Re: Exchange rate
 

Crikey... what just happened? It's shot up to 2.03.... it was 1.99 yesterday? That was a big move. Chris?

Re: Exchange rate
 

Sorry, after getting beaten up yesterday i have taken some time off until next tuesday. So only just got out of bed. Only thing i can think is weekly jobs data out of US which was due at 12.30 UK time or the Candian Leading Indicators numbers due at the same time. One of them must have come in pretty weak for a jump like that.

Chris

Re: Exchange rate
 

Sorry to hear that Chris ( I hope you mean hypothetically beaten up trading wise and not actually!) enjoy your break.

Geedee I knnow how that must sound but it has come straight for "a" horses mouth!!!

Re: Exchange rate
 

Yes, trading wise. To be honest it wasn't too bad, but i always take a day of after a losing day to clear my head. Luckily i only end up with 6 or so days off a year for that reason. Two massive moves in a week and i came out of them net profit. 3 of my former collegues in London weren't so lucky.

Hearing now rumours that Man Financial the biggest Futures clearer in the world are in trouble, closing client accounts who are not prepared to play 4 x margin. The knock on effect is huge, the financial markets lose a masive amount of liquidity and therefore banks and other financial institutions get worse prices when hedging their exposure.

This is round two of the credit crisis.

On the CAD$ hearing Leading Indicators was very weak and lead to number of banks changing forecasts for more rate cuts from Canada.

Chris

Re: Exchange rate
 

Maybe it's because commodities are plunging? Whatever it is, fingers crossed for a continued upward movement.:)

Re: Exchange rate
 

Concern over a potential global recession may lead to a reduction in demand for commodities, especially Oil & Gold. A fall in demand for oil leads to a fall in demand for CAD, hence that price change.

Re: Exchange rate
 

Hi Chris (And All)

I'm knew to this thread having been recommended by Ann m on a linked matter.
Just about to buy a house in Calgary, have £'s earning a bit of interest in the UK and trying to time the move when the rate returns to something a little more respectable!

I've been researching the forex and came across some advice about an MTI 4.1 (or something similar) that creates trend lines and stuff :blink:
In your expert opinion, are such programs any good? I was hoping to get a bit of an insight just before making the plunge and shifting the money over. However, I don't want to invest more time or money into something that might just be pure pants!
We can build a bit of a delay into our purchase if Thursday's hike is likely to be the start of the seasonal recovery. I dare say it's too much to hope for the 'ordinary' 2.25 - 2.30 rates that have been the norm for the last 15-20 years or so?

Pundits here believe the Bank of Canada will knock off another 50 base points at the next meeting. It seems statistics Canada revealed a similar export merchandise defecit akin to the sort seen in 1998 and 2003. Back then the B of C interveined on the base rate interest to devalue the CAD. On those occasions it rose to an eye-watering 2.61 and 2.48 respectively.:eek::thumbup:
What do you reckon of the chances of that heppening this summer? Of course it will need Blighty's base rate to remain stable or rise no doubt? typical then that the UK housing market's on its knees and screaming like a banshee for greater rate cuts... all this is making my head spin:huh:

Cheers.

Keith.

Re: Exchange rate
 

In my wildest dreams i do not expect anything above 2.10 to 2.15 this summer. The Canadian economy is clearly going into a slowdown however the oil boom is going to keep money rolling in. The only thing that would stop that would be the oil price going sub $60 a barrel. Not going to happen.

Since the times of 2.30 plus that has been the biggest driver the price of oil now makes it profitable to harvest the oil sands.

I don't know the software you refer to MTI 4.1. However i do use simular models on a daily basis, i use CQG. These models will map technical analysis, this is the study of historical price data to interept what is going to happen with current price action. The software won't tell you what is going to happen, you have to understand the signal and use that yourself to work out what is going on and target price. This would involve a huge amount of research on your behalf. I have been in the markets for 14 yrs and only use or understand a handful of price models. Technical analysis does work, but that is because it is a self forfilling prophecy, so many people are trading off it that they make it work. However, fundamentals in the markets will always dictate what happens in the long run. Fundamentals, are things like interest rates, fiscal policy etc.

Chris

Re: Exchange rate
 

FYI, i use CQGnet which is a stand alone version run via the internet. This costs me approximately £500 per month. They chuck a number of the most traded markets in free, anything more obscure you have to pay extra for. I also receive a newssquawk service www.ransquawk.com via the net, and pay £250 per month for that. These guys are reading every available newswire (bloomberg, reuters, dow jones etc) and reading out anything market moving. In total those services plus my trading system run to about £2,000 per month.

Chris

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Ah Chris you have so disappointed me, i didn't think you cheated by having all these information sources for you to work with , i thought you just had your crystal ball and the leaves from your morning tea :rofl:

Oh well another dream shattered

steve

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Believe me the crystal ball is well and truely broken at the moment.

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Your crystal ball will come back, it's just interesting times at the moment!

Ta for the feed info, I think I will keep on reading for now!

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Chris

Thanks for sharing your insight on this forum... especially when it costs you and you share for free. It's very much appreciated.

I don't know how you manage to stay sane currency dealing.

Just looked and the pound is up against a lot (CAD now 2.355, AUD 2.20 (!)) but down against the USD and the Euro (sub 1. 28, breached 1.30!)

That obviously means something to you..... but all I want to do is buy a house!!!:curse:

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Hi Chris
Im new to forex and not doing very well. Do you think its worth buying GPB/CAD at the moment or selling? I sold at 1.98 and last night margined out at 2.04 - wrong move i guess.
Cheers
Stewart

Re: Exchange rate
 

this is probably better asked on a specialist forum like www.trade2win.com

Particularly, as the answer can be as long as a piece of string and will include many more factors than just a buy or sell question, plus also different traders will give you different answers.