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-   Canada (https://britishexpats.com/forum/canada-56/)
-   -   Exchange rate (https://britishexpats.com/forum/canada-56/exchange-rate-442788/)

cneldred Mar 24th 2008 3:04 am

Re: Exchange rate
 
geedee, put the crack pipe down 2.355....i wish. Since we are due to complete on our sale in the UK in a couple of weeks, i do actually think you would see me running down the street naked for that sort of rate.

Montpro,

Although i am actually qualiified to give investment advice on futures and options i am not going to other than say be very careful...due to leverage you can lose a lot more than you put in with F&O. When you buy shares all you can lose is what you paid for them, with F&O all you stump up at first is Initial Margin, from there the loses can spiral out of control.

If you are actively looking to do something like that have a look a somewhere like CMC markets where they will let you dabble for set amounts and give you guaranteed stops.

You are obviously quite new to this sort of trading or else you wouldn't be on here asking me advice. In my opinion you got topped and tailed at the top and bottom of what would be a fair value range. Until we see Bank of England become very aggressive on cutting rates the exchange rate should creep up with Sterling being stronger. If the Bank of England come out and say that they will continue to fight inflation and will not be cutting rates in the near or distant future then the rate will pop above 2.10, maybe even 2.15.

Chris

KMFPod Mar 24th 2008 3:23 am

Re: Exchange rate
 

Originally Posted by cneldred (Post 6101130)
In my wildest dreams i do not expect anything above 2.10 to 2.15 this summer. The Canadian economy is clearly going into a slowdown however the oil boom is going to keep money rolling in. The only thing that would stop that would be the oil price going sub $60 a barrel. Not going to happen.

Since the times of 2.30 plus that has been the biggest driver the price of oil now makes it profitable to harvest the oil sands.

I don't know the software you refer to MTI 4.1. However i do use simular models on a daily basis, i use CQG. These models will map technical analysis, this is the study of historical price data to interept what is going to happen with current price action. The software won't tell you what is going to happen, you have to understand the signal and use that yourself to work out what is going on and target price. This would involve a huge amount of research on your behalf. I have been in the markets for 14 yrs and only use or understand a handful of price models. Technical analysis does work, but that is because it is a self forfilling prophecy, so many people are trading off it that they make it work. However, fundamentals in the markets will always dictate what happens in the long run. Fundamentals, are things like interest rates, fiscal policy etc.

Chris


Chris,

You are a diamond! I echo the sentiments about your valued contribution to this and thank you.

2.10 to 2.15 would be absolutely dandy for us! It would put the house we are drooling over, right on our lap! Just seen the rate drop from 2.04 to 2.01 - not happy:(
Advice well and truly taken about the cost and research of mapping programs. I'll stick to watching the short-term candlesticks for now and pounce on any good advice you guys have at or near the dreamy days of 2.10+

Thanks again for now.

Keith.

geedee Mar 24th 2008 7:18 am

Re: Exchange rate
 

Originally Posted by cneldred (Post 6104516)
geedee, put the crack pipe down 2.355....i wish.

Chris

Er.... missed out a zero.....:o

See it's plummeting again.....:(

chazcanning Mar 26th 2008 7:58 am

Re: Exchange rate
 
:)
back up to $2.04 today quote from moneycorp

zmartin Mar 27th 2008 1:34 am

Re: Exchange rate
 
$2.05 on the BBC website this morning despite the price of oil going back up! Go figure.

geedee Apr 1st 2008 12:54 pm

Re: Exchange rate
 

Originally Posted by zmartin (Post 6118830)
$2.05 on the BBC website this morning despite the price of oil going back up! Go figure.

Yes, currency trading seems to be a black art.... or as predictable as the lottery!

In the last couple of days Brent Crude has dropped to under $100 a barrel, and gold lost $45.75 dropping to $887.75 today alone! All of which, you might think, would help the CAD/GBP rate..... not a bit of it, it's down nearly 3 cents from 2.05 to 2.02.

Exchanging your money seems to be a complete lottery, changing by the minute!

You could be forgiven for thinking that there are just a few at the top who pull the strings and just rake off obscene profits on an hourly basis.......

cneldred Apr 1st 2008 2:55 pm

Re: Exchange rate
 
The reason for the drop, is due to strength returning (finally) to the US $. Oil and gold are priced in dollars therefore, the US$ gains they lose. CAD$ is keeping pace quite well with US $. But also the picture is getting worse for the UK and in particular the housing market. I heard last week that Yourmove have gone bust, and a number of agents in Essex where we moved from were either reducing branches or laying off staff.

I just need it to stay above 2.00 for another 3 weeks. (fingers, legs and toes crossed).

Chris

Surrey Expat Apr 1st 2008 3:03 pm

Re: Exchange rate
 
Conversion Table: GBP to CAD (Interbank rate)

Time period: 03/27/08 to 04/02/08.
Daily averages:
03/27/2008 2.03730
03/28/2008 2.0450
03/29/2008 2.03550
03/30/2008 2.04110

03/31/2008 2.04130
04/01/2008 2.03790
04/02/2008 2.03070

Take off about 2 pennies for the bank exchange.

geedee Apr 1st 2008 3:22 pm

Re: Exchange rate
 

Originally Posted by Surrey Expat (Post 6145658)
Conversion Table: GBP to CAD (Interbank rate)

Time period: 03/27/08 to 04/02/08.
Daily averages:
03/27/2008 2.03730
03/28/2008 2.0450
03/29/2008 2.03550
03/30/2008 2.04110

03/31/2008 2.04130
04/01/2008 2.03790
04/02/2008 2.03070

Take off about 2 pennies for the bank exchange.

Thanks SE, a little better than the BBC! Don't take two pennies off for a bank rate! Use someone like Custom House or XE.... tenths of a penny!

Cnelred, the state of the UK housing market is surely not news.... anyone with half an ounce of common sense could see that two years ago!

The CAD is keeping pace with the USD.... which is rising.... that's just what they don't want! Jobs are being shed left right and centre because of that. The CBC is doing its utmost to get the CAD down against the USD according to the papers in Quebec.... to save jobs!

I'm going to give up and put matters in the hands of fate.... way too difficult to try an guess the markets. I say again, you must have nerves of steel...

KMFPod Apr 1st 2008 3:45 pm

Re: Exchange rate
 
I'm going to give up and put matters in the hands of fate.... way too difficult to try an guess the markets. I say again, you must have nerves of steel...[/QUOTE]

Here Here!!:eek:

Keith

geedee Apr 1st 2008 4:17 pm

Re: Exchange rate
 

Originally Posted by KMFPod (Post 6145729)
I'm going to give up and put matters in the hands of fate.... way too difficult to try an guess the markets. I say again, you must have nerves of steel...

Here Here!!:eek:

Keith[/QUOTE]

:lol::lol::lol:

Surrey Expat Apr 1st 2008 6:25 pm

Re: Exchange rate
 

Originally Posted by geedee (Post 6145691)
Thanks SE, a little better than the BBC! Don't take two pennies off for a bank rate! Use someone like Custom House or XE.... tenths of a penny!

Cnelred, the state of the UK housing market is surely not news.... anyone with half an ounce of common sense could see that two years ago!

The CAD is keeping pace with the USD.... which is rising.... that's just what they don't want! Jobs are being shed left right and centre because of that. The CBC is doing its utmost to get the CAD down against the USD according to the papers in Quebec.... to save jobs!

I'm going to give up and put matters in the hands of fate.... way too difficult to try an guess the markets. I say again, you must have nerves of steel...

The rates I quoted are the Interbank rates, they don't pay those to customers, cheque rate is a couple of pennies under interbank. As a rule Custom House are not far off the bank rate, banks will negotiate.

mclauchlan35 Apr 1st 2008 8:25 pm

Re: Exchange rate
 

Originally Posted by cneldred (Post 6145637)
The reason for the drop, is due to strength returning (finally) to the US $. Oil and gold are priced in dollars therefore, the US$ gains they lose. CAD$ is keeping pace quite well with US $. But also the picture is getting worse for the UK and in particular the housing market. I heard last week that Yourmove have gone bust, and a number of agents in Essex where we moved from were either reducing branches or laying off staff.

I just need it to stay above 2.00 for another 3 weeks. (fingers, legs and toes crossed).

Chris

Also another lender has now withdrawn from new mortgages, whilst lenders are starting to increase their variable rates despite no move in the BOE base rate, which will have some more effect on the UK housing market.

Lack of funds are a massive problems and although the government have put up 10 billion it is thought that the industry needs closer to 30 billion!! things look very bleak for the UK:( IMO

G77 Apr 2nd 2008 11:59 pm

Re: Exchange rate
 
Ouch, back down to 2.00 today :(

Rob_999 Apr 3rd 2008 5:37 am

Re: Exchange rate
 

Originally Posted by G77 (Post 6152608)
Ouch, back down to 2.00 today :(

damn it. I need to transfer funds in the next 2 week for house purchase.


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