Anian

This is completely true, but the media needs people to keep paying attention so they will go on about how close it is until Clinton has won. If you look at the college votes then you see how far behind Trump really is. He needs to win almost all of the contested states, the locked-in blue states are just too much to counter. It would take something monumental to shift them even to contested. The Benghazi report was another flop, I don't think they'll be able to pin the email scandal on Clinton either.

RoadWarriorFromLP

In a given election year, about 10% of Democrats will cross party lines, for whatever reason.

The reality is that there aren't that many Sanders supporters. He lost the primary in a popular vote landslide, and as usual, not many Democrats were so fired up that they bothered to vote in the primary in the first place. For every Bernie Bro who is having a meltdown, there will be a woman or minority voter who is fearful enough of Trump to vote against him.

Wintersong

Ah, the voice of reason

Steerpike

So the RCP poll, and the Nate Silver analysis, that shows Johnson getting over 7%, are not reflective of what will happen in November? Do you see his poll numbers dropping or just the people not showing on the day?

RoadWarriorFromLP

It's early days. My guess is that Johnson won't get anything close to 7%. As the election approaches, the either-or nature of the election will crystallize positions for many of those alleged third-party supporters and the undecideds.

We should also remember that there are voters who simply don't care very much either way. They don't love or hate either candidate or have the feelings of polarization that are felt by the diehards. Unfortunately, Trump is seen as being the stronger candidate for the economy (yes, these people are uninformed) and that's often what drives elections, but Trump has the unique feature of being more frightening and personally irritating than most.

Understand that Nate Silver is just setting odds, as would a bookmaker. The number from him that counts is that he has Clinton with an 80% chance of winning the election (although I suspect that figure will decline somewhat as November approaches.)

Steerpike

Well I hope you are right, because all the swing states I looked at show Johnson+Trump getting more than Clinton, so if Johnson supporters switch to Trump, there could be trouble.


Nothing would make me happier than to see Trump lose decisively. And now there's the added bonus that maybe - just maybe - it will silence the likes of 'The Mad Pooper', because nothing else seems like it will have that effect.

RoadWarriorFromLP

My guess is that the GOP will take some hits due to lower turnout. The GOP usually benefits from low turnout because that equates to Democrats staying home, but this time may be different.

I wouldn't expect Johnson to get the 7%, but it may be a signal that there is an element of GOP discontent that is so meaningful that it will lead to a voter boycott that is just large enough to matter. That won't translate into Johnson getting 7% of the vote, but it may mean that 1-2% of it goes to Johnson while Trump is denied some large element of whatever's left of it by whatever means.

The GOP notables who are either claiming that they will not vote for Trump or else are lending support to someone else are probably not going to move that many voters, but it may move a meaningful fraction of them. The rebellion is clearly underway.

UnknownPleasures

Honestly if Johnson and his VP Weld flipped their ticket they'd be far better off. Weld is a statesmen and brings a mature outlook to this otherwise silly election. If the libertarians are allowed into the debates, they can do damage, mainly to Trump

sir_eccles

They're unlikely to change the rules to let them in the debate.

Wintersong

Personally, I think those rules are ridiculous. Libertarians and Greens should be allowed to have a presence at the debates. I understand that the debates can't become a free for all, but those are 2 fairly major, well established parties which should be given a chance to present their policies to the nation.

sir_eccles

Hey, who moved us to TIO. The quality of argument is going to go right down now!

(Insert Monty Python sketch).

Wintersong

Not sure why the US residents can't have their own thread about the US election

Wintersong

Looks as though the Clinton campaign isn't the only one plagued by rape allegations... Why The New Child Rape Case Filed Against Donald Trump Should Not Be Ignored

SultanOfSwing

Wait what? This was already in the off-topic section of the US forum. Makes no sense to move it here, since it pertains to a US election.

But what do I know?

Leslie

Nobody was even arguing.