OzTennis

? They reported the losses and the gains in monetary terms and as a %. It seems you want them to say the market went up, not quantify it and never report losses? Financial reporters will report ASX/FTSE/Dow Jones etc rises/falls in points, percentages and $bill, £bill or whatever just like sporting reporters give you the scores and a match report.

I surprised you haven't told us about Goldilocks and the 3 Bears as it is a Bear market at the moment.

OzTennis

Umm I changed Jack and Jill's direction because the markets went down and not up.

paulry

The Aussie dollar seems to have been bouncing back these last few weeks. Looks like my 2.5 to 1 prediction (well hope, really) by Christmas aint ganna happen

GarryP

Reduced chance of interest rate rises in the UK, coupled with reduced chances of interest rate falls (maybe even rises) in Oz. Next move is probably driven by what happens in China.

paulry

Very unpredictable. There was once lots of talk that an interest rate rise would happen in the UK before Christmas but that appears to be off the cards for now.

spouse of scouse

After enjoying the benefits of the strong Aussie dollar against the GBP on a few trips to the UK, it was particularly painful to recently purchase and furnish our UK house with AU$.

I'm not particularly savvy with financial matters, so I haven't yet worked out if we'll benefit (personally I mean, it's all about me ) from a strong GBP (relative to AU$) when we move over permanently in a few months. We're going to buy a rental over there (courtesy of my Oz superannuation), and that will help to supplement our retirement income.

But at the moment, we're planning to leave our main source of income, allocated pension from our Oz super, here in Australia. I'm undecided whether the interest gains we'll make relative to investing the money in the UK will outweigh the FX rate when we transfer lump sums over to the UK.

The big bad world of finance is a pain in the arse.

paulry

Our dilemmas have been sort of the same as yours but moving in the opposite direction. One thing I don't regret is waiting for the pound to strengthen against the dollar and for our UK house price to strengthen. Waiting 5 years has meant almost the difference between transferring enough to buy a modest house with 50% deposit and a very nice house with 80% deposit. I would have liked to have waited a bit longer but the tax implications won't allow it - and neither will Mrs Paulry!

Beoz

All this demonstrates the importance of keeping eggs in many baskets ...... which includes currencies. Especially when dealing with currencies and economies based on completely separate needs.

astera

I must admit I'm the "all eggs in one basket" person when it comes to currencies (for savings that is - always leaving some amounts in various currencies for transactions of course).

But overall if you like to play it safe then I agree that you need to spread out the risk and take into account your own circumstances, where you live, etc. A lot of people forget this and for instance take out loans in foreign currencies, even though their primary source of income isn't in that currency. A lot of people around the world went through that painful experience when the Swiss Franc shot up after their central bank became overwhelmed.

Beoz

Yeah. That's a big risk. I've also seen a few take out loans in the currency they earn for foreign property. The rate changes, the repayment changes, oooopps. ....... game over.

OzTennis

The trend of the last year or so appears (in the short to medium term anyway) to be reversing. Today the rate is in the $2.08's. What's happening in Australia on interest rates compared to what is not happening but was expected on interest rates in UK/US, better vibes coming out of China and not so good stats out of UK/US seem to driving the rate over the last week and for a short time at least to come. Here's one analysis:

The Aussie dollar powered to a seven-week high on the view that interest rate differentials would work in its favour for a while longer.
Both the US dollar and pound sterling have suffered against the Australian dollar on the observation that the Bank of England and US Federal Reserve will likely delay raising interest rates until 2016.
"The longer it takes the Fed to raise rates, the longer it could take Britain. That notion caused gains for the pound to lag rivals like the euro, Aussie and loonie, mustering little more than a two-week peak," says Joe Manimbo, market analyst at Western Union.
Positive traction for the pound was also restrained by news of a bigger than expected U.K. trade deficit of £11.1 billion in August, news that reinforced expectations of slower British growth last quarter.
"It also helped that most global stocks soared, whetting market appetite for high-yielders like the Aussie, the developed world’s second-juiciest base rate at 2.0%. Gains for commodity currencies may have limited upside with China not out of the woods while festering global uncertainty also doesn’t bode well for sustainable gains beyond the near term,"

paulry

What an incredible roller coaster ride the GB£ to the AU$ is having. Any guesses how things will develop from here?

Beoz

Anyone's guess

"London is vulnerable to a negative shock. All these people who are 'long' oil and mining companies thinking the dividends are safe are going to discover that they're not at all safe," he said.

http://m.smh.com.au/business/markets/rbs-tells-investors-sell-everything-20160111-gm3ssa.html

astera

I don't see a bright future for the AUD with commodities taking a constant battering and no clear light at the end of the tunnel as to when things will turn around. Especially with China in trouble too.

Oil will remain low in 2016 as well, especially with Iran scheduled to have its embargo lifted.

I would have thought that the GBP would be in a stronger position today, especially with the economy showing some promising signs. Not sure why the UK is being held back in terms of raising interest rates and why the Pound is deemed to have to play in tune with the USD? But also I do not see any reason to raise the rates anyway, at least in the foreseeable future.

Maybe what's hurting the GBP is the constant uncertainty over Cameron's self-proclaimed referendum which he pulled out of his magic hat for no reason. Especially an unnecessary one which is just supposed to be a show of support for our place in Europe, but also one which could backfire is all the stars align a certain way. And then the consequences could be quite tragic.

But in the meantime I wouldn't bet on the AUD suddenly turning around and heading back towards previous historic highs.

paulry

That's generally my thoughts too. I'd say the weaknesses of the AUD are currently greater than GBP. But then again, often perception is everything and reality and logic matters very little when it comes to these kinds of things...