US Presidential election
#121
Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,107
Re: US Presidential election
Lots can happen yet, particularly with jobs reports and the debates but Nate Silver, best analyst by far because he uses extremely well modelled and weighted data rather than anecdote and opinion, now rates Obama's chances of winning at over 77%, highest so far since the campaign has been underway...
#122
Joined on April fools day
Joined: Apr 2012
Location: 30 miles from a decent grocery store.
Posts: 10,642
Re: US Presidential election
Lots can happen yet, particularly with jobs reports and the debates but Nate Silver, best analyst by far because he uses extremely well modelled and weighted data rather than anecdote and opinion, now rates Obama's chances of winning at over 77%, highest so far since the campaign has been underway...
#123
Re: US Presidential election
Interesting take...could have been written by Fox News...
http://www.theonion.com/articles/oba...line%3Adefault
http://www.theonion.com/articles/oba...line%3Adefault
#124
Joined on April fools day
Joined: Apr 2012
Location: 30 miles from a decent grocery store.
Posts: 10,642
Re: US Presidential election
Interesting take...could have been written by Fox News...
http://www.theonion.com/articles/oba...line%3Adefault
http://www.theonion.com/articles/oba...line%3Adefault
#126
Re: US Presidential election
As of now, the election could go either way. Imho, it's a coin toss on whos going to clinch it.
I hope R_money doesn't win because there is going to be cuts in social programs for the poor, welfare for the rich and probably war with Iran and or Syria.
I hope R_money doesn't win because there is going to be cuts in social programs for the poor, welfare for the rich and probably war with Iran and or Syria.
Last edited by Boomhauer; Sep 7th 2012 at 9:12 am.
#127
Banned
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 88
Re: US Presidential election
No, they are just making it appear like a horse race. It's over.
I posted over two years ago that it's Romney vs Obama and Obama wins. It's only an illusion that the American people select their president.
And i'm not a big conspiracy theorist
I posted over two years ago that it's Romney vs Obama and Obama wins. It's only an illusion that the American people select their president.
And i'm not a big conspiracy theorist
#128
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 13,553
Re: US Presidential election
Just had another glance/listen to Oblairma's speech........... OH MY GOD - he mentioned wind turbines! If Romney-Ryan have been doing their homework, they should be able to destroy him on that one............. those things are useless.......
#130
Banned
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 88
Re: US Presidential election
On a local message board when they started talking about this dog and pony show. I refused to get involved in the discussion, and i'm only doing it now to inform my new friends here that Obama will be the president of The United States of America for another four years..
#131
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 13,553
Re: US Presidential election
On a local message board when they started talking about this dog and pony show. I refused to get involved in the discussion, and i'm only doing it now to inform my new friends here that Obama will be the president of The United States of America for another four years..
#132
Banned
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 88
Re: US Presidential election
There will not be a Mormon in the White House- If you think Star Trek is a bunch of shit, try looking into that religion. It's absurd
#134
Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,107
Re: US Presidential election
I think you're missing the point of Nate Silver's approach. He does take significant account of opinion polls with a very sophisticated analysis of historical performance of the pollster, sample size and composition etc. If the polls are accurate most of the time then how come they say different things? The race is close, without a doubt but that does not make it a "toss-up". That is just lazy and/or ill-informed analysis. Obama is winning, not by much but the evidence of the national polls and particularly of the swing-state polls is unambiguous. A few polls and pollsters have Romney ahead some or all of the time (the notorious Rasmussen in particular) but when most of the polls say Obama is ahead most of the time then it is not a question of statistical error. A win is a win as Al Gore can tell you.
#135
Re: US Presidential election
I think you're missing the point of Nate Silver's approach. He does take significant account of opinion polls with a very sophisticated analysis of historical performance of the pollster, sample size and composition etc. If the polls are accurate most of the time then how come they say different things? The race is close, without a doubt but that does not make it a "toss-up". That is just lazy and/or ill-informed analysis. Obama is winning, not by much but the evidence of the national polls and particularly of the swing-state polls is unambiguous. A few polls and pollsters have Romney ahead some or all of the time (the notorious Rasmussen in particular) but when most of the polls say Obama is ahead most of the time then it is not a question of statistical error. A win is a win as Al Gore can tell you.