.medindia.net/patients/ca...eath-clock.asp
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Old Mar 25th 2020, 11:11 am
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Default Re: The Virus

Originally Posted by Gordon Barlow View Post
Let's face it: we none of us know quite how long this Virus will be pestering us, or quite how dangerous it is. My post #16above gave my opinion on the thing, and this link here helps to put the present situation in perspective. (Assuming its statistics are honest, of course!)
https://www.medindia.net/patients/ca...eath-clock.asp
Try this link for an interactive- believeable set of numbers

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105
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Old Mar 25th 2020, 11:45 pm
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Default Re: The Virus

Originally Posted by uk_grenada View Post
Try this link for an interactive- believable set of numbers https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105
Well, not all that believable! Those figures are reported cases, not reported deaths.
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Old Mar 25th 2020, 11:57 pm
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Default Re: The Virus

Originally Posted by Gordon Barlow View Post
Well, not all that believable! Those figures are reported cases, not reported deaths.
Not reported cases, confirmed cases, deaths are there too, actually the graph that shows speed of growth is scarier - shows how fast the US is accelerating its cases
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Old Mar 26th 2020, 12:37 am
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Default Re: The Virus

Originally Posted by uk_grenada View Post
Not reported cases, confirmed cases, deaths are there too, actually the graph that shows speed of growth is scarier - shows how fast the US is accelerating its cases
True, but to be confirmed or denied, cases have to be reported - and I suspect that there many thousands in every major country that have not been reported and therefore not confirmed/denied. If that's so, the ration of deaths to "cases" would be much lower - in other words, the survival rate would be much higher. I speak defensively, I suppose, being 80 and in the "vulnerable" bracket. These may be famous last words, but I think I'll survive it if it does catch me. I've been healthy all my life except for a couple of one-offs 45 years ago; and I haven't had the flu since my teenage years; that ought to be enough to bust the statistics! What do you reckon?
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Old Mar 26th 2020, 12:42 am
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Default Re: The Virus

It’s about co-morbidity- if you aren’t suffering from other weakening heart lung or blood issues don’t fear it. Tons of people die if flu every winter but the flu was assisted in most cases by approaching death from other causes.

NHS stat -,you need most services in the last 2 years of life, or said differently, as you slowly fade out...
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Old Mar 26th 2020, 12:45 am
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Default Re: The Virus

There’s a lag but work on 1% of cases will die eventually-if you know 1000 cases are proved and 30 have actually died, where are the ones dying right now and where are the unreported?
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Old Mar 28th 2020, 2:18 pm
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Default Re: The Virus

Originally Posted by uk_grenada View Post
It’s about co-morbidity- if you aren’t suffering from other weakening heart lung or blood issues don’t fear it. Tons of people die if flu every winter but the flu was assisted in most cases by approaching death from other causes.

NHS stat -,you need most services in the last 2 years of life, or said differently, as you slowly fade out...
This. Every day of the week.
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Old Mar 28th 2020, 2:27 pm
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Default Re: The Virus

Take a look at swedens response, they have a slight set of restrictions, but in no way say they can stop or impact it much, the only endgame in town - herd immunity will occur, people will die, life will go on for the vast majority without big upheavals and without ruining their personal or national economy.
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