The Virus

Old Mar 10th 2020, 8:37 pm
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Default The Virus

Strange that nobody has opened a thread on this topic yet... Just for the record, we in Cayman aren't panicking, and there are plenty of bog-rolls available in the supermarkets (as of yesterday!). There's been one report of a visitor who tested positive here, but no confirmation. No flights cancelled yet, but I doubt if that situation will last for long. My son and his three kids have tickets from Norway via Toronto, but he'll be lucky if they make it here without being quarantined in TO.

A couple of cruise ships have been told not to drop anchor here, which is ominous. The good part about that is that the stupid port-proposal seems to be off the agenda for the next few years.

Most people reading this will know that Cayman has only two industries: tourism (both day-trippers and hotel vacationers) and the tax-haven business. If tourism falls away, a lot of people will become unemployed, and many migrant workers will be sent home to Philippines, India, Latin America, etc, and that would have a knock-on effect on local commerce. Our tax-haven business is largely dependent on prosperity in the clients' homelands (mainly the USA), so if that weakens we'll really be in trouble. All except people like me (retired), but even we will be faced with higher everyday prices.

Tough times ahead. BVI and Nassau and other tax-havens in the region will be in the same Coronavirus-infested boat!
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Old Mar 11th 2020, 2:51 pm
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Default Re: The Virus

Well, tourism will be dead for a while, certainly here the authorities have been turning away flights and cruise ships so they do mean business.

I received a report from rathbones on economic impacts Of it and the new saudi oil war, which does not read well for the next year or so, lots of concerns about asian supply chains and yes, the more affluent staying at home more. We are exiting the main tourist season so impacts willl be reduced somewhat.

Upside - holidays in exotic places will be for peanuts in a feŵ months...
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Old Mar 15th 2020, 6:54 pm
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Default Re: The Virus

This is an interesting article on how the cruise lines bully Caribbean islands, in relation to The Virus. Economically, they've got us by the goolies.
https://theintercept.com/2020/03/14/...k9sz1ZXZWEspxo
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Old Mar 15th 2020, 7:13 pm
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Default Re: The Virus

I don’t really buy that, Trinidad and Tobago have closed their ports to all cruise ships, Grenada has refused any boat with more than 2% sick or any passenger from the banned countries.

a statement last year said a cruise ship visit made the same profit for the island as 1 5* hotel room per season so they can all go if they are a burden.
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Old Mar 16th 2020, 10:45 pm
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Default Re: The Virus

Extract from our Premier's speech. He's channelling Winston Churchill, I think!:
To close the Owen Roberts International Airport and the Charles Kirkconnell International Airport for international passenger flights for a temporary period of three weeks, beginning Sunday, 22 March 2020 at 11:59 pm until Sunday, 12 April 2020 at 11:59 pm
Many of us oldies expect to be put under house arrest for weeks and weeks - confined to barracks. I don't get out much anyway, but sheesh!

Here's the local paper's report:
https://www.caymancompass.com/2020/0...l-for-3-weeks/

Last edited by Gordon Barlow; Mar 16th 2020 at 10:47 pm.
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Old Mar 17th 2020, 5:46 pm
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Default Re: The Virus

Countries closing their borders left right and centre, airlines mostly saying they will be technically bankrupt in a few months, politicians flexing muscles and demanding the proles go into home arrest, frankly the nhs statisticians said this stuff is entirely able to delay onset of a pandemic but not to change its outcome.

Frankly INHO its BS except where there is a valid reason to change the shape of the bell curve, and few are trying that for a good reason.

one thing I’m not hearing being talked about , we know that these bugs don’t come in 1 wave but in multiple waves over time/seasons, the more you prevent herd immunity the more waves you get until herd immunity or an inoculation is made freely available . Are they seriously going to do this act several times over the next few years?
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Old Mar 17th 2020, 7:02 pm
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I think this is the way things will be for a long time, grenada. "They", the governments (politicians and senior civil servants) of the world are ratcheting up the controls imposed after the 9/11 hoax. We oldies (I'm 80) will be the first to be put under house-arrest "for our own protection"; even here in Cayman there's talk of that - although they're not actually calling it "house arrest", of course. From this coming Sunday our whole territory will be quarantined, for a trial period of three weeks: no flights in or out, although we're assured that cargo-ships will still be allowed in with the usual suppliers. No cruise-ships, of course. The people most hurt by the new rules are (will be) the low-paid, hourly-paid, transient migrant workers from Jamaica, Philippines, India, etc. I really don't know how they're going to manage.
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Old Mar 17th 2020, 7:15 pm
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las fortunas de la guerra

We live if difficult times.
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Old Mar 18th 2020, 7:34 pm
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Default Re: The Virus

Originally Posted by Gordon Barlow View Post
I think this is the way things will be for a long time, grenada. "They", the governments (politicians and senior civil servants) of the world are ratcheting up the controls imposed after the 9/11 hoax. We oldies (I'm 80) will be the first to be put under house-arrest "for our own protection"; even here in Cayman there's talk of that - although they're not actually calling it "house arrest", of course. From this coming Sunday our whole territory will be quarantined, for a trial period of three weeks: no flights in or out, although we're assured that cargo-ships will still be allowed in with the usual suppliers. No cruise-ships, of course. The people most hurt by the new rules are (will be) the low-paid, hourly-paid, transient migrant workers from Jamaica, Philippines, India, etc. I really don't know how they're going to manage.
Here in another British Overseas Territory,the over 70's are banned from going out and advice is that your family should look after you.
One sister in UK is over 70 so doesn't qualify to go out
Brother and sister in NZ do qualify but best part of 12,000 miles away
However there is a let out, I can go out to visit a doctor or to do food shopping.
So daily visits to the supermarket are OK, Just need to buy minimal food to justify daily visits.
Unfortunately all bars closed so I cannot stop for a refreshing beer going and returning.

Welcome to the world of social media hysterics.

Anyone else remember as kids being sent to play with others who had chicken pox etc to get it over with?

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Old Mar 18th 2020, 8:36 pm
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Default Re: The Virus

Originally Posted by Fredbargate View Post
Anyone else remember as kids being sent to play with others who had chicken pox etc to get it over with?
Yes indeed, Fred! It must be quite tempting for parents to hold virus-parties for their kids the way our parents held measles-parties!

I read in Mark Twain's autobiography how he - 12 years old at the time - deliberately got measles by crawling into bed with his friend who already had it. It was going round the country like wildfire at the time, and he reckoned he'd rather get it over with at the same time as his mate. Very sensible! He wrote that it was the turning point of his life, because his mother was so angry that she pulled him out of school and apprenticed him to a printer's shop. Indirectly, it led him to become a writer, and a very good one too.

I feel sorry for the young folk of today. Not much chance of romance when even a chaste goodnight-kiss is a life-or-death risk! And in my young days I hitched my way around several countries - Australia, England, Scandinavia, New Zealand... Who would dare pick up a hitch-hiker today? More recently, my son met one of his girlfriends on Tinder - a lovely girl; that would never happen today, either. I guess it's dangerous even using pubs as a place to meet. Very sad.
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Old Mar 18th 2020, 8:50 pm
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Default Re: The Virus

They wouldnt dare to close watering holes here, the PM already ‘suggested it’ and that was as far as he would go.

we have plenty of open air places with lots of room, and with no tourists or cruise ships its remarkably civil with 6ft exclusion not an issue.

we have a big medical uni worth 20% of gdp, and its closed and the students removed, thats the biggest impact, so plenty of fruit loops, hot pockets and booze in the stores. Latest cocktail, blend 160 proof rum with aloe vera leaves - organic hand gel...
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Old Mar 22nd 2020, 5:40 am
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Cayman had its first case of the corona... an aged passenger was dropped off here with a heart attack, from one of the cruise ships - the Braemar, I think. The heart attack killed him, but the autopsy disclosed that he had the corona as well. Two of the nurses contracted it too, which is sad. All cruise ships have been banned now, and there will be no flights in or out from this Sunday - except for internal flights. No gatherings larger than 50 people, most restaurants and nightclubs closed, hotels being taken over for use as quarantine refuges, and there's talk of us oldies being put under indefinite house-arrest.

Our population of 70,000 includes 30-40,000 Work Permit holders - migrants from Philippines, India, Central America and the Caribbean mainly,plus from Britain, Europe and North America. As you'd expect, the tourism industry is shot to hell, and a lot of the workers in it will have to be sent home - when flights are allowed and if they can get transit visas through the USA.

My son and his children were scheduled to come over from Norway for a couple of weeks in April, but that's been cancelled. Serious times!
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Old Mar 22nd 2020, 11:59 am
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Its a strange period, every day is like a sunday, one can walk the beaches and countryside alone, theres no panic or shortages, and the lack of tourists means its actually pretty easy for restaurants and outdoor bars to do social distancing, so in a way these are civilised times.

However all the sensible predictions are 12 months - maybe longer - so dont believe in any restrictions unless they are sustainable, dont think of planning anything much, and watch as global winners and losers emerge. One thing - i think america is going to be shown profoundly wanting. The leader of singapore described a tripod of support - healthcare, economy/governmwnt and social capital or the will of the people, and without any of these, chaos. America has no social capital and as a country poor healthcare, and i fear the bug will explode there which may hve far reaching consequences for them.

Saudi Arabia is interesting - they use the virus as a weapon of war, immediately turning the screw on iran and the usa via their main weapon - oil prices.
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Old Mar 23rd 2020, 5:21 pm
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Default Re: The Virus

https://www.caymancompass.com/2020/0..._hsmi=85107150
That's the link to today's newspaper report on the ship that brought the infection to Cayman - including its preceding and subsequent stops. It wasn't the "Braemar", but Carnival's "Costa Luminosa". 2000 passengers came ashore, so thanks a lot, Carnival!
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Old Mar 23rd 2020, 9:19 pm
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Default Re: The Virus

Originally Posted by Gordon Barlow View Post
2000 passengers came ashore, so thanks a lot, Carnival!
Wait, a couple of posts again, you were full of nostalgia for the measles parties and thinking parents must be longing for virus-parties. Now you're complaining that 2000 people stepped off a plague ship onto your turf. What's the problem - I thought you couldn't wait to get it over with, like Mark Twain.

You guys should come over to mine after all this dies down. I plan to have a great big celebratory polio-party - come along and build up some herd immunity! Bring your own iron lung, mind....
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