lumpommer

With prices rising and unemployment rising has recession finally come to Australia.

KJCherokee

Recession is officially two consecutive quarters of negative growth - so no, we're not there yet.

Many professionals and experts around the world believe that a true economic recession can only be confirmed if GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth is negative for a period of two or more consecutive quarters.

The roots of a recession and its true starting point actually rest in the several quarters of positive but slowing growth before the recession cycle really begins. Often in a mild recession the first quarter of negative growth is followed by slight positive growth, then negative growth returns and the recession trend continues.

While the “two quarter” definition is accepted globally, many economists have trouble supporting it completely as it does not consider other important economic change variables. For instance, current national unemployment rates or consumer confidence and spending levels are all a part of the economic system and must to be taken into account when defining a recession and its attributes.

commonwealth

i dont think so.

elice_in_oz

DeadVim

****ed if I know.

commonwealth

recession is only a state of mind.

knockoff nige

If this is a recession then bring on the good times.

PaulandNic

... don't swear!

Not in these parts it aint, altho did see a cloud in the sky recently.

isgraham

No Australia is not in recession officially however things outside of mining are not looking too good and I even read that Rio Tinto are sacking a load of people in Queensland because of falling coal prices. I would guess that with the enormous stockpiles of raw materials in China and that their main trading partner is right up shit creek that things will not be getting better for some time to come.

chris955

The thing about recession is that it rarely directly affects people unless they lose their jobs because of it. It is more complicated in Australia because mining is keeping the country officially out of recession even though unemployment is rising, prices are rising and according to a recent poll people are worried about jobs and the future.
There was an interview yesterday with an economist who was talking about the recession here in the UK, he said although the country was officially in recession unemployment is falling as is inflation. It is how the current economic situation is affecting the average person not what the official figures show.

GarryP

Nope, but as and when China admits things are turning down, well that could be a different matter.

Meanwhile, in the land of the raincloud : http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/poli...ntil-2020.html

lesleys

I don't think you can really claim unemployment is rising. Variations by a few tenths of a percentage point hardly amount to a rise consistent with a recession.

chris955

Yes unfortunately China is the key and it is completely out of the hands of the Government to change anything. Every country in the world will be tightening their belts for some considerable time to come.

chris955

A few tenths of a percentage point actually means potentially 1000's of people and if you look at that graph the trend is upwards so it is rising.

lesleys

Thanks for the maths lesson, but you will also notice that the numbers are oscillating and there is no cumulative increase in unemployment over several months.