BenK91

This is gold.

zargof

It appears Elizabeth Warren lives in a society...

scrubbedexpat099

On the plus side 75% of the Iowa count is in.

BritInParis

Excellent progress. At this rate they may even have a candidate nominated in time for the 2024 election

Giantaxe

538's poll of polls has him as 43.2%, lower than any post war president bar Truman at this stage of his term, but near Trump's high. Not sure why Truman's popularity tanked so suddenly at this point?

Will be interesting to see where the polls go over the next couple of weeks.

scrubbedexpat091

So my math might be a tad off so don't hold me to it 100%

Trump roughly 1,111 days in office so far

Truman-
Approx 1,085 days in Vetoed income tax reduction act. Bill passed by Congress over the president's veto the following day.
Approx 1.128 days in Recognized new state of Israel.
Approx 1,170 days in Signed Displaced Persons Act authorizing admission into the United States of 205,000 European displaced persons in the following two years.
Approx 1,171 days in Ordered Berlin airlift, in conjunction with the British, in answer to Russian blockade of the portion of that city occupied by the Western powers. Blockade lasted until 12 May 1949.
Approx 1,201 days in Signed Executive Order 9981, desegregating the United States Armed Forces. The order also established the President's Committee on Equality of Treatment and opportunity in the Armed Services.

I used this website as resource. Might give an idea what caused the popularity drop?

https://www.trumanlibrary.gov/educat...ears-1945-1949

scrubbedexpat099

Hillary has said she will consider the VP position.

Giantaxe

I suspect that opinion polls weren't very frequent back then so big discontinuities in results were more likely. That list is a ton of stuff you could see some voters not being too impressed with.

scrubbedexpat099

Well the Iowa vote is nearly there, however it seems the last votes will be mailed in so could take a little longer.

Anian

If you ever wondered why the Democrats let an insignificant state go first in the primaries, seems to have been a smart choice.

Hiro11

Iowa goes first due to an Iowa state law, not due to Democrats' choice.

Also, Iowa and New Hampshire have traditionally been much more about weeding out candidates who are non-starters than about predicting a future nominee. It's really a chance for the Tom Steyers and Tulsi Gabbards of the world to decide if they really want to keep going.

Giantaxe

New Hampshire also has a state law that it has the first primary election. So the fun will start if Iowa moves to an election. Of course, all this highlights how silly and potentially contradictory these state laws are.

Steerpike

No truer word was ever spoken. Not sure if they can recover from this one ...

Yet another friend of mine - lifelong Democrat - said he thinks Trump will win.

BenK91

I don't see how Trump could lose the 2020 election, it really looks like his to lose. The Democrats look like absolute chaos, the current crop of candidates seem to be doing a very good job of alienating moderate voters (much like Flower-Power Corbyn). There was a good talk this morning on NPR with some liberal, moderate and conservative voters and the general consensus from the non-liberals appeared to be that the word 'free' keeps getting bandied around by the Democrats (again, Corbyn-esque) and that it was concerning to them.

Steerpike

I was on the phone with a good friend in California today. He's a lifelong democrat. He made the comment 'God help us if Sanders get in'. I asked him who he'd prefer, he laughed and said none of the candidates. I asked him about Bloomberg, and he said yes, he'd be OK with Bloomberg. This seems to be a general trend with all my buddies, all of whom I'd describe as 'moderate' democrats. I'm hoping we can put this disastrous impeachment process behind us and spend the next several months focusing on the ISSUES such as healthcare, guns, climate, etc - areas where the democrats can easily distance themselves from Trump. There is still time but we need to get focused and get moving.

The 'optics' of Pelosi last night (tearing up the speech) were awful.