Re: Exchange rate
 

I'm using Halo, realtor recommended and met them at the emigrate show no hassles so far.

Cheers
Tom

Re: Exchange rate
 

Simon, how are you you OLD devil??

Looks like we may have finally sold our house back in the UK. Hows the business going? Hope things have taken off well and you and your lot have settled in well.

All the best


Chris

Re: Exchange rate
 

Out of interest, how is the budget on Wednesday likely to affect the rate, if at all?:(

Rachel

Re: Exchange rate
 

They could in theory move it but i unless anything shocking comes out then i don't think it will. They will probably increase government borrowing which i see as sterling negative but the effect would be minimal. Can't see them raising taxes, general election soon. Incidentially, this latest move up is a bit of a shock considering oil is still rampant, $108 today. I think it is a case of CAD$ being associated with the US$, and being dragged with it. US numbers out last Friday weren't good, most economists saying US is now in a recession, forecasts are for even more rate cuts from the US.

Chris

Re: Exchange rate
 

Could this be traders trying to pre-empt a commodities correction?

Tom

Re: Exchange rate
 

I see no reason for the price of oil to retreat dramatically. This is the new oil market and we have to get used to it. It will trade $150 a barrel way before it trades $50 a barrel.

I think this move was as a result of economists saying US in recession, the figure the flow of raw materials over the border will slow up and Canada will experience a dramatic slowdown.

Chris

Re: Exchange rate
 

the second part makes sense and is what I expected. I'm interested that you think Oil is not likely to drop much. I am reading as much as I can and there seems to be a feeling that oil is being driven up by people running scared from the whole sub prime fiasco. Supply and demand would say that oil is going to stay quite high but do you think this rate of growth will be maintained?

thanks
Tom

Re: Exchange rate
 

Are you sure about that?

An awful lot of raw materials are going west these days to China and other countries.

Re: Exchange rate
 

I cant provide any verification but I have read that 85% of Canadian exports go to the US although I would expect that to be changing.

Re: Exchange rate
 

Wrong!!! It's actually 86.9% ;):D

China 0.8%
Answers my question don't it? :o

Just found this:

At this website: http://www.cme-mec.ca/national/template_na.asp?p=3

Re: Exchange rate
 

That does tell a story doesn't it, eggs and basket are words that pop into my head.:eek:

Re: Exchange rate
 

Does it ever tell a story, a very scary one. :eek::eek::eek:

Re: Exchange rate
 

Especially when put together with this stat off the same website Steve posted a link to:

Canada's exporters employ over 2 million Canadians directly and another 3 million indirectly.
1 in every 3 jobs in Canada depends on exports.
Some 11 million Canadians are employed in services industries - representing over 73% of total employment in Canada

Re: Exchange rate
 

Now you understand why a recession in the US is going to cause problems for Canada and therefore that explains the current CAD$ weakness.

If it wasn't for the strong oil price i would expect a really good run up on the currency. That factor will moderate any CAD$ weakness, however i certainly think the worst is behind us for the time being.

Chris

Re: Exchange rate
 

My email that I still cannot stop

A winning week for Sterling
- Loonie lower on interest rate cut
- Pound higher on steady base rates

Sterling moved ahead almost immediately from what proved to be the week's low at $1.9450. Having established support at $1.9550 it bounced repeatedly off that level to reach higher and higher peaks; $1.98 on Tuesday night, $1.9850 on Thursday night and topping out on Friday night at $2.00. It was trading above $1.99 when London opened this morning.

The Bank of Canada's decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, from 4.00 to 3.50 per cent, was not a complete surprise. Several analysts had predicted that the BoC would do just that. However, many had looked for just a 25 basis point cut. The Bank's readiness to take a swingeing slice out of Canadian yields was taken as a signal that there must be more slicing in the pipeline. The Loonie took a hit.

Canadian economic data were reasonable. GDP growth slowed in the fourth quarter but that was not a situation unique to Canada. Friday's employment figures showed 43,000 new jobs in February. The strong payrolls data were in sharp contrast with the 63,000 job losses south of the border during the same period.

For once the British Pound managed to keep pace with the Euro for a whole week. This was no mean achievement when the Euro was forging new highs against the US Dollar. The UK data were not electrifying but they were better than the market has become used to seeing. Monday's UK manufacturing PMI was the only one of three (UK, EU and US) that went up on the month. Wednesday's services sector PMI brought another improvement and delivered the highest reading from the same trio.

More important than the economic data was Thursday's interest rate decision from the Monetary Policy Committee. It was not a surprise that the MPC left the Bank rate at 5.25 per cent. The vast majority of forecasters had looked for exactly that outcome. Those same forecasters expect interest rates to go down two or three more times this year. But the fact that there was no cut last week surprised a sufficiently large minority to prompt a quick burst of buying when the bears covered their short positions.

As playing fields go, the one shared by the Canadian Dollar and the Pound is fairly level. Interest rates in both countries are pointing downward because their economies are slowing. In the absence of any compelling reason to do otherwise, buyers of the Canadian Dollar should hedge half their requirements, selling Sterling forward to match expected payment dates.