Historic moment: EU Referendum
#16
Re: Historic moment: EU Referendum
Mail
Well if your talking GDP the Eurozone area is still below its peak 2008.
whereas the US is 10% above its peak of 2007.
The US is also currently in an interest rate tightening cycle whereas the Eurozone has been carrying out quantative easing along with a negative interest rate policy for some time
Also growth forecasts for 2016-2020 put the EU below both the US and the UK, so your economic argument is a bit weak.
Also the Mail and Express are not responsible for the rise of the far right parties, so not sure what your point is there. Unless you think these papers are widely read in France and Austria?
I suppose the daily mail and express have a lot to do with that perception.
But as a matter of public record, the Eurozone is the world's 2nd largest economy by a narrow margin, and is currently beating the US AND the UK in terms of growth, and the refugee "crisis" has certainly slowed to a snail's pace. But not because of what Germany or France or anyone else did, but because of what the EU did. Perfect? Nothing is, but at least it's under control.
In the end, Europe will be amongst the world's heavy hitters, whether it's perfect or not. Britain can choose to be an influential member of it, or simply become "Little England. I strongly suspect it will choose the former. For now, anyway.
But even if I'm right, Britain's fear of Europe will only enable it to delay the inevitable. The good news is that once Europe manages to succeed despite Britain's fear of it, Britain will end up with a great divorce deal, unlike what it's shooting for now.
But as a matter of public record, the Eurozone is the world's 2nd largest economy by a narrow margin, and is currently beating the US AND the UK in terms of growth, and the refugee "crisis" has certainly slowed to a snail's pace. But not because of what Germany or France or anyone else did, but because of what the EU did. Perfect? Nothing is, but at least it's under control.
In the end, Europe will be amongst the world's heavy hitters, whether it's perfect or not. Britain can choose to be an influential member of it, or simply become "Little England. I strongly suspect it will choose the former. For now, anyway.
But even if I'm right, Britain's fear of Europe will only enable it to delay the inevitable. The good news is that once Europe manages to succeed despite Britain's fear of it, Britain will end up with a great divorce deal, unlike what it's shooting for now.
whereas the US is 10% above its peak of 2007.
The US is also currently in an interest rate tightening cycle whereas the Eurozone has been carrying out quantative easing along with a negative interest rate policy for some time
Also growth forecasts for 2016-2020 put the EU below both the US and the UK, so your economic argument is a bit weak.
Also the Mail and Express are not responsible for the rise of the far right parties, so not sure what your point is there. Unless you think these papers are widely read in France and Austria?
#17
Banned
Joined: Feb 2011
Location: Mallorca
Posts: 19,367
Re: Historic moment: EU Referendum
Mail
Well if your talking GDP the Eurozone area is still below its peak 2008.
whereas the US is 10% above its peak of 2007.
The US is also currently in an interest rate tightening cycle whereas the Eurozone has been carrying out quantative easing along with a negative interest rate policy for some time
Also growth forecasts for 2016-2020 put the EU below both the US and the UK, so your economic argument is a bit weak.
Also the Mail and Express are not responsible for the rise of the far right parties, so not sure what your point is there. Unless you think these papers are widely read in France and Austria?
Well if your talking GDP the Eurozone area is still below its peak 2008.
whereas the US is 10% above its peak of 2007.
The US is also currently in an interest rate tightening cycle whereas the Eurozone has been carrying out quantative easing along with a negative interest rate policy for some time
Also growth forecasts for 2016-2020 put the EU below both the US and the UK, so your economic argument is a bit weak.
Also the Mail and Express are not responsible for the rise of the far right parties, so not sure what your point is there. Unless you think these papers are widely read in France and Austria?
The fact remains, that Europe will be a world economic power. In fact, it already is, and nobody's going to allow it to fail. World's largest economy
Brexit is all but entirely about nationalism, which is one of the hurdles Europe still needs to overcome. Fortunately, Europeans still remember the "good old days" and harbour a far more destructive view of the "benefits" of reckless nationalism. They remember Hitler and Mussolini and Franco. And those that are too young to remember, look at the world with open eyes, questioning why their country is so much better than any of the others. Especially when reality shows perfectly well that it isn't. Not to mention the enormous benefits the EU has clearly brought to Europeans.
Many Brits, on the other hand, tend to cling to the "good old days" of the empire, dismissing the reality that it's a different world now, and isolationism and overt nationalism won't make you many friends. Particularly in Europe. And others, such as the US and China, are already beginning to view Britain as increasingly "irrelevant" on the world stage. But that's what we (unwittingly) asked for. So what could we expect?
But no fear, there will come a day when Europe literally hands the UK a very compelling ultimatum, offering all kinds of posh gifts as an incentive, such as a comprehensive free trade agreement. Now move along and salute the union jack. We have other shit to worry about.
#18
Re: Historic moment: EU Referendum
Gosh 4am in the morning.... Too close to call.... +/- More than 40% of the vote to come in. Riveting stuff!!!
JR Mogg made a good point IMO ... Roughly he said, 'If this club will kneecap you if you leave, its not a club you should be a part of'
Let's see if we remain a part of this club or not, too close to call.
However to be positive
1. Good voter turnout, even in poor weather... Phew!
2. Hats off to David Dimbleby... I think he has done a great job over the past few months. Question time et al, good to see him presenting at this historic time IMO. BBC doing a good job as usual with all the commentary, visuals Jeremy Vine's analysis etc etc.
Too close to call.... I am up till the end!!!
Jon
JR Mogg made a good point IMO ... Roughly he said, 'If this club will kneecap you if you leave, its not a club you should be a part of'
Let's see if we remain a part of this club or not, too close to call.
However to be positive
1. Good voter turnout, even in poor weather... Phew!
2. Hats off to David Dimbleby... I think he has done a great job over the past few months. Question time et al, good to see him presenting at this historic time IMO. BBC doing a good job as usual with all the commentary, visuals Jeremy Vine's analysis etc etc.
Too close to call.... I am up till the end!!!
Jon
#19
Re: Historic moment: EU Referendum
I just put a special bottle of champers in the fridge...
In a few hours I will have a RATE 'party'
CommiseRATE
CelebRATE
All welcome, if you agree with me or not, because that's what a modern democracy is about....
Agree to disagree, and still be friends.
Jon
In a few hours I will have a RATE 'party'
CommiseRATE
CelebRATE
All welcome, if you agree with me or not, because that's what a modern democracy is about....
Agree to disagree, and still be friends.
Jon
#21
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Nov 2010
Location: Coventry
Posts: 437
Re: Historic moment: EU Referendum
I'm with you there Jon. Still friends and any excuse for a party.
#22
Re: Historic moment: EU Referendum
Encouraging news... we can and will survive this... and come out OK.
http://britishexpats.com/forum/spain.../#post11982578
Post 14
Jon
http://britishexpats.com/forum/spain.../#post11982578
Post 14
Jon
#23
Re: Historic moment: EU Referendum
Well, as Scotland voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU which has prompted cries for new independence referendum there; since London voted overwhelming for Remain, I propose that London holds an independence referendum and goes it alone within the EU.
#24
Just Joined
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 3
Re: Historic moment: EU Referendum
Well I'm sat in the north east where it was 65-35 in favour of leaving. I can tell you now this is a vote against austerity up here. The government just dumps refugees in this area and does not subsidise their welfare. Leaving the local councils to pick up the bill.
Bad decision made for the wrong reasons.
Bad decision made for the wrong reasons.
#25
Just Joined
Joined: Aug 2015
Posts: 16
Re: Historic moment: EU Referendum
My 20 something daughter has a brilliant plan for "solving politics".
Voting rights should only be for 19-59 year olds.
The rest are either too young or too senile.
Voting rights should only be for 19-59 year olds.
The rest are either too young or too senile.
#26
Re: Historic moment: EU Referendum
Already got 110,000 signatures on the UK Gov petitions webpage
#27
Re: Historic moment: EU Referendum
I could be wrong, but this is very ironic. I think its an EU rule that a petition with over 'x' signatures needs to be debated openly in government.
We are still in the EU as a full member till we leave in 2-3+ years so bound by all the rules etc. So there may be 'legs' to this requiring us to follow this up properly!
Both the London and the replay EU referendum
Again I could wrong about it being an EU rule, but it rings a bell.
Its the 'Irish way' keep doing referenda till the answer happens!
Jon
We are still in the EU as a full member till we leave in 2-3+ years so bound by all the rules etc. So there may be 'legs' to this requiring us to follow this up properly!
Both the London and the replay EU referendum
Again I could wrong about it being an EU rule, but it rings a bell.
Its the 'Irish way' keep doing referenda till the answer happens!
Jon
Last edited by Jon-Bxl; Jun 25th 2016 at 5:30 pm.
#28
Re: Historic moment: EU Referendum
I could be wrong, but this is very ironic. I think its an EU rule that a petition with over 'x' signatures needs to be debated openly in government.
We are still in the EU as a full member till we leave in 2-3+ years so bound by all the rules etc. So there may be 'legs' to this requiring us to follow this up properly!
Both the London and the replay EU referendum
Again I could wrong about it being an EU rule, but it rings a bell.
Its the 'Irish way' keep doing referenda till the answer happens!
Jon
We are still in the EU as a full member till we leave in 2-3+ years so bound by all the rules etc. So there may be 'legs' to this requiring us to follow this up properly!
Both the London and the replay EU referendum
Again I could wrong about it being an EU rule, but it rings a bell.
Its the 'Irish way' keep doing referenda till the answer happens!
Jon
#29
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 5,630
Re: Historic moment: EU Referendum
Given the number of signatures do far the MP David Lammy has already called for this to be debated in parliament, doubt it will come to anything but for the sake of logging on and signing up to it what's to lose.
#30
Re: Historic moment: EU Referendum
Under the 'EU way' (I think) we may need to debate a new referendum due to the petition rules.
Under the 'Irish way' the EU discussion dragged on with multiple referenda, till the elite got what they wanted, after being snubbed, taking enough people with them who lost initially.
Sorry to the 48% that lost this. I know how upset you are, and we will definitely have many troubles expected/unexpected. In the course of the next 3 years, or so, many Brexiters will have voter regret. ALREADY our government and opposition is facing a crisis, there is a threat to our United Kingdom. Already both sides are backtracking, and word smithing all the fear/benefits statements they made pre-referendum. Politicians!!
Note there's nothing to say that the EU system, will not have huge problems also. We have been lurching from many over the years, financial crisis, Greece, PIIGS, migration, ERM, etc etc. (Too many to mention) Remain is NOT calm sailing. How many times have we seen on TV, multiple meetings of finance ministers, leaders etc on the steps in Brussels making stressed comments after e.g all night (quote) 'Crisis meetings'!
Ibelieve that we need to get the broom out and clear the mess, and all this is part of a long clean-up process. I don't deny that we will have mess at the end, but I believe it won't be as bad as this one. Lesser of two 'evils'. I also believe there will be some pain on the way.
During pre-electioneering processes we get lots of blather about how wonderful life will be if you vote for them. The reality is that the choice is the the lesser of 'evils'. E.g voting goes 40% to A, 30% to B, 20% to C. The loser number 2 (B) will say 'you didn't get 60% of the vote!'. The winner says 'Ah yes, but you didn't get 70%!!'
But it was a historic decision, perhaps the biggest decision we have ever made, and we are sailing into new waters. But that's our history, we travelled from our small islands, through stormy uncharted waters, with lots of problems and dispute, dissension, debate and even infighting.
By eventually coming together we did pretty well. I hope in time we can put this highly emotional charged period of debate in context with the democratic decision made, and work together for the next chapter of our history.
Its the bulldog spirit....
...its the 'British way'.
I prefer it to the other 'ways'
Jon
Last edited by Jon-Bxl; Jun 26th 2016 at 10:59 am.