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dollar down again!!??

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dollar down again!!??

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Old Dec 2nd 2004 | 12:15 pm
  #16  
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Default Re: dollar down again!!??

It isn't all good news - the US is mostly funded these days by the likes of China and Japan continually buying US bonds, and if the dollar continues to slide those bonds will look like an increasingly poor investment. As I understand it, interest rates will have to rise to make the returns worthwhile and to maintain the flow of foreign capital, which will not be good news if you have an adjustable rate mortgage or a significant credit card debt.
But what the hell do I know, I'm an engineer, not an economist.
 
Old Dec 2nd 2004 | 12:46 pm
  #17  
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Default Re: dollar down again!!??

Do any of you lot worry about the long-term (say 15-25 yrs) prospects for the dollar - especially those of you who may be thinking of retiring to the UK or Europe?

I've been paying into a 401 k for a while and of course any time I meet up with the company rep, he'll say "Don't worry, the dollar won't go anywhere", blah, blah.

But if the $ goes to $2.00 to the GBP or $2.50 to the GBP, that's a huge difference if you're drawing on a US pension while retired in the UK. I mean, imagine you're pulling in $2,000 a month pension (fat chance, but anyway), instead of being worth 1300 quid ($1.50 per), you're looking at 1000 GBP ($2 per), 800 quid ($2.50 per) or, heaven forbid, 666 quid ($3 per)!

Cripes!
 
Old Dec 2nd 2004 | 12:47 pm
  #18  
Franklin
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Default Re: dollar down again!!??

Originally Posted by elfman
It isn't all good news - the US is mostly funded these days by the likes of China and Japan continually buying US bonds, and if the dollar continues to slide those bonds will look like an increasingly poor investment. As I understand it, interest rates will have to rise to make the returns worthwhile and to maintain the flow of foreign capital, which will not be good news if you have an adjustable rate mortgage or a significant credit card debt.
But what the hell do I know, I'm an engineer, not an economist.
Yes, it's great! China bailing out the USofA. With a dollar heading south keeping a fixed exchange rate is going to stretch and stretch their resources. Europe is paying the price too for the US fiscal and trade deficit. It has become a test of wills, who is going to blink first. Bush? China? Europe? Bush is effectively punishing those nations that have (in Bush's mind) refused to work with him; China for not bowing to the US's wish that they stop artificially fixing their exchange rate relative to the dollar; Europe for being very naughtie, particularly France and Germany. Canada is probably off the hook.

Arafat did not understand Bush's mind set; the Europeans are only just beginning to find out along with China and pretty soon Iran. Bush is a wirey fox; people, opposing politicians and other world leaders have grossly underestimated him which in turn has worked very much in Bush's favor. Even some members of Bush's first term cabinet underestimated the man.

Wrap up warm, its going to be a long winter particularly if California splits its electoral votes between the blue and red parties.

Last edited by Patent Attorney; Dec 2nd 2004 at 1:45 pm.
 
Old Dec 2nd 2004 | 1:19 pm
  #19  
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Default Re: dollar down again!!??

Originally Posted by dunroving
Do any of you lot worry about the long-term (say 15-25 yrs) prospects for the dollar - especially those of you who may be thinking of retiring to the UK or Europe?

I've been paying into a 401 k for a while and of course any time I meet up with the company rep, he'll say "Don't worry, the dollar won't go anywhere", blah, blah.

But if the $ goes to $2.00 to the GBP or $2.50 to the GBP, that's a huge difference if you're drawing on a US pension while retired in the UK. I mean, imagine you're pulling in $2,000 a month pension (fat chance, but anyway), instead of being worth 1300 quid ($1.50 per), you're looking at 1000 GBP ($2 per), 800 quid ($2.50 per) or, heaven forbid, 666 quid ($3 per)!

Cripes!

I got worried about this last year. Now, I'm planning for it- we hope to spend half the year in UK and 6 months out here when we retire (if we can ever afford to retire out here). We're fortunate that we'll get both State pensions, UK and US plus hubby's UK company pension- so we'll always have income in pounds and dollars. As for investing now- 401K's are only worth it for pre-tax dollars and company match but when I left my last job I cashed mine out and took the tax hit... and bought gold. Hubby has an IRA- but I don't expect that to perform well in the near future. Rep's won't give you impartial advice- seek an independent financial advisor or do your own research. My money is going into gold during this economic climate....and we are going to buy a house in UK when the market hits a low (our best investment ever has been UK property).
 
Old Dec 2nd 2004 | 2:23 pm
  #20  
Franklin
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Default Re: dollar down again!!??

Originally Posted by Taffyles
I got worried about this last year. Now, I'm planning for it- we hope to spend half the year in UK and 6 months out here when we retire (if we can ever afford to retire out here). We're fortunate that we'll get both State pensions, UK and US plus hubby's UK company pension- so we'll always have income in pounds and dollars. As for investing now- 401K's are only worth it for pre-tax dollars and company match but when I left my last job I cashed mine out and took the tax hit... and bought gold. Hubby has an IRA- but I don't expect that to perform well in the near future. Rep's won't give you impartial advice- seek an independent financial advisor or do your own research. My money is going into gold during this economic climate....and we are going to buy a house in UK when the market hits a low (our best investment ever has been UK property).
Bit of an aside, by y worry when the supervolcano at Yellowstone National Park is going to make another appearance; works on a 600,000 year clock cycle! One billion dead worldwide, 100,000 dead Americans, loads of species wiped out, extrem weather and world wide crop failures (hence the one billion or so death toll). I was going to write a book on it, but never got a "roundtuit", could only find a square one.

Sort of ironic, the global warming theorists are about to meet the King Canute supervolcanoe! It should be funny, but obviously won't be. YNP is now bulging, NASA did a survey a while back and find it was bulging, sure sign things are a cooking beneath YNP. Last eruption was around 640,000 years ago ... so she is 40,000 years overdue and that bulge is a sure sign she is going to pop soon. Sort of funny because the earth's changing weather otherwise operates on a different cyclical time scale. When YNP blows, "man's contribution" will measure less than zip. Here comes global cool down, YNP style. It's going to be a tough long winter and I don't mean that metaphorically.

But don't worry (well, not too much), microbiology/biotechnology and not Flash Gordon will "save the planet". Just wait and see.

Last edited by Patent Attorney; Dec 2nd 2004 at 2:55 pm.
 

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