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Is Australia officially in a Recession

Is Australia officially in a Recession

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Old Oct 13th 2012, 3:11 pm
  #211  
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Default Re: Is Australia officially in a Recession

Originally Posted by Amazulu
Originally Posted by commonwealth
how much is iron ore and coal today compared to 5 years ago?
Iron-ore:

October 2007 - USD36.63/t
October 2012 - USD117.00/t


http://www.indexmundi.com/commoditie...-ore&months=60
Interesting graph going back 10 years. I don't know about the pricing of iron, but every year before 2009 the price seems to be arbitrarily set at a particular price for the year - then in 2009 it seems to change and fluctuates. Examples:

2003 (all year) - $13.82
2004 (all year) - $16.39
2005 (all year) - $28.11
2006 (all year) - $33.45
2007 (all year) - $36.63
2008 (all year) - $60.80

Then from December 2008 it changes every month. Perhaps comparing the price between September 2007 and September 2012 is not the best way to look at it?
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Old Oct 13th 2012, 9:11 pm
  #212  
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Default Re: Is Australia officially in a Recession

yes. but u get what i mean right?
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Old Oct 14th 2012, 5:56 pm
  #213  
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Default Re: Is Australia officially in a Recession

Australia still isn't in recession the last time I looked.
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Old Oct 14th 2012, 10:43 pm
  #214  
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Default Re: Is Australia officially in a Recession

Western australia is clearly not or nowhere near recession. New South Wales has been in and out of recession. Queensland is on the verge of recession.
Victoria is probably in recession. Tasmania and South Australia are in one permanent recession...
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Old Oct 15th 2012, 1:36 am
  #215  
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Default Re: Is Australia officially in a Recession

Originally Posted by roaringmouse
Interesting graph going back 10 years. I don't know about the pricing of iron, but every year before 2009 the price seems to be arbitrarily set at a particular price for the year - then in 2009 it seems to change and fluctuates. Examples:

2003 (all year) - $13.82
2004 (all year) - $16.39
2005 (all year) - $28.11
2006 (all year) - $33.45
2007 (all year) - $36.63
2008 (all year) - $60.80

Then from December 2008 it changes every month. Perhaps comparing the price between September 2007 and September 2012 is not the best way to look at it?
Iron-ore is bought and sold in 2 ways - by contract between supplier and buyer and at spot prices. The contract price is negotiated between the miners and steel mills (or their association) and used to be done on a yearly basis. A few years ago (maybe around 2009) they moved over to contract prices being decided every quarter. Spot prices are higher than contract prices, so miners would prefer to sell this way, but contract price gives them certainty. Obviously, steel mills would like not to buy at spot and only do so when they are getting demand for product that they do not have enough iron-ore for. As iron-ore is generally not traded on international markets, there is a lot of cat and mouse during price negotiations. Steel mills will say that they don't see a big demand in future and therefore try and drive the price down etc.
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Old Oct 15th 2012, 3:21 pm
  #216  
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Default Re: Is Australia officially in a Recession

Originally Posted by Pit Bull.
Theres plenty who would like to see Australia go into recession, what about you?


You haven't got a good word to say about it.
What a stupid comment to make. Why would anyone want to see Australia in a recession ? It's certainly the last thing I want and I hope it doesn't happen but, like many posters have pointed out, some parts of Australia are suffering.

You don't even live here and think you know what is going on in this country. I live in the "boom state" and even retailers here, especially those selling goods like furniture, flooring and white goods etc, are struggling. I know this because I have spoken to a few and many are either laying off workers or not taking on new employees.

And we ended up selling our house at a loss in regional NSW (before we moved to Perth) a year ago because prices have plummeted and they still haven't recovered in that part of the world. Also friends living there tell us even more businesses have closed in the past year because people are simply not spending.
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Old Oct 15th 2012, 3:45 pm
  #217  
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Default Re: Is Australia officially in a Recession

I cant see anyone wanting to see a country go into recession, from a personal perspective I have almost all my family and many friends in Australia so definitely not somethin I woukd ever want to see. As has been said some States are already in recession and it is only really one sector in one State keeping the whole country in the black.
It just seems to be a case of being realistic and not sticking your head in the sand, seeing what is happening out there to average families.
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Old Oct 15th 2012, 3:57 pm
  #218  
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Default Re: Is Australia officially in a Recession

Originally Posted by WestLondonWelshman
Western australia is clearly not or nowhere near recession. New South Wales has been in and out of recession. Queensland is on the verge of recession.
Victoria is probably in recession. Tasmania and South Australia are in one permanent recession...
The reason WA and Queensland are not in a recession is mainly down to the Natural Resources each State has..ie Iron Ore, Oil & Gas etc, when we first arrived in WA though it was different though the building sector had no boomed and Mining was not as commercial as it is now. The only knock back in WA is that is it expensive nowadays and not everyone is on Mining Money, we sold our home in Perth just over two years ago, we sold it in the $550,000 region and much smaller homes in the same area are now selling in the $600,000!!!!!! thats a lot of money for young people and even new migrants (unless they are cash rich) to find.
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Old Oct 15th 2012, 5:38 pm
  #219  
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Default Re: Is Australia officially in a Recession

Originally Posted by kips
What a stupid comment to make. Why would anyone want to see Australia in a recession ? It's certainly the last thing I want and I hope it doesn't happen but, like many posters have pointed out, some parts of Australia are suffering.

You don't even live here and think you know what is going on in this country. I live in the "boom state" and even retailers here, especially those selling goods like furniture, flooring and white goods etc, are struggling. I know this because I have spoken to a few and many are either laying off workers or not taking on new employees.

And we ended up selling our house at a loss in regional NSW (before we moved to Perth) a year ago because prices have plummeted and they still haven't recovered in that part of the world. Also friends living there tell us even more businesses have closed in the past year because people are simply not spending.

I think your comment is stupid, if you don't think there's some that would wet themselves to see Australia go into recession, do you think what your describing there isn't going on all over the place, the difference is Perth overall is fairing better than most places, wake up and smell the coffee.
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Old Oct 15th 2012, 6:13 pm
  #220  
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Default Re: Is Australia officially in a Recession

Originally Posted by Pit Bull.
I think your comment is stupid, if you don't think there's some that would wet themselves to see Australia go into recession, do you think what your describing there isn't going on all over the place, the difference is Perth overall is fairing better than most places, wake up and smell the coffee.
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Old Oct 15th 2012, 9:02 pm
  #221  
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Default Re: Is Australia officially in a Recession

Originally Posted by Tr1boy
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Old Oct 15th 2012, 9:19 pm
  #222  
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Default Re: Is Australia officially in a Recession

Originally Posted by brits1
The reason WA and Queensland are not in a recession is mainly down to the Natural Resources each State has..ie Iron Ore, Oil & Gas etc, when we first arrived in WA though it was different though the building sector had no boomed and Mining was not as commercial as it is now. The only knock back in WA is that is it expensive nowadays and not everyone is on Mining Money, we sold our home in Perth just over two years ago, we sold it in the $550,000 region and much smaller homes in the same area are now selling in the $600,000!!!!!! thats a lot of money for young people and even new migrants (unless they are cash rich) to find.
What's worrying me, as a renter waiting patiently to buy as house prices slide, is the fact that Gillard in in India today talking about uranium exports. Now, these are going to be MASSIVE in the future because of power demands, believe me, but my concern is that SA is one of the biggest uranium providers on earth. Ergo, when that kicks off SA will be the big mining boom state, and houses here will stretch far and away beyond everyone's means.
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Old Oct 15th 2012, 9:35 pm
  #223  
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Default Re: Is Australia officially in a Recession

Originally Posted by Zen10
What's worrying me, as a renter waiting patiently to buy as house prices slide, is the fact that Gillard in in India today talking about uranium exports. Now, these are going to be MASSIVE in the future because of power demands, believe me, but my concern is that SA is one of the biggest uranium providers on earth. Ergo, when that kicks off SA will be the big mining boom state, and houses here will stretch far and away beyond everyone's means.
I very much doubt that Uranium mining is going to be anything like comparable to the scale of iron ore and coal in WA. Whilst profitable for the companies that mine it. I can't see it impacting too much on the day to day lives of Adelaideans or significantly impact on housing costs, but if your worried best snap something up quick. I'd be very surprised if Uranium mining has much of an impact on housing costs in Canadian, US or Kazakhstanian properities or those in the Congo...
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Old Oct 15th 2012, 10:09 pm
  #224  
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Default Re: Is Australia officially in a Recession

Originally Posted by WestLondonWelshman
I very much doubt that Uranium mining is going to be anything like comparable to the scale of iron ore and coal in WA. Whilst profitable for the companies that mine it. I can't see it impacting too much on the day to day lives of Adelaideans or significantly impact on housing costs, but if your worried best snap something up quick. I'd be very surprised if Uranium mining has much of an impact on housing costs in Canadian, US or Kazakhstanian properities or those in the Congo...
Can you back up what you say and provide a link?
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Old Oct 15th 2012, 10:28 pm
  #225  
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Default Re: Is Australia officially in a Recession

Originally Posted by Pit Bull.
Can you back up what you say and provide a link?
Common sense, knowledge of current affairs and a 2:1 degree which included a significant amount of economics
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