Exchange rate
Jul 1st 2009, 4:01 am
#2086
Banned
Joined: Jun 2009
Posts: 19
Re: Exchange rate
The moves today have been excessive, but as it is a bank holiday in Canada there will be more volatility in the market, i think we could easily see it back above 1.90 by the end of the week.... but i wouldnt put money in it
Jul 1st 2009, 10:43 am
#2087
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 14,227
Re: Exchange rate
Crowne Currency Exchange are the best I know of. Use them all the time. I'd never go to a high street place.
With regard to the GBP, my feeling is that it will go lower eventually. This house price dead cat bounce won't last beyond the summer, and then the realisation that our economy is saddled with debt for a generation will kill the pound off. We may even see a 1970s style run.
With regard to the GBP, my feeling is that it will go lower eventually. This house price dead cat bounce won't last beyond the summer, and then the realisation that our economy is saddled with debt for a generation will kill the pound off. We may even see a 1970s style run.
Jul 1st 2009, 6:26 pm
#2088
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Apr 2008
Location: Barrie
Posts: 349
Re: Exchange rate
Interesting thought. Just curious as to why you think the CAD$ would go down to, are they as likely to see inflation? Also, I think we are just as likely to see inflation (in consumer goods anyway, not assets) over the next few years.
Jul 2nd 2009, 3:35 am
#2089
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Apr 2005
Location: Saskatoon, Saskatchewan
Posts: 4,104
Re: Exchange rate
They printed money for far too long before the crash, and they'll continue printing money for far too long after the recovery. The next decade could easily be the 70s all over again, except with lower wage inflation due to competition from China, India, etc.
Jul 2nd 2009, 4:03 am
#2090
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Apr 2008
Location: Barrie
Posts: 349
Re: Exchange rate
Given the Fed's record, I would say 'almost 100% inevitable'.
They printed money for far too long before the crash, and they'll continue printing money for far too long after the recovery. The next decade could easily be the 70s all over again, except with lower wage inflation due to competition from China, India, etc.
They printed money for far too long before the crash, and they'll continue printing money for far too long after the recovery. The next decade could easily be the 70s all over again, except with lower wage inflation due to competition from China, India, etc.
Jul 2nd 2009, 4:38 am
#2091
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 14,227
Re: Exchange rate
Given the Fed's record, I would say 'almost 100% inevitable'.
They printed money for far too long before the crash, and they'll continue printing money for far too long after the recovery. The next decade could easily be the 70s all over again, except with lower wage inflation due to competition from China, India, etc.
They printed money for far too long before the crash, and they'll continue printing money for far too long after the recovery. The next decade could easily be the 70s all over again, except with lower wage inflation due to competition from China, India, etc.
Jul 2nd 2009, 6:22 am
#2092
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Apr 2005
Location: Saskatoon, Saskatchewan
Posts: 4,104
Re: Exchange rate
Depends on which assets: inflation of the money supply will end up in the markets _somewhere_, and push up prices there as a result. Significant increases in money supply will eventually raise prices, even if the extra cash goes into bankers' bonuses and billionaires' stock portfolios rather than auto workers' wages.
But declining purchasing power requires either wage deflation or price inflation.
Our purchasing power and net worth will decrease, while costs will rise.
Jul 2nd 2009, 8:17 pm
#2095
Banned
Joined: Jun 2009
Posts: 19
Re: Exchange rate
Its realy moved a hige amount over the past couple of days, its doesnt track the USD that closely, if you look at a graph compared to oil prices you wil see a closer fit!
Jul 2nd 2009, 11:34 pm
#2097
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Dec 2008
Location: VAN VAN COUVER COUVER!!!!
Posts: 498
Re: Exchange rate
canada being rich in oil, metals and minerals will forever find strength in exportation..... but when its primary customers are the americans, if there are no USD with which to buy stuff, then there is little CAD to be made from selling.
hence the link between the two dollars, and to a lesser extent to the Euro / GBP.
lucky then that canada is looking to strenthen trade links with the russians. russia will be eager to buy oil, so it can export more of its gas reserves. frankly, this is preferrable to a russian reliance on their ancient nuke power plants, which remain as their sole alternative for their domestic energy needs.
and canada will be reassurred that russia would be less likely to venture too far in the frozen north and thus threaten any international borders....
hence the link between the two dollars, and to a lesser extent to the Euro / GBP.
lucky then that canada is looking to strenthen trade links with the russians. russia will be eager to buy oil, so it can export more of its gas reserves. frankly, this is preferrable to a russian reliance on their ancient nuke power plants, which remain as their sole alternative for their domestic energy needs.
and canada will be reassurred that russia would be less likely to venture too far in the frozen north and thus threaten any international borders....
Jul 2nd 2009, 11:56 pm
#2098
Forum Regular
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 147
Re: Exchange rate
Looks like its on the way down now.
not sure weather to buy now. or see weather it comes back up.
Ive got a month before I need my money. Should of got it when it was at 1.9
not sure weather to buy now. or see weather it comes back up.
Ive got a month before I need my money. Should of got it when it was at 1.9
Jul 3rd 2009, 12:01 am
#2099
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Dec 2008
Location: VAN VAN COUVER COUVER!!!!
Posts: 498
Re: Exchange rate
this recent down turn is primarily (from what i have seen) due to the UK releasing a bunch of info this week, which inspired absolutely zero confidence.
in contrast, economic data from canada has been next to nothing. the consequence is a net swing in favour of the CAD.
next week, what with UK entities being eager to make up for their myriad failings, plus canada being over their midweek celebrations.... hopefully the trend of last week can restart.....
in contrast, economic data from canada has been next to nothing. the consequence is a net swing in favour of the CAD.
next week, what with UK entities being eager to make up for their myriad failings, plus canada being over their midweek celebrations.... hopefully the trend of last week can restart.....
Jul 3rd 2009, 12:52 am
#2100
Forum Regular
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 147
Re: Exchange rate
That sounds logical. Ill be crossing my fingers as well.
Currecny direct wont offer a forward contract on just 2000 pounds so looks like I will be waiting Till I get to canada and open my account next month before I can transfer anything anyway.
unless anyone knows someone who usually has good rates and will do forward contracts on smaller amounts?
Currecny direct wont offer a forward contract on just 2000 pounds so looks like I will be waiting Till I get to canada and open my account next month before I can transfer anything anyway.
unless anyone knows someone who usually has good rates and will do forward contracts on smaller amounts?
