paulry

Now looks like a good time to make check offshore savings are in a position to be quickly deployed, just in case.

OzTennis

For what it's worth this series of forecasts from the main financial instutions might be of use. The usual disclaimer that exchange rates can go up or down and your money might be at risk so seek independent financial advice and all that applies!

Table of Australian Dollar Exchange Rate Forecasts for end-of-quarter 2015 through 2016:
Institution Q3 '15 Q4 '15 Mid-2016
GBP-AUD
ANZ Research 2.04 2.04 2.17
Lloyds Bank 2.11 2.03 1.92
AUD-USD
Deutsche Bank 0.74 0.70 0.68
ANZ Research 0.74 0.73 0.71
Morgan Stanley 0.71 0.68 n/a
Scotiabank 0.76 0.73 0.74
Danske Bank 0.74 0.73 0.75
Lloyds Bank 0.73 0.76 0.78

Source: https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/aud

And

"The Aus dollar could strengthen in the near-term against the pound sterling and US dollar according to recently published forecasts and tactical notes issued by researchers at ANZ Bank and Westpac.

Those hoping on higher transaction levels in GBP-AUD should note that the now well established uptrend in the exchange rate could be about to reach its 2015 maximum.

Fundamental forecasts we have seen from ANZ are factoring a maximum of 2.04 GBPAUD to be reached in September 2015 where the exchange rate will oscillate around until the end of the year.

However, the GBP will then likely push the AUD to 2.2 by September 2016 as Australian dollar weakness becomes a feature of 2016."

Source: https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/au...-dollar-454354

Beoz

Lloyds have a bit of a hard on for the aussie dollar. Steer clear of them Paulry.

paulry

Think I'll steer clear of them all for now!

...The last 3 months look nice and steady. 'Could do with another 3 just like those

XE.com - GBP/AUD Chart

OzTennis

Good advice, you'll get a much better rate from another bank.

They do a good advert though:

astera

All those crystal ball projections are based on one, big assumption: that the US stock market won't tank during this time. Of course nobody can make a protection that it will, and they still need to give some sorts of projections, so fair enough.

Personally looking at how inflated stock prices are over there I'm not too comfortable with such an assumption, because when the proverbial hits the fan the AUD is going for a loooong bungy jump... So for the time being I wouldn't recommend sitting on the AUD but rather camping out on another currency and waiting for a once-in-many-years opportunity to load up on the AUD.

renth

paulry

That's tantalising...

Beoz

Which stocks do you think are overvalued? Tech stocks?

OzTennis

And perhaps you could be over estimating the effect of the Dow Jones on the AUD/STG exchange rate?

(this is not directed at you but just general comments). As we are all aware there are many, many factors which affect the exchange rate ranging from economic data in Australia, UK, China, USA etc; commodity prices; EU crises such as Greece; interest rates, particularly in Australia and UK; RBA statements and policy; Bank of England statements and policy and so on. What can happen is that factors affecting may move in different directions at the same time e.g. what if the Dow Jones fell and there was better news out of China?

As there are so many factors at play it is extremely difficult to predict what is going to play out but there seems to be consensus among the experts that the AUD will fall a little bit more ($2.20sh) and then perhaps strengthen a little medium term. There's certainly no $2.40/$2.50 predictions and it wouldn't seem wise for anyone to hold out on the basis of expecting this to happen in the near future.

That's good advice about considering cross currency transactions to capitalise on favourable movements, depending on whether you want to move a currency one way or the other.

renth

I predict $2.40/$2.50 (within 18 months). Based on the fact that the RBA will cut rates then cut again plus commodities gurgling down a big deflationary sinkhole. Also from a technical perspective "the trend is your friend" and in this case the trend is strongly in favour of a stronger GBP who are even talking, like the US, about raising rates.

I think the Aussie is about to get royally shafted.

astera

I might be underestimating it in fact. The Aussie Dollar is more prone, or even pretty much dependent, on outside factors. So even if the Aussie economy was the healthiest of all and had a super positive outlook, it would still send the AUD spiralling downwards if other, major economies faced a gloomy near future. It's not the only currency to react this way, personally I think it behaves very similarly to Central Europe where outside factors like global stability and the state of the global economy are more important than domestic factors.

My question is how is Australia shaping its economy for the next decade? Is the emphasis being driven away from resources to a more balanced economy?

The whole resource boom is a bit artificial anyway. In reality Australia is being robbed and plundered, plain and simple. Just look at Norway and how they handle their resources, making them one of the richest nations on the planet. And their sovereign wealth fund is bigger than those from Qatar or Saudi Arabia. Over here the nation is being pillaged instead of racking up enormous wealth for future generations.

paulry

+ 1

DC10

Yes - to home renovation tv programmes and buying and selling overpriced houses to one another. A proven recipe for sustainable economic success the world over.

Beoz

......and what they are selling overseas should incur a Chinese tax for use of a better name. Cream the top of all that Chinese money because obviously, money is no object when you are desperate to get it out of your own country.